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ECONOMY

Germany economy in ‘disastrous’ shape

Germany is being pummelled by the global slowdown and "disastrous" data show its economy is already in recession, economists said on Thursday.

Things look grim for the world’s top exporter, following the release of data showing orders for goods made in Europe’s biggest economy plunged eight percent in September from August. The Economy Ministry said it was the steepest fall since East and West Germany reunited to become one country in 1990.

The downturn, revealed a day after Chancellor Angela Merkel unveiled a multi-billion-euro stimulus programme to try and avoid the worst effects of a global slowdown, was much worse than expected.

The data were released as the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank all slashed their main interest rates in a dramatic escalation of global efforts to stave off recession.

Orders from outside Germany, which accounts for a third of eurozone activity, slumped 11.4 percent while domestic orders fell 4.3 percent, with all sectors registering falls.

On a less volatile two-month comparison the decline was less dramatic, with orders in August and September off 1.4 percent compared to June and July.

“All in all, the fall in orders experienced since December 2007 is accelerating. As a result, prospects for industrial production remain gloomy for the coming months,” the Economy Ministry said.

“Now that large parts of the industrialised world have already slipped into recession and others are likely to follow, new orders for German products are falling accordingly,” UBS economist Martin Lueck said, calling the data “disastrous.”

Exports, which account for up half of Germany’s economic output, will fall 2.5 percent in 2009, which would be the worst performance since the recession of 1992-93, Lueck predicted.

The numbers are “another clear indication that the German economy is in a recession,” Commerzbank economist Simon Junker said.

The German economy shrank in the second quarter and GDP figures next Thursday are expected to confirm that output also fell in the July to September period, meaning the country is officially in recession.

But what Thursday’s numbers prove is that conditions are going to get a lot worse, and that Germany has been hit hard since the mid-September bankruptcy of US banking giant Lehman Brothers pushed the global financial system close to collapse, economists said.

German industry “is currently contracting at an unprecedented pace,” UBS’s Lueck said.

This is borne out by a string of recent highly downbeat assessments of conditions in the real economy from German companies, not just car giants like BMW and Daimler but also in other sectors. Sportswear firm Adidas on Thursday said that uncertainty was so high it could not give a forecast for 2009.

Berlin has slashed its 2009 growth forecast to just 0.2 percent, the slowest rate of growth since Germany last suffered a recession in 2003. Third-quarter growth figures are due to be published next Thursday.

Last Monday, Germany’s widely-watched Ifo sentiment indicator showed business confidence dropping in October to its lowest point in more than five years.

On Wednesday Merkel’s cabinet approved a raft of measures aimed at stimulating an extra €50 billion ($65 billion) in investment in 2009 and 2010 in what she called a “bridge” for the economy until activity picks up.

The €23 billion in stimulus measures were approved less than three weeks after Merkel’s government rushed through parliament a €480-billion ($620-billion) rescue package to save the country’s banks from collapse.

Merkel has stressed the stimulus measures are “targeted,” after Berlin was highly critical of proposals by French President Nicolas Sarkozy – whose country holds the current EU presidency – for Europe-wide state intervention on a massive scale.

But economists are sceptical that the stimulus measures are enough.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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