Energy prices in Norway rocketed in the autumn of 2021, so much so that the government was forced to introduce a subsidy scheme for electricity bills.

Since then, a number of factors have kept bills high, such as fluctuating gas prices, low reservoir filling levels, and high gas prices on the continent bleeding into the Norwegian market.

More recently, several reports have suggested that energy prices in Norway are finally on the way down to more manageable levels. Annual inflation figures released by Statistics Norway earlier this month showed that energy prices fell by more than 20 percent between June 2023 and 2024.

Around 90 percent of Norway’s energy is hydropower, and a large inflow to reservoirs increased power production in the second quarter.

Currently, reservoirs in southern Norway are around five percentage points higher than usual for the time of year. However, northern and central Norway, which has had much drier and sunnier weather than the south this summer, has seen the filling level of reservoirs drop 11 percentage points, Olav Botnen, an analyst at Volt Power Analytics, told Norwegian newswire NTB.

Despite this, energy prices will still be lower in Norway’s north and central regions than in the south this winter. Even with the lower reservoir filling levels, prices in the north are expected to be lower than last year.

“Northern and central Norway are likely to get below 30 øre per kilowatt hour (kWh) for the rest of the summer, and around 45 øre per kWh for the coming winter. It will be a little cheaper than last winter, as expectations are now,” Botnen told NTB.

The reason for the lower prices in northern and central Norway this winter, despite lower reservoir levels, is that the region can also rely on wind power to supplement its electricity supplies.

The region also has a much higher power surplus than the south too, meaning it would take a lot for reservoir levels to affect bills.

While northern Norway can look forward to slightly lower bills, southern Norway won’t see too much of a difference compared to last winter.

“In southern Norway, the market expects around 45 øre kWh for the rest of the summer, August to September. For winter, expectations are around 80 øre per kWh. It is quite similar to what was delivered last winter,” Botnen said.

Meanwhile, southwestern Norway will have slightly higher prices for the rest of summer but similar prices to the rest of southern Norway in the winter.

“They are likely to get a price of 55 and 60 øre per kWh for the summer and the same price as the rest of southern Norway for the coming winter,” Bonten said.

One thing which could positively affect prices, according to the energy analyst Gro Klæboe from Volue Insight, is more stable gas prices.

The analyst said that stocks were looking good for winter, which would lower prices on the continent and have a positive knock-on effect for Norway.