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ECONOMY

German consumer confidence hits five-year low

German consumer confidence has hit its lowest level since June 2003, a leading survey showed on Monday, as benefits of increased employment and wages were "demolished" by inflation.

The confidence index compiled by the GfK institute fell to 2.1 points from 3.6 points in its previous survey, with an indicator of economic and income expectations dropping especially sharply.

“The positive momentum generated by the job market and the beneficial wage and salary increases compared with last year are consequently being demolished by inflation,” GfK said.

In June, consumer prices in the biggest European economy rose by 3.3 percent in June on a 12-month basis, the biggest increase since December 1993. “Record price increases, triggered primarily by rocketing energy prices, are leaving consumers increasingly fearful of their purchasing power,” GfK said.

Income expectations fell to their lowest level since November 2005, owing to “growing fears of a recession and the fact that the crisis in the financial markets seems far from over,” it added.

With the euro’s rise in value hampering Germany’s export-led economy, the government had hoped that thrifty German consumers would begin to hit the stores owing to lower unemployment and substantial pay raises. But GfK said that “consumers will no doubt be putting the brakes on their purchasing in the belief that in the future, a large proportion of their household budget will be going towards energy costs.”

UniCredit Markets economist Alexander Koch said Germany had seen “several consumer recessions” since the high-tech bubble burst, and recalled the results of a recent German business climate survey by the Ifo research institute that showed sentiment plunging to a 34-month low point in July.

“Continuing high pressure on the purchasing power as well as the darkening economic outlook, underscored by last week’s plunge in the Ifo, clearly argue against private consumption becoming the required pillor in the second half of the year, with the next consumer recession already lurking around the corner!”

GfK’s survey of some 2,000 consumers found that “the number of Germans worried about price rises has more than doubled within the space of one year.” An indicator that measures consumers’ propensity to buy lost a relatively modest 2.5 points from the previous survey, but was down 35 points on a 12-month basis at minus 26.2 points.

UBS analyst Martin Lueck commented that “a substantial recovery in consumer spending has now become very unlikely.”

“Both sentiment indicators and hard industrial data have recently shown that a massive slowdown is underway,” prompting the Swiss bank to forecast that Germany’s economy would grow by around 2.0 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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