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ECONOMY

Business confidence hits new record high

German business confidence began the new year at record highs, the Ifo institute said on Friday, good news for the 17-nation eurozone as it grapples with a dogged debt crisis.

Business confidence hits new record high
Photo: DPA

Ifo’s closely tracked reading of business sentiment climbed to 110.3 points in January from 109.8 points in December, an Ifo spokeswoman said, its eighth consecutive increase.

It was also the second straight record high since the country’s reunification in late 1990, even though the December level was revised slightly lower from an initial reading of 109.9 points.

Ifo also polls companies about expectations for the coming six months, with this index climbing to a record 107.8 points from 106.8 in December, beating analyst forecasts for 106.5 points.

“The German economy has started the year with great vigour,” Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn said in a statement.

The institute polls 7,000 German manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail companies each month to establish the barometer of business sentiment. The figures backed up the ZEW index of German financial market confidence earlier this week, which jumped to its highest level since July 2010 at 15.4 points.

“The firms are just as satisfied with their current business as they were in December and they have given more favourable assessments of their business prospects for the coming half year,” Sinn said.

He noted that in the manufacturing sector, the “the business climate has clearly improved,” and firms said they planned to hire more staff.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a more modest increase in the overall index to 110 points.

The German government has forecast economic growth of 2.3 percent this year, following a post-reunification record of 3.6 percent in 2010, which should give traction to some eurozone neighbours as well.

There were nonetheless a couple of shadows in the data. A sub-index that measures companies’ assessments of their current situation dipped very slightly for the first time since February 2010, suggesting sentiment might be reaching a plateau.

Substantial drops in sub-indices for the wholesale and retail sectors also cast doubt over the extent to which Germany’s economic recovery would spread to consumer spending.

Those categories had shown improvements in December. A steady fall in unemployment, plus higher wages, have lead to forecasts of a long-awaited pick-up in consumption to support exports and investment as growth drivers.

Those two factors are being underpinned by global growth and low interest rates adopted at the height of the global financial crisis to help get economies back on track. Low interest rates also help debt-laden eurozone countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer noted that the European Central Bank’s record low benchmark interest rate of 1.0 percent would probably remain in effect for much of this year, despite recent indications that the ECB was taking a harder line on rising inflation.

Other analysts viewed the latest Ifo release from different angles, with Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics saying that although Germany was doing well, “that might not help its neighbours very much.”

UniCredit economist Andreas Rees pointed, however, to “a reviving of the good old Franco-German economic axis.”

“German and French companies are powering ahead in Europe, thereby reinforcing the upswing of each other,” Rees said.

ING senior economist Carsten Brzeski said a German “investment upturn should finally materialise,” and added that with job growth, “the conditions to initiate a virtuous circle have hardly been better in the last fifteen years.”

AFP/ka

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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