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FINANCE

BayernLB first in line for German state aid

German regional bank BayernLB on Tuesday evening became the first bank to apply for state aid under a rescue package thrown together to underpin the country's financial sector.

BayernLB first in line for German state aid
Photo: DPA

Bayerische Landesbank said it would apply for €5.4 billion ($7.08 billion) in aid, taking advantage of a government-backed rescue plan worth €480 billion in direct aid and loan guarantees.

The southern regional bank, which is jointly owned by the state of Bavaria and regional savings banks, had invested heavily in asset-backed securities (ABS) which lost much of their value when the US market for high-risk, or subprime mortgages collapsed more than a year ago.

As it struggled to get back on its feet, BayernLB’s situation was slammed again when interbank loans dried up in the aftermath of a bankruptcy by the US investment bank Lehman Brothers in mid September.

On Monday, the cabinet finalised on Monday the conditions under which banks can make use of a €480-billion rescue package rushed through parliament last week.

By applying for the state aid, BayernLB will agree for example that its executives may earn no more than €500,000. Any dividend payments must go to the state and the government can also force the bank to reduce or give up entirely particularly risky lending practices, as well as to continue making loans to small and medium sized firms.

The programme passed by lawmakers on Friday includes €400 billion in loan guarantees in order to get banks lending to each other and up to €80 billion to shore up banks’ balance sheets battered by the financial crisis.

The rescue package, the biggest in postwar Germany, was similar to other measures announced by Germany’s partners in the 15-country eurozone along the lines of a British programme after crisis talks in Paris on October 12.

BayernLB, the second biggest German regional bank, posted a pre-tax loss of €770 million in the first quarter of 2008 that forced shareholders to come up with €4.8 billion in loan guarantees.

Landesbanken are a result of Germany’s federal political structure. They are publicly owned by local savings banks associations and regional authorities. As such they used to benefit from state guarantees that allowed them to extend credit at lower rates.

But “their business model does not work any more,” Merck Finck analyst Konrad Becker said. “The era when each state had its own bank is over.”

When the European Commission curbed the privilege in 2005, the banks were forced to look elsewhere for business and fell back on risky investments as a way to keep making money.

One possible solution for BayernLB is to merge with a powerful sister bank, Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg or LBBW, which would create a southern German banking powerhouse.

LBBW, the biggest regional bank, said last week that its level of shareholder funds was “very good” and that it did not need a cash injection from Berlin.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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