In an article assessing Germany’s latest migration figures this week, Die Zeit raised a pertinent question: “What is actually out of control here,” asked journalist Mark Schieritz. “The migration, or the debate?”

While the number of asylum applications has been sinking dramatically this year – along with the number of so-called economic migrants – the discussion around migration has been building to a fever pitch.

In response to huge gains by the far-right AfD in both EU and eastern state elections, the government immediately sprung into action, extending controversial checks along all nine of Germany’s foreign borders.

READ ALSO: How Germany’s increased border checks will affect travel from neighbouring countries

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) declared his intention to carry out “deportations on a grand scale” as mainstream parties met for a migration summit that quickly collapsed in disagreement.

At the same time, anti-migrant rhetoric has been ramping up, causing Deutschlandfunk to draw parallels with the early 1990s, when Germany saw a spate attacks against both refugees and foreigners who had been settled in the country for decades. 

All of this feels very far removed from the Germany that has been desperate to court skilled foreigner workers over the past year, and that has fought to overturn a decades-long ban on dual nationality – which finally happened in June.

But it has caused some to wonder if the tide could be shifting, and if hard-won rights like dual nationality could be set to go out of the window. Here’s where things stand at present.

Threats from the CDU 

The biggest threat to the dual nationality law arguably comes from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) parties, who are long-standing opponents of the bill.

Shortly after the new citizenship law entered into force back in June, immigration spokesperson Alexander Throm told DPA that the parties intended to scrap it. 

“The CDU and CSU will reverse this unsuccessful reform,” he said. “Dual citizenship must remain the exception and be limited to countries that share our values.”

But is this all hot air from a party that has vehemently campaigned against dual nationality for years on end? In the opinion of most political experts, the answer is yes. 

“The CDU’s announcement that they would abolish the authorisation of dual citizenship is a desperate attempt to react to the growth of the AfD,” Nils Diederich, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University, told The Local.

However, the party is unlikely to have the numbers in parliament to do so – even if they win the next election.

That’s because Germany’s system tends to rely on coalition governments, and every single one of the CDU and CSU’s viable coalition partners – the Greens, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Free Democrats (FDP) – supports dual nationality. 

This was backed up by Greens immigration expert Filiz Polat, who told The Local: “The CDU/CSU is completely isolated with its announcement that it will revoke the citizenship law in the event of a change of government.”

READ ALSO: Can Germany’s CDU scrap the dual nationality law?

Furthermore, the CDU and CSU are highly unlikely to ever have the numbers in the Bundesrat to change the law. The upper house of parliament is comprised of state coalition governments that all need to agree in order to vote in favour of legislation. 

With the exception of Bavaria, where the CSU governs alongside the Free Voters, or Freier Wähler, party, every single state coalition the CDU is part of involves some combination of of the Greens, SPD and FDP. As the parties who worked on and ultimately passed this law, they are unlikely to agree to overturn it. 

What about the far-right AfD?

Many foreigners in Germany are understandably worried about the rise of the extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, who seem to be going from strength to strength lately.

In Bundestag debates on the new citizenship law, the AfD spoke out vehemently against the changes – a stance that is reiterated in the party’s Grundsatzprogramm, or key policy programme. 

“The AfD rejects the ‘double passport’, i.e. the acquisition of German citizenship with the simultaneous continuation or acquisition of another citizenship,” the party writes. “Although this does not rule out well-founded special cases.”

In addition, they say, the requirements for naturalisation must be significantly increased.

In spite of their recent successes in eastern states, however, the far-right party is still a long way away from seizing power in Germany on a national level (or even at the state level). 

That’s primarily because all the major parties – including the CDU – have what’s known as a Brandmauer, or firewall, in place, that prevents them from formally cooperating with the AfD. 

READ ALSO: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

So, even if the CDU and CSU parties technically have the numbers to enter a coalition with the AfD after next year’s federal elections, the party’s constitution explicitly forbids them from doing so.

Any informal agreement – such as a pact to overturn the dual nationality law, for example – would also be politically toxic, and would almost inevitably split the party. 

Where does the government stand?

Currently, the so-called traffic light coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP – named after the parties’ three colours – is engaged in something of a balancing act.

While the rhetoric around migration has taken on a much more combative tone, the coalition has set a clear dividing line between legal skilled migration and uncontrolled, irregular migration.

In a fiery speech in the Bundestag on September 11th, Scholz emphasised Germany’s desperate need for migration to combat current labour shortages. 

“There is no country in the world with a shrinking labour force that has economic growth,” he said. “That is the truth that we are confronted with.”

The chancellor also noted that Germany’s constitution mandates the protection of people who face danger and persecution. In other words: asylum seekers. 

“Openness to the world is therefore necessary,” he explained. “But cosmopolitanism does not mean that anyone who wants to can come. We must be able to choose who comes to Germany.”

According to political scientist Diederich, this cuts to the heart of the current issue.

“The authorisation of multiple citizenship has little to do with unregulated immigration,” he told The Local. “Naturalisation is granted to people who have been living legally in Germany for several years and who have successfully integrated into German society.”

On the other hand, Diederich said, the fear of “foreign infiltration” through unchecked, irregular and unwanted migration is being fuelled for political purposes. 

“It’s not only the AfD doing this,” he added. 

READ ALSO: Debt, migration and the far-right – The big challenges facing Germany this autumn

At present, the government seems laser-focused on dividing their pro-migration policies – like the recent skilled worker law and citizenship reform – from the need to quell irregular migration. 

For foreigners here legally, this means that routes to German citizenship – and indeed, dual nationality – are set to remain in place for the forseeable future.