She was the obvious choice all along. Why had no one thought of it before? The new Prime Minister of France should be Lucie Castets.

Lucie who?

Lucie Castets is the financial director of the city of Paris. She is 37 years old. She believes in public spending. Under her watch, the city’s accumulated debt will increase to almost €10 billion by 2026, its highest ever figure.

OK. She is evidently the right person to manage the money of a state which is €3 trillion in debt and has to make tough choices to avoid a grisly, financial crisis. What other qualifications does she have?

She is often seen at left-wing demonstrations.

Is that it?

No. She is the only name which the four parties of the leftwing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire could agree on as their prime-minister-designate after 16 days of arguments and insults. Without a name – any name – the alliance might have imploded.

Why Lucie?

Because no one had ever heard of her before. And it was urgent for the Left to present a common candidate before President Emmanuel Macron addressed the nation on Monday night.

Why?

So that Macron could reject her name out of hand. The Left could then accuse him of being the “enemy of democracy” and “divorced from reality” because he would not see that Lucie (checks notes) Castets was the people’s choice for Prime Minister.

The people’s choice?

Yes. The Left won 192 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly in the snap elections of June 30th/July 7th. They have slightly more seats than any other bloc in a parliament which is split three and a half ways.

They say that they have a democratic right to govern without bothering with messy things like coalitions and compromises. Keeping the Nouveau Front Populaire together is hard enough.

And what did Macron say?

He said no one had won the election, not even him. It was therefore the time for messy things like coalitions and compromises.

That would, however, take some time. Nothing could begin while the Paris Olympics were in progress. You could not expect the French people, or French politicians, to pay any attention to politics while they were distracted by synchronised swimming and Greco-Roman wrestling.

So we will have a new government by mid-August?

Absolutely not. The negotiations will probably go on deep into September in the hope of having a coalition government by the time the new assembly meets for its first full session on October 1st.

That would mean six or seven weeks, at least, without a proper government in place, only a “current affairs” caretaker government with few powers. Is that possible? Is it constitutional? Has it ever happened before?

In Belgium, frequently. The longest previous “current affairs” government in modern French political history lasted for nine days in 1962 when Georges Pompidou was Prime Minister and Charles de Gaulle was president.

So Macron is trying it on?

Yes.

What are the chances of a coalition being agreed by October 1st?

Very uncertain. And any cobbled-together government might be short-lived. Agreement on a 2025, deficit-cutting budget is essential to prevent a financial crisis not quite of Greek proportions but something quite close. Pushing a budget through a score of different stages will be a nightmare unless the new government has a majority of the 577 deputies (289 seats).

Macron seemed in his interview on Monday night to lean towards the possibility of a coalition between his Centre and the ex-Gaullist centre-right. Is that feasible or sensible?

The Macron centre and the ex-Gaullists (who have changed their name yet again) would have 220 seats combined. That is nowhere near enough for a lasting government.

What is Macron playing at then?

He seems to think that a deal with the centre-right (now called the Droite Républicain, ex-Les Républicains, ex UMP etc etc) will be easier than a deal with the moderate parts of the Left alliance. He hopes that he could then attract parts of the centre-left into government.

Isn’t that sensible enough?

The problem is that the leader of the centre-right, Laurent Wauquiez, is refusing to join a coalition with Macron, even one led by a centre-right Prime Minister. Just like Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the hard-left La France Insoumise, Wauquiez prefers chaos to coalition. Like Mélenchon, he believes that chaos will help his chances of becoming President in 2027 or even earlier if Macron is forced to resign.

So what is a poor President of the Republic to do? First, he should make it clear that he will not control the next government as Fifth Republic presidents usually have. He must accept that the new Prime Minister and the parliament will largely run domestic policy.

Is that likely?

Macron told the last cabinet meeting of the last government that he expected only to be the “referee” for the new administration. That was a step in the right direction. On Monday night he spoke of “compromise” on all sides. He did not say he would step back from domestic policy. Maybe he intends to be a ball-playing referee.

So what happens now?

It is very unlikely that the whole of the centre-right or the whole of the Parti Socialiste on the centre-left would join a coalition. Macron and his Prime Minister Gabriel Attal must try nonetheless to attract the support of large parts of both.

On Monday, Macron said that negotiations should start with a common programme not with the name of a would-be Prime Minister. Is he right?

No. That is not the Belgian way. The Belgians know about these things. Macron should decide whether to ask a credible and consensual figure from the centre-right or from the centre-left to form a rainbow government stretching from moderate left to moderate right. That would have a greater chance of success than anything that appears like a crude attempt to expand the defeated Macron centre.

Is there any hope of a deal?

There is always hope.