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ECONOMY

Retail sales up in April

German retail sales rose by an unexpected 0.5 percent in April from March, official statistics showed Friday, suggesting that consumption could help ease the country's historic recession.

Retail sales up in April
Photo: DPA

Analysts had expected retail sales, adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects, to slip by 0.1 percent on the month, in part because a goverment car scrapping bonus is believed to have undercut sales of other big-ticket items.

If consumption continues to improve in coming months, it could attenuate to some extent a contraction in Europe’s biggest economy, which is in the midst of its worst recession since World War II.

“Consumer sentiment has edged slightly higher in the second quarter when compared to the first quarter, suggesting that private consumption will be up again … though certainly not enough to offset the weakness from exports and investment,” said Goldman Sachs economist Dirk Schumacher.

On an annual basis however, retail sales fell by 0.8 percent, according to data compiled by the national statistics office from seven German states that account for roughly 76 percent of all sales.

The figures do not include sales of automobiles and petrol.

“Sales have been actually quite robust given that the car wreckage scheme has probably ‘crowded out’ spending power,” Schumacher said.

The latest index of German consumer confidence showed little change meanwhile, the GfK institute said Tuesday, and has been essentially stable since March.

Other analysts warned that German consumption remained on a downward trend and said rising unemployment would limit any contribution to overall economic growth.

The rise in April retail sales “cannot be expected to mark the start of a sustained recovery,” UniCredit economist Alexander Koch said.

Pessimistic forecasts by retailers and “the chronically subdued consumer climate indicate at best sluggish retail sales ex cars in the months to come.”

Simon Junker at Commerzbank said: “German retail is still on a downward trend and set to show further setbacks in the coming months.”

That was in part because “the situation in the labour market will deteriorate well into next year and this will put pressure on wages.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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