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Germany’s Finance Minister fears ‘tragedy’ for French if deficits grow

Germany's Finance Minister Christian Lindner has said France faced financial disaster if elections returned a government that increases the country's large debt pile.

French President Emmanuel Macron (2ndL) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (2ndR) arrive with fellow ministers German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (R) and French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne (L) and others for a family photo at the end of a joint Franco-German cabinet meeting of ministers near Berlin on May 28, 2024.
French President Emmanuel Macron (2ndL) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (2ndR) arrive with fellow ministers German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (R) and French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne (L) and others for a family photo at the end of a joint Franco-German cabinet meeting of ministers near Berlin on May 28, 2024. Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP

“A tragedy could threaten the French,” Lindner said when asked what would happen if a new government racked up more debt.

France goes to the polls on Sunday in the first round of snap legislative elections called by President Emmanuel Macron after his centrist alliance was beaten by the far right in European Parliament elections.

The risk for France was similar to Britain when short-lived prime minister Liz Truss ordered a shock economic programme and “lost credibility with financial markets”, Lindner said at an event hosted by the Ifo economic institute.

Shortly after coming into office, Truss and her government revealed a tax-slashing budget, causing bond yields to soar and sparking panic.

The turmoil put pressure on pension funds and forced the Bank of England to step in to purchase bonds and avoid a financial catastrophe.

Lindner said he did not see a “risk of contagion” to other financial institutions in France in a similar scenario.

The German minister however said he hoped the European Central Bank would not have to take action, adding that this would raise “economic and…  constitutional questions”.

The ECB could be moved to intervene if France’s borrowing costs rose quickly, widening the gap with benchmark German bonds.

The central bank created a crisis-fighting tool in 2022 – the so-called Transmission Protection Instrument – to ease tension on bond markets amid a spike in Italian borrowing costs.

The scheme can be used to “counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics” that scramble the ECB’s policy goals, so long as countries commit to fiscal policies that do not put the public finances at risk.

Lindner declined to speculate on the result of the French elections.

The far-right National Rally (RN) leads voter surveys, prompting speculation it may be able to form a government.

Yields on France’s debt have soared since the poll was called — a sign of weakening confidence as investors react to the lavish spending plans from the far left and the RN.

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POLITICS

‘We want to govern’: Could the far-right AfD join a coalition in Germany?

The far-right AfD party conference was met by mass protests against the party. But comments by party leaders suggest that the party is confident it will continue to grow. Could the far-right party join a governing coalition?

'We want to govern': Could the far-right AfD join a coalition in Germany?

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) held its national party conference at the weekend in the western German city of Essen – despite mass protests against the party.

The party’s co-leaders, Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, were re-elected at the conference. Party delegates also adopted resolutions on foreign policy toward Russia, China and the United States. 

“We want to govern, first in the east (of Germany), then in the west, then at federal level,” Chrupalla announced at the two-day party conference.

This comment – along with recent election results – have revitalised fears that the AfD could step into higher positions of power in Germany. So how likely is that?

Ambitions to govern the Bundesrepublik

The AfD party conference comes ahead of September state parliamentary elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD is expected to make a strong showing – potentially even winning the majority of votes in some regions.

The party had relatively strong results in recent local elections in those states – winning elections in Brandenburg for the first time. In Thuringia, AfD candidates lost run-off elections for local positions, but the party maintains its influence in the state as the second most popular party behind the CDU.

READ ALSO: Germany’s far-right AfD sees strong gains in local eastern elections

Churpalla’s statement on wanting to get into power in Germany echo comments that have been made by members and supporters at various levels of the party.

For instance, Henning Zoz, one of the party’s financial backers who also plans to run for the mayor of the town of Siegen, told German business news outlet WiWo that he plans to later enter the Bundestag and then ride “the wave directly into the Chancellery”.

But political scientists have told The Local that the party doesn’t have a high chance of getting into a government at the moment.

Asked about the likelihood of the AfD taking power at the state or federal level, Dr. Ursula Münch, head of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, told The Local that statements like Chrupalla’s “completely ignore the fact that the AfD will not find a coalition partner due to its partly extremist orientation”.

The so-called Brandmauer, or firewall, against the party means that for now, Germany’s mainstream parties have ruled out the possibility of bringing the AfD into a governing coalition at the federal level.

However, as the party’s popularity has grown in recent years, there have been signs that the Brandmauer is loosening, with some state leaders showing willingness to at least informally cooperate with AfD politicians.

Still, Münch suggests that the AfD won’t see their members join state or federal coalitions for the time being.

She added: “The party is a long way from an absolute majority of seats, even in Thuringia and Saxony”, thanks in part to the success of former Left Party politician Sahra Wagenknecht  and her BSW party, which appears to be drawing votes from the AfD’s supporter base.

Meanwhile, Kai Arzheimer, political scientist at the University of Mainz, previously told The Local that it would be “highly unlikely” that the AfD could join Germany’s federal government. 

But Arzheimer did say that he was “very worried”, about the party’s trajectory. 

Following a surge of anti-AfD protests in January, he had noted that at that time it looked very possible for the party to reach a majority in the state parliaments in Thuringia or Saxony. While the AfD maintains a stronghold of support in these states, it has lost a few points in recent polls following recent scandals.

READ ALSO: How worried should Germany be about the far-right AfD after mass deportation scandal?

police break up anti-afd protest

The police break up a sit-in blockade not far from where the AfD party conference is taking place in Essen. Numerous organizations announced opposition to the meeting and more than a dozen counter-demonstrations were organised. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Henning Kaiser

Mass protests over the weekend 

It comes as thousands of people protested against the AfD party conference in Essen on Saturday and Sunday. 

Groups of up to several hundred protesters repeatedly attempted to block delegates from attending the conference, police reported on Saturday evening.

According to information shared by protestors on social media, 1,500 people temporarily blocked an exit of the A52 highway. Other groups trapped party members in a hotel, and blocked a subway entrance.

Police forces moved in to clear blockades, and clashed with protestors at some locations.

“In the course of these violent actions, our colleagues had to make repeated use of batons and irritant gas,” police told DPA. 

Video clips on social media showed some of these clashes, including moments when police appeared to use excessive force on protestors who were acting peacefully.

On Saturday the police reported that officers were injured during the day’s events, and that several people had been arrested.

For their part, protest organisers criticised police, accusing them of bringing unnecessary force against largely peaceful protest actions.

Asked about the anti-AfD protests in Essen, Münch noted that, “The majority of the demonstration against the AfD party conference was peaceful.”

But she made clear that violent acts of protest must be condemned.

“Violent attacks against AfD delegates and police officers only benefit the AfD,” she said. “The party uses these incidents to portray itself as a victim. And to bolster its false claim that ‘internal security in Germany is at risk’.”

Christian Baumann of the initiative “Essen stellt sich quer” (Essen stands up for itself) told the TAZ newspaper that protests were overwhelmingly peaceful.

Baumann suggested that police warnings of a “robust deployment of strong security forces” likely deterred some who wanted to protest. According to TAZ, a witness on the sidelines of a protest noted that there were more police officers present than demonstrators at one location.

With reporting by DPA and AFP

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