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FINANCIAL CRISIS

Negative interest rate to boost growth: Riksbank

Sweden's central bank has taken the unusual step of keeping its fixed interest rates pegged below zero in a bid to stimulate the economy.

The Riksbank also kept is main benchmark rate on hold at 0.25 percent on Thursday as it raised its economic growth forecasts for this year and next, chiming with similar

moves in neighbouring Norway and by the European Central Bank.

“The signs of a turnaround in the economy have become increasingly clear but the recovery is from a low level,” it said in a statement.

In July, the Riksbank fixed interest rates at minus 0.25 percent on certain deposits kept by the commercial banks at the central bank.

With the negative rate, banks are effectively fined if they hoard unused funds in the central bank’s coffers — a way of punishing them for a conservative lending policy at a time when the authorities want to ensure the economy gets easy credit.

Banks are usually paid interest on these deposits.

“It’s better for a bank to be active… (rather) than just sit on the money,” Riksbank governor Stefan Ingves told AFP.

Invges at the same time noted that the move was largely symbolic, being only a small element in the central bank’s armoury while its other interest rates were above zero.

“It is more symbolic because it’s a system which de facto isn’t really used,” he said. “It shows that this is technically possible to do but it’s in no way a major component in the way we execute monetary policy today.”

Lars Svensson, deputy central bank governor and an expert on low interest rates, said in the minutes on the July decision that hoarding cash was costly and that there was “nothing strange about negative interest rates.”

Central banks around the world have slashed interest rates since the onset in late 2007 of the worst global slump since the 1930s sparked by an unravelling of speculative investments linked to property, especially in the United States.

With rates in many countries at or near zero, governments have also pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into their economies, with some officials openly contemplating the possibility of using negative interest rates to drive money held in the banks back out into the system.

Bank of England governor Mervyn King recently refused to rule out following the Swedish example.

“It’s an idea we will certainly be looking at, whether the effectiveness of our asset purchases could be increased by reducing the rate at which we remunerate reserves,” King said on August 12th.

“The (Swedish) central bank has done all it could to persuade banks to lend money to companies rather than to deposit it at the central bank,” said Henrik Mitelman, chief strategist at Stockholm-based bank SEB.

“From that viewpoint, it was a bold, brave decision, a bit of an experiment,” he said.

As it held rates unchanged, the Riksbank said it now expected the economy to shrink 4.9 percent this year before recovering to growth of 1.9 percent in 2010.

In July, it forecast that the economy would shrink 5.4 percent in 2009 and then grow 1.4 percent next year.

The Riksbank warned that although the economy was showing signs of recovery, “the labour market will lag behind and employment will not begin to rise until 2011.”

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ECONOMY

Riksbank deputy ‘open to reconsidering raising rates in April’

Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden's Riksbank, has questioned whether the central bank needs to bring in further rate rises in April, following bank runs on two niche banks in the US and a crisis of confidence at Credit Suisse.

Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview. 

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken. 

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.” 

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.” 

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said. 

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

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