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ECONOMY

BMW blames crisis for failure to come up with 2009 forecast

German luxury car maker BMW said Wednesday the current economic crisis prevented it from giving a detailed 2009 outlook but insisted that its medium-term targets were achievable.

BMW blames crisis for failure to come up with 2009 forecast
Photo: DPA

“2009 will be a year of transition, for which no reliable forecast is possible at present,” BMW boss Norbert Reithofer told the group’s annual press conference in southern Munich.

BMW expected sales for the automobile sector as a whole to fall between 10-20 percent this year but forecast that markets would pick up again in 2010.

In the meantime, “we will tighten our belts,” said Reithofer, a decision that has already led to the elimination of 7,500 jobs at the company and meant a substantial 2008 pay cut for himself and others.

BMW’s annual net profit lost 89.5 percent to reach €330 million ($430 million), while sales slipped by four percent to 1.4 million vehicles.

Reithofer took a pay cut of more than one-third as a result.

“The sharp drop in 2008 earnings has financial consequences: a member of the BMW board must renounce around 40 percent of his annual salary,” he told media.

According to the group’s annual report, Reithofer’s pay fell by 39.5 percent to €2.3 million.

Executive pay is a controversial issue in Germany, and draft legislation that would tighten the framework on salaries was approved by the government last week.

Workers would also see their salaries cut however, with those covered by a collective wage agreement reduced by 10 percent.

Meanwhile, German rival Daimler has also declined to give a detailed outlook for 2009, saying only that sales would fall from the level posted last year.

Profits at both automakers plummeted in 2008, especially in the last quarter after US investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, plunging financial markets into fresh turmoil.

BMW nonetheless reiterated 2012 profit targets that were first outlined in late 2007 as part of a group strategy dubbed “Number One.”

The plan’s main goal is a return on sales of between eight to 10 percent, but the BMW boss said Wednesday he now expected the unit sales target of 1.8 million vehicles set “before the crisis” to be at least 100,000 cars fewer.

He stressed that it was very hard at present to give firm forecasts.

In afternoon Frankfurt trading, BMW shares fell by 2.43 percent to €22.29 while the DAX index of German blue-chips was essentially unchanged overall.

To meet its return on sales goal, BMW planned to exceed an initial reduction of €4 billion in material costs, part of a wide-ranging cost-cutting target of €6 billion.

Cutbacks on personnel costs are expected to generate up to €500 million in savings each year from 2009.

Reithofer said he wanted to “preserve the BMW group’s independence,” nipping rumours of a tie-up with either Daimler or the French group PSA Peugeot Citroen in the bud.

BMW did not seek any cross shareholdings, finance director Friedrich Eichiner added.

But BMW and Daimler cooperate already in the purchase of materials and parts, and “we will extend this cooperation and progressively buy more and more parts and components together,” Reithofer said.

BMW also works with PSA to make motors for Mini models.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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