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ECONOMY

New data stokes fears of uncertain economic recovery

Fears that uncertain recovery in Europe's biggest economy could stall were stoked Friday when data showed that German industrial production suffered a sharp setback in December.

New data stokes fears of uncertain economic recovery
Photo: DPA

Output fell 2.6 percent from the previous month according to seasonally adjusted figures provided by the economy ministry, following a gain of 0.7 percent in November and a drop of 1.7 percent in October.

On an annual basis, the fall in December was 7.1 percent, and along with fears over eurozone debt levels, the news helped pushed the euro to a nine-month low of $1.3648 on foreign exchange markets.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a rise of 0.5 percent but instead, Germany suffered its steepest fall since February 2009 when the country was mired deep in its worst recession since World War II.

Heavy slumps were seen in the manufacturing and construction sectors, the ministry said in a statement, with only consumer goods production posting an increase.

In general, “industrial production lost momentum” at end of 2009, it said, while forecasting a “downward trend” for the sector in light of the latest industrial orders numbers.

On Thursday, the ministry reported that orders lost 2.3 percent in December as global uncertainty weighed on foreign demand for German goods.

For the entire 16-nation eurozone, the European Central Bank warned Thursday that “the recovery process is likely to be uneven and the outlook remains subject to uncertainty.”

Morgan Stanley economist Elga Bartsch said Friday: “We would expect consensus (eurozone) growth forecasts to come down on the back of this report” from Berlin.

Germany accounts for one-third of eurozone output and saw its economy contract by five percent in 2009. With consumption and exports slowly recovering, the government has forecast growth of 1.4 percent this year.

Germany lost its crown as the leading global exporter to China in 2009 however, and the data released Friday implied feeble German industrial output in the last three months of the year.

But “looking ahead, the weak fourth quarter should be a temporary halt rather than the end of the rebound,” ING senior economist Carsten Brzeski said.

“It was just one of these painful reminders that recoveries never follow a straight line.”

Encouragement might also come from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which said Friday its composite leading indicators in December gave “stronger signals of an expansion in economic activity” worldwide.

Winter weather could still hamper a German recovery, Brzeski acknowledged, but “while the snow will eventually melt away, the industry-led recovery should stay.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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