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ECONOMY

German consumer confidence tanks

German consumer confidence has fallen to a 30-month low as climbing energy prices reduce household purchasing power, a study by the GfK research institute showed on Tuesday.

German consumer confidence tanks
Photo: DPA

The latest barometer of consumer sentiment in Europe’s biggest economy slipped to 3.9 points from a revised figure of 4.7 points in its previous reading.

A year ago, the confidence index stood at 7.4 points, and the latest reading marked the lowest level since December 2005, when it dropped to 3.5 points.

“German consumers have now really thrown in the towel,” commented UniCredit Markets analyst Andreas Rees.

Gfk said in a statement that because German inflation was expected to remain stuck around 3.0 percent in coming months, its outlook for consumption growth this year had been revised down to 0.5 percent from a previous 1.0 percent.

Consumers said they were now less inclined to make major purchases, and less optimistic regarding their personal income and the economy in general.

The study questioned around 2,000 German residents and found that “repeated

announcements of new record petrol and diesel prices have compounded consumer fears of a loss of purchasing power.”

But for Rees, “the downturn in consumer sentiment is probably more than the simple loss in purchasing power.

“We think that part of the equation is also the loss of confidence in the future growth outlook,” he said.

Positive points like falling employment and even substantial wage increases have had little impact, GfK found, because the raises were in large part offset by inflation, which was 3.0 percent in Germany in May and a record 3.7 percent for the eurozone as a whole.

On Monday, the Ifo economic institute said German business sentiment had fallen to an 18-month low point in June, owing to high oil prices, weaker economic growth in key markets, tighter credit conditions and the euro’s rise against other major currencies.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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