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ECONOMY

March car sales up by 40 percent after scrapping premium ‘frenzy’

German auto sales shot up 40 percent in March compared with the same month in 2008 in what analysts on Thursday called a "shopping frenzy" that will lighten the recession in Europe's top economy.

March car sales up by 40 percent after scrapping premium 'frenzy'
Photo: DPA

The VDA automobile federation said sales in March rose to 401,000 vehicles, explaining the rise was due to a government bonus for scrapping old cars for newer, greener models as well as a higher number of business days this year.

The rise was the most impressive since 1992 during an economic boom that followed German reunification, VDA said, also warning that sales would slow down as the initial rush of scrapping bonus applications thins out.

The environmental bonus, as it is also known, will be phased out at the end of the year.

German economic analysts from Italian banking group Unicredit said in a research note that “something has started which had not occurred for a long time in Germany: a shopping frenzy.”

“Applications for the car-scrapping premium literally skyrocketed, exceeding one million,” they added. But the Unicredit analysts also warned this did not mean an end to recession and said there would be more gloomy data to come.

Alexander Koch from Unicredit said the increase in car sales “should bring some desperately needed support for the economy in the first quarter,” adding more than one percent to quarterly gross domestic product (GDP).

But the car scrapping bonus will only be successful “in the short run,” he said, adding that there could be setbacks later in the year. “The party… will inevitably be followed by a hangover,” he warned.

The programme began in February to help the auto industry cope with recession, and offers motorists a €2,500 ($3,300) bonus to trade in their old car for a new, more environmentally friendly model.

Since Monday, interest has soared as a new application procedure became available online, with total requests running up to 941,289, the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bafa) said on Wednesday.

Launched as part of the country’s second economic stimulus package, the car scrapping bonus for any car at least nine years old was initially to be limited to 600,000 applicants, about one-fifth of Germany’s normal annual car sales.

It has had an immediate impact on sales, which jumped 21.5 percent in February, bucking a downturn which has seen huge reductions elsewhere in Europe and prompting other countries to consider similar schemes.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her coalition partner Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier have agreed to extend the programme until the end of the year but details of the extension have not been finalised.

Germany has been badly hit by the global slump and the economy is expected to contract by much more than the current forecast of 2.25 percent this year.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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