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Sharp interest rate rises in late 2010: report

Homeowners will have less spending power by the end of the year according to a new report from state-owned mortgage lender SBAB, which predicts the Riksbank will begin a sharp interest rate increase in the autumn.

Published: 22 January 2010 08:53 CET

The report states that Sweden’s central bank will to start to raise the benchmark repo rate from its current record low 0.25 percent after the summer.

Tomas Pousette, SBAB’s chief economist, adds that the repo increase will continue sharply into 2011 with mortgage interest rates set to follow.

“The bottom for longer-term fixed mortgages has been reached and they will start to rise during the first six months of 2010,” he said.

“By the end of 2011 we expect that three-monthly interest rates will have risen to around 3.5 percent,” he says.

By December 2010, SBAB estimates that interest on a quarterly-fixed mortgage will be around 2 percent, rising to 3.35 percent in 12 months time.

For mortgages fixed over a 24-month period the estimated 3.65 percent interest will rise to 4.95 percent and five-yearly fixed mortgages will go from 4.90 percent to 5.50 percent.

According to Pousette, the anticipated repo rate rises can be attributed to the Riksbank’s optimistic outlook for an economic upswing in the next year.

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Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview.

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken.

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.”

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.”

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said.

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

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