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ECONOMY

German economy seen grinding to halt in 2009

A blue-ribbon panel of experts said on Wednesday German economic growth would grind to a halt in 2009 and blasted Berlin's plans to shore up Europe's biggest economy as a mere fig leaf.

German economy seen grinding to halt in 2009
The economists presenting their report. Photo: DPA

The group of five economic advisors handed Chancellor Angela Merkel their annual report in which they predicted no economic growth next year and said the government’s announced measures would be of little help.

Gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 0.0 percent next year, after an expected gain of 1.7 percent this year, said the economists known as the Five Wise Men until a woman, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, joined in 2004.

Berlin recently cut its forecast for economic growth to a mere 0.2 percent in 2009 as the financial crisis continues to send shock waves around the world. The panel said that “the conditions are in place to talk about recession,” given the brutal nature of the slowdown.

The government will publish figures for third-quarter growth Thursday and if it contracted for the second three-month-period running, as widely expected, the world’s top exporter will already be officially in recession.

The economists dismissed a recent multi-billion-euro bundle of tax breaks and state investment as a “hotch-potch of isolated projects designed to give the impression that the government is doing something.” It said the package was far too small to have a real impact, and unfairly targeted at specific industries such as automaking thanks to heavy lobbying.

Merkel acknowledged her left-right government was grappling with a crisis that was difficult to manage or fully understand and said Berlin was doing its best to help the country weather the storm.

“We are in a situation now in which it is extremely difficult for all of us to know exactly what the future will bring,” she said as she accepted the report.

The experts noted that Germany’s “real economy” had as yet remained relatively unscathed but it forecast that unemployment would rise 1.1 percentage points next year.

Last week Merkel’s cabinet approved a raft of measures aimed at stimulating the economy with an extra €50 billion ($63 billion) in investment in 2009 and 2010, in what she called a “bridge” for the economy until activity picks up.

The stimulus measures were approved less than three weeks after Merkel’s government rushed through parliament a €480-billion rescue package to save the country’s banks from collapse.

Merkel has stressed the stimulus measures are “targeted,” after Berlin was highly critical of proposals by French President Nicolas Sarkozy – whose country holds the current EU presidency – for Europe-wide state intervention on a massive scale. But economists are sceptical that the measures will do the trick.

The daily Financial Times Deutschland said in an editorial Wednesday based on leaked copies of the report that it hoped Merkel and her cabinet would heed the panel’s advice.

“The experts’ report could be the last chance to move the coalition towards a re-think,” it said. “If the government doesn’t even listen to a committee of experts it appointed itself then that would really give cause for despair.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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