The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) held its national party conference at the weekend in the western German city of Essen – despite mass protests against the party.

The party’s co-leaders, Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, were re-elected at the conference. Party delegates also adopted resolutions on foreign policy toward Russia, China and the United States. 

“We want to govern, first in the east (of Germany), then in the west, then at federal level,” Chrupalla announced at the two-day party conference.

This comment – along with recent election results – have revitalised fears that the AfD could step into higher positions of power in Germany. So how likely is that?

Ambitions to govern the Bundesrepublik

The AfD party conference comes ahead of September state parliamentary elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD is expected to make a strong showing – potentially even winning the majority of votes in some regions.

The party had relatively strong results in recent local elections in those states – winning elections in Brandenburg for the first time. In Thuringia, AfD candidates lost run-off elections for local positions, but the party maintains its influence in the state as the second most popular party behind the CDU.

READ ALSO: Germany’s far-right AfD sees strong gains in local eastern elections

Churpalla’s statement on wanting to get into power in Germany echo comments that have been made by members and supporters at various levels of the party.

For instance, Henning Zoz, one of the party’s financial backers who also plans to run for the mayor of the town of Siegen, told German business news outlet WiWo that he plans to later enter the Bundestag and then ride “the wave directly into the Chancellery”.

But political scientists have told The Local that the party doesn’t have a high chance of getting into a government at the moment.

Asked about the likelihood of the AfD taking power at the state or federal level, Dr. Ursula Münch, head of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, told The Local that statements like Chrupalla’s “completely ignore the fact that the AfD will not find a coalition partner due to its partly extremist orientation”.

The so-called Brandmauer, or firewall, against the party means that for now, Germany’s mainstream parties have ruled out the possibility of bringing the AfD into a governing coalition at the federal level.

However, as the party’s popularity has grown in recent years, there have been signs that the Brandmauer is loosening, with some state leaders showing willingness to at least informally cooperate with AfD politicians.

Still, Münch suggests that the AfD won’t see their members join state or federal coalitions for the time being.

She added: “The party is a long way from an absolute majority of seats, even in Thuringia and Saxony”, thanks in part to the success of former Left Party politician Sahra Wagenknecht  and her BSW party, which appears to be drawing votes from the AfD’s supporter base.

Meanwhile, Kai Arzheimer, political scientist at the University of Mainz, previously told The Local that it would be “highly unlikely” that the AfD could join Germany’s federal government. 

But Arzheimer did say that he was “very worried”, about the party’s trajectory. 

Following a surge of anti-AfD protests in January, he had noted that at that time it looked very possible for the party to reach a majority in the state parliaments in Thuringia or Saxony. While the AfD maintains a stronghold of support in these states, it has lost a few points in recent polls following recent scandals.

READ ALSO: How worried should Germany be about the far-right AfD after mass deportation scandal?

Mass protests over the weekend 

It comes as thousands of people protested against the AfD party conference in Essen on Saturday and Sunday. 

Groups of up to several hundred protesters repeatedly attempted to block delegates from attending the conference, police reported on Saturday evening.

According to information shared by protestors on social media, 1,500 people temporarily blocked an exit of the A52 highway. Other groups trapped party members in a hotel, and blocked a subway entrance.

Police forces moved in to clear blockades, and clashed with protestors at some locations.

“In the course of these violent actions, our colleagues had to make repeated use of batons and irritant gas,” police told DPA. 

Video clips on social media showed some of these clashes, including moments when police appeared to use excessive force on protestors who were acting peacefully.

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📍Essen
Schwere Auseinandersetzungen mit der Polizei bei der Räumung einer Sitzblockade.#Essen #AfD #Polizei #NRW pic.twitter.com/YECzeWBEIV

— BlaulichtRheinlandNRW (@nrw_blaulicht) June 30, 2024

On Saturday the police reported that officers were injured during the day’s events, and that several people had been arrested.

For their part, protest organisers criticised police, accusing them of bringing unnecessary force against largely peaceful protest actions.

Asked about the anti-AfD protests in Essen, Münch noted that, “The majority of the demonstration against the AfD party conference was peaceful.”

But she made clear that violent acts of protest must be condemned.

“Violent attacks against AfD delegates and police officers only benefit the AfD,” she said. “The party uses these incidents to portray itself as a victim. And to bolster its false claim that ‘internal security in Germany is at risk’.”

Christian Baumann of the initiative “Essen stellt sich quer” (Essen stands up for itself) told the TAZ newspaper that protests were overwhelmingly peaceful.

Baumann suggested that police warnings of a “robust deployment of strong security forces” likely deterred some who wanted to protest. According to TAZ, a witness on the sidelines of a protest noted that there were more police officers present than demonstrators at one location.

With reporting by DPA and AFP