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Economic recovery could bring quick rate hikes: Riksbank

Sweden’s central bank could raise interest rates quickly to combat inflation associated with an economic recovery in Sweden, Riksbank chief Stefan Ingves warned on Wednesday.

Economic recovery could bring quick rate hikes: Riksbank

“If the global economy recovers more quickly than we are predicting, this will also contribute to making monetary policy less expansionary,” Ingves said in a speech given at the Avanza Bank.

But before the Riksbank starts raising rates again, which won’t happen until 2010 according to the bank’s latest forecast, Ingves said he is open for even further cuts in the repo rate, Sweden’s benchmark interest rate.

“What the Riksbank must consider further ahead is whether economic developments require further interest rate cuts and whether the current monetary policy then needs to be supported by more unconventional methods. We must be prepared to be able to implement an alternative monetary policy if developments should so require,” said Ingves.

One option to an additional lowering of the repo rate, which currently stands at 0.5 percent, is to send signals that today’s lower interest rates will remain in place for an extended period of time.

“We can, for instance, announce that we are going to hold a low repo rate for a longer period than we assumed at the monetary policy meeting in April and show how the inflation path will then approach 2 per cent more quickly than otherwise. This would raise inflation expectations,” he explained.

The Riksbank governor added that he has seen certain signs of positive economic developments in recent months, mostly from the United States.

“It is as yet too early to talk of a stabilization in the US economy, particularly given that the labour market is continuing to weaken rapidly. However, there are signs that the rate of the downturn may be slackening,” said Ingves.

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ECONOMY

Riksbank deputy ‘open to reconsidering raising rates in April’

Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden's Riksbank, has questioned whether the central bank needs to bring in further rate rises in April, following bank runs on two niche banks in the US and a crisis of confidence at Credit Suisse.

Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview. 

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken. 

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.” 

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.” 

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said. 

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

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