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ECONOMY

Germany unveils €17.5-billion plan to fight credit crunch

Germany on Tuesday unveiled a €17.5-billion ($25-billion) plan to fight lingering credit crunch problems in Europe's largest economy by lending directly to banks and bolstering insurers.

Germany unveils €17.5-billion plan to fight credit crunch
Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg gets things rolling again. Photo:DPA

The package is part of a larger €115-billion fund designed to unlock credit in the economy in a bid to get business rolling again. But it has enjoyed only limited success so far.

Presenting the latest plan, Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said it was aimed at Germany’s famous Mittelstand – the small and medium-sized firms that make up the backbone of the economy.

“We want to ensure that small and medium-sized companies in particular can gain access to enough credit, even in economically difficult times, to carry out important projects,” he said in a statement.

The plan, which does not involve new money injected by the state, consists of two parts.

A pot of €10 billion has been laid aside to be lent to the state-backed development bank KfW, so it can in turn lend to businesses. A further €7.5 billion will be made available as export guarantees to encourage firms to sell abroad and bolster companies that insure exporters against defaults, the ministry said.

Additional details still need to be worked out, however, and the scheme will not be definitively put in place until October or November this year, the ministry said.

Business groups have warned that a continued credit crunch in Germany could throttle a promising uptick in activity that saw the economy recover in the second quarter of the year from its worst recession in over 60 years.

“Politicians must arm themselves for the situation to worsen,” the director-general of German employers’ group, Werner Schappauf, the BDI, told Handelsblatt.

“The first tender green shoots of recovery could quickly dry up if companies find themselves without liquidity,” he said.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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