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ELECTION

Greens overtake SPD as strongest opposition

The Greens' claim to being Germany’s main opposition party was bolstered on Wednesday by a new poll putting them ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats for the first time ever.

Published: 6 October 2010 12:15 CEST

Greens overtake SPD as strongest opposition

Photo: DPA

The Forsa poll taken for news magazine Stern and broadcaster RTL put the environmentalist Greens’ support on 24 percent – one point ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD).

The result is a shot in the arm for the Greens’ claim to have become the strongest opposition to Angela Merkel’s ruling centre-right coalition.

The Greens appear to be benefiting from the SDP’s slide, having gained one of the two points lost by the SDP since last week’s poll. The SPD dropped from 25 percent a week ago to 23 percent this week, while the Greens gained a point from 23 per cent to 24 percent.

The turnaround represents a major shift in Germany’s political landscape, as the SPD has always been regarded – along with Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) – as one of the dominant Volksparteien or “people’s parties.”

Merkel’s Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union picked up the other point lost by the SDP to poll 31 percent of the vote. Their junior coalition partners the Free Democrats continue to languish on a paltry five percent of the vote.

Manfred Güller of the Forsa Institute told Stern that the SDP’s efforts to appear more left-wing than they actually are has left voters feeling the party is misrepresenting itself.

“It’s not the claims against the government’s energy decisions or their criticism of the changes to Hartz IV that seem to be the problem, it’s that many important SPD party members are far too centrist,” he said.

Güllner believes that the Greens new found strength in the changing political climate following the September 2009 elections comes from their top-level politicians such as Jürgen Tritten and Renate Künast, who appear solid and trustworthy to voters.

“The Greens are benefiting from the weakness of the other parties” added Güllner. “They’re picking up voters from the SPD, but also from the CDU coalition.”

Overall, however, the left continues to dominate the polls, with the Greens and SDP jointly polling 47 percent and Merkel’s CDU/CSU-FDP coalition reaching 36 percent.

The Forsa Institute, one of Germany’s leading pollsters, surveyed 2,501 people between the 27th September and 1st October.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.