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ECONOMY

IMF praises Sweden for handling of crisis

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised both Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, and the Swedish government for their handling of the economic crisis.

IMF praises Sweden for handling of crisis

However, the IMF has cautioned that its outlook for Swedish growth is uncertain, saying that the Riksbank should enact a “gradual and cautious” tightening cycle with regards to raising the repo rate.

The uncertainty regarding Swedish growth has increased in step with the debt crisis in Europe that gained momentum in the spring, according to the IMF.

Peter Doyle, who led the annual review of Sweden’s economy, sprinkled praise on the Riksbank and the government for their handling of the crisis.

He could not think of anything that could have been done better.

“I believe that the answer is no, despite there having been a huge economic shock,” Doyle said in a statement. “The government has allowed the budget surplus to turn into a deficit in order to keep demand up and the Riksbank has kept interest rates down.”

The IMF also welcomed the Financial Supervisory Authority’s (Finansinspektionen) proposal to place a cap on mortgages at 85 percent of the market value of the dwelling to be purchased. According to the IMF, this ceiling can act as insurance against undesirable consequences from excessive lending to home buyers.

The IMF noted that Sweden’s GDP fell by 5 percent last year while unemployment rose to over 9 percent and the financial strength of the export industry deteriorated.

At the same time, Doyle thinks that the current turmoil in Europe is hard to judge. He feels that the Riksbank should take into account these concerns at the next interest rate meeting.

“It’s hard for anyone to assess what the worries involve, but it is definitely something one should consider,” he said. “However, it is possible that the situation will be clearer in July. We think the Riksbank’s interest rate path is otherwise a reasonable path on the basis of developments in Sweden.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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