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ECONOMY

Surprise rise in Swedish bankruptcies

Bankruptcies rose 15 percent in September, snapping the streak of declining bankruptcies observed so far this year.

Bankruptcies increased particularly in metropolitan counties, which earlier had been the driving force behind the decrease in bankruptcies, business and credit information agency UC reported on Wednesday. However, the number of bankruptcies in 2010 so far has declined by 12 percent overall.

The number of business failures rose to 487, an increase of 64 or 15 percent compared with same month in 2009.

“The number of bankruptcies in September breaking the trend and increasing instead is a fact, but it would be unfortunate to make too much of the figures for a single month. Since so many other economic indicators are pointing up, so it appears to be more of a temporary increase,” said Roland Sigbladh, market director at UC.

“Primarily, small companies with few employees and revenues of several million kronor have been hardest hit by the recession, with bankruptcies as a result. Many of them have fought their way through the crisis, but some of them have now reached a point where they can no longer run the company,” he added.

In the first three quarters of 2010, 4,547 businesses have gone bankrupt, compared with 5,146 in the first three quarters of 2009. In particular, Stockholm and Skåne counties experienced a sharp increase in corporate bankruptcies in September.

However, even Västra Götaland in western Sweden and several other counties had more bankruptcies in September compared with last year, but the vast majority of counties saw considerably fewer bankruptcies than the previous year.

Signs point to continued improvements in economic activity, especially in Stockholm, and for the first time since 2008, businesses in the region are increasing the number of employees they have.

The growing number of bankruptcies in September can be mainly attributed to the construction industry and trade and private service companies. However, so far in 2010, virtually all sectors have made substantial recoveries.

Wholesale and retail trade already took off last year, largely due to strong consumption-led growth, helping many trade enterprises avoid falling into insolvency. The private service sector is also among the industries during the year that has seen declining bankruptcies and believes increasing demand will continue in the future.

“The construction industry is a competitive sector in which bankruptcy vulnerability is higher than in many other industries. Within this sector, it was still very tough, but in recent months, it appears that the recovery has gained momentum,” said Sigbladh.

The economic development outlook for Swedish business remains positive for most aspects. At the same time, glimpses of European storm clouds are cause for concern, including high fiscal deficits and weak growth in some countries, affecting in particular Swedish export companies.

The number of companies in Europe that go bankrupt is expected to grow over the coming months and even if the Swedish economy is in a much better position than many other countries, it remains to be seen how business bankruptcies in Sweden will unfold.

Consequently, UC is maintaining a forecast of a 10 percent decline in business bankruptcies compared to last year.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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