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ECONOMY

ECB encouraged by economic data, German industrial gains

European Central Bank chief economist Jürgen Stark has said "the worst is over" after a key ECB loan deadline passed smoothly and German data showed industrial production in Europe's top economy had soared in May.

ECB encouraged by economic data, German industrial gains
ECP president Jean-Claude Trichet. Photo: DPA

The European Central Bank insists the eurozone will not fall back into recession, saying the worst of the debt crisis is past and other economies should now be fixing their public finances.

ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet cautioned on Friday that “it is still too early to declare the crisis over,” but added: “The latest signs that we are receiving from the economy are encouraging.”

The ECB officials spoke at a Frankfurt gathering of analysts, academics and media against a backdrop of continued speculation over the eurozone’s future after a debt crisis that began in Greece spread to other weaker member states.

The latest chapter in the crisis will be “stress tests” of European banks to determine if they can withstand a major shock like the default of a key debtor or another serious economic downturn.

Tests of 91 banks, accounting for 65 percent of the European banking system, are to be released on July 23 amid hopes they will ease tensions on markets where many investors fear the banks may have hidden some of their problems under the carpet.

Meanwhile, pressure from the ECB and the markets has forced eurozone governments to take sometimes draconian measures to put their public finances back on a sound footing, slashing spending to howls of protest.

Authorities in the United States and elsewhere have argued it is too soon to tighten policy in this way, however, because it might provoke a “double dip” recession.

“We must be flexible in adjusting the pace of consolidation and learn from the consequential mistakes of the past when stimulus was too quickly withdrawn and resulted in renewed economic hardships and recession,” US President Barack Obama wrote in June.

Trichet and Stark fired a broadside at such views on Friday, with Trichet saying: “Just like consumers and countries, governments cannot live beyond their means forever.”

He quoted John Maynard Keynes, an icon of those who advocate state stimulus, as saying in 1937: “Just as it was advisable for the government to incur debt during the slump, so for the same reasons is it now advisable that they should incline to the opposite policy.”

Trichet noted taxpayers on both sides of the Atlantic had incurred risk equal to more than one-quarter of total annual economic output to prevent a financial meltdown and warned starkly, “We won’t do that twice.”

Stark called the debt crisis “a wake-up call” to eurozone governments, which he said were now serious about fiscal reforms and broader structural changes as well.

“In leading economies in the world, I don’t see this commitment to fiscal consolidation, I see the contrary,” the ECB economist said, adding that more fiscal stimulus “in the end will turn out not to be sustainable.”

He also challenged a downbeat International Monetary Fund growth forecast for the eurozone released last week, saying, “We see a bias here, that the IMF has not caught up to the reality in Europe.”

The Fund’s latest forecast predicts 2010 growth of 3.3 percent in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, 9.2 percent in developing Asia and just 1.0 percent in the eurozone.

“The IMF in my view is underestimating the strength of the recovery in the euro area” and other regions of the world, Stark said.

Barclays Capital managing director Julian Callow told AFP he thought the ECB was “trying to strike a more positive note here, which in turn should help to stabilise financial markets.”

“Trichet does not have the demeanour of someone who is very concerned about the unveiling of the bank stress test results,” he added.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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