Meloni’s close ally Viktor Orban of Hungary has poached some of her backers in the European Parliament, and the far-right National Rally (RN) suffered an election humbling in France.

However, Italy’s most right-wing leader since the end of World War II may still have cards to play, analysts say.

READ ALSO: What does Meloni’s EU election success mean for foreigners in Italy?

Since coming to power in October 2022, she has toned down her Euroscepticism and fallen in line with most EU leaders by staunchly backing Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

And she has collaborated with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, helping calm nerves in Brussels.

But recent events, most notably the formation of a new bloc within the European Parliament founded by Orban, are now causing Meloni serious problems, say political watchers.

Add to that the surprise defeat of Marine Le Pen’s RN in French parliamentary elections on Sunday, and the victory of centre-left Labour in Britain, and the week for Meloni “certainly wasn’t good”, wrote La Stampa daily.

Meloni was fresh off a high in June when her European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) bloc in the European Parliament gained new members to become the body’s third-largest faction.

She had displaced the bloc linked to France’s Emmanuel Macron – with whom she has frosty relations.

READ ALSO: Italy’s hard-right government demands top EU commission job

But the success turned sour on Monday when Orban’s Patriots for Europe grouping overtook the ECR as it accumulated parties – not only France’s RN but also poaching Spain’s Vox from Meloni’s camp.

“It’s bad news in terms of numbers but more importantly it’s bad news because they’ve stolen the limelight,” Daniele Albertazzi, a professor of politics at the University of Surrey, told AFP.

“They’ve clearly shaken up the agenda in the last week or two, they’ve managed to bring in very large parties.”

Political analyst Anna Bonalume said Vox’s defection “shows to what extent Giorgia Meloni has been weakened by this European series of events”.

Moreover, Orban made a surprise visit to Moscow last week that was widely criticised by Ukraine’s Western allies.

This could add to deteriorating relations with Meloni, who in the past has scored points in Brussels for extracting concessions from the Hungarian leader.

“If, following Orban’s visit to Moscow, there’s a definitive break with Orban, Meloni would be completely isolated in Europe,” Bonalume told AFP.

Another potential competitor emerged Thursday with the formation of a new far-right group, Europe of Sovereign Nations, led by Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, fresh off its best-ever EU election result.

‘Playing the game’

The French election would not have pleased Meloni.

Italian media reported that she had counted on a Macron defeat to help in negotiating an influential role for Italy within the next European Commission, after being marginalised last month when leaders chose senior positions.

“But the bet didn’t work,” La Repubblica newspaper wrote.

On Tuesday, Meloni sought to put a positive spin on recent events, saying unstable governments were long a fixture in Italy, in contrast to stable ones enjoyed by its neighbours.

“Today we see an Italy with a very solid government in a Europe in which there are very unstable governments and this must make us proud,” she said on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Washington.

READ ALSO: Italy’s Meloni hopes EU ‘understands message’ from voters

Despite the professed strength of Italy’s government, the leader of the populist League, Matteo Salvini, continues to provoke his coalition partner Meloni without attacking her directly, having joined Orban’s grouping and calling it “determinant to change the future of this Europe”.

But Meloni, as leader of the EU’s third-largest economy, is capable of turning the recent setbacks to her advantage, Albertazzi said.

“It depends on how she plays the game,” he said.

“It’s not all bad news because it also helps Meloni strengthen her own narrative, which is ‘I am the responsible and moderate radical right’.”

And if Meloni manages to secure a top commissioner role for Italy, she can show she still has influence in Brussels.

“She’ll be able to say, ‘Those people over there make noise but I’m the one bringing about some change.'”

By AFP’s Ella Ide