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ELECTIONS

French election breakdown: Military power-struggle, French preference and beers

From the question of who controls the French armed forces to the brutal battle of the polls, via the candidates' beer-drinking skills - here's all the latest from the campaign trail as we head into the first round of voting in France's snap parliamentary elections.

Published: 28 June 2024 07:48 CEST
French election breakdown: Military power-struggle, French preference and beers
French President Emmanuel Macron reviews troops on a visit to Jordan. Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP

During the election period we will be publishing a bi-weekly ‘election breakdown’ to help you keep up with the latest developments. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

We’re now 19 days on from Emmanuel Macron’s surprise election announcement, with the first round of voting on Sunday.

Military force

I’m not saying that this election is terrifying, but the current debate in France is whether, as president, Macron is truly the head of the armed forces or only “nominally”.

France, let’s remember, is a nuclear power and at the moment it can’t seem to agree who actually controls its army . . .

The military question – especially in the context of France’s strong support for Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion – is only one reason why the rest of the world is paying close attention to these elections. Over in Brussels there is something approaching panic at the though of an anti-EU party in control of one of the ‘joint engines’ of the European Union, while financial markets are already seriously spooked about two of the party manifestos.

Polls

The polls have been making grim reading for Macron’s party ever since he called this election, but as the week has gone on they have consistently provided bad news for everybody apart from Marine Le Pen and her far-right Rassemblement National party.

RN seems to be extending its lead and could be getting within striking distance of an absolute majority in parliament. Previous polls had the party as winning the biggest vote share, but not getting enough seats for a majority.

This makes a huge difference as an RN with a majority would be much more likely to be able to implement its flagship policies – including excluding dual nationals from certain jobs and imposing ‘French preference’ on job, housing and social benefits. This essentially means state-imposed discrimination against anyone who is not French from birth.

What is ‘French preference’ and how would it hurt foreigners in France?

Dry bottom

You might think that the ability to ‘cul sec‘ (down in one) a pint of beer has no bearing on a politician’s ability or suitability for the role. You might think that this kind of macho bullshit has no place on the campaign trail.

And you might be right – but if we were picking politicians on their drinking ability, ex president and current parliamentary candidate in Corrèze François Hollande would make a strong case.

What happens over the next week?

Polling day for round one is Sunday, June 30th with polling stations open from 8am to 8pm in most areas.

At 8pm on Sunday the preliminary results are released – these are created by taking sample votes counts from carefully selected polling stations, and are usually very accurate. These results tell us who will be standing in the second round in each constituency (or if any candidates have achieved an outright win, meaning that there will be no second round in their constituency).

READ ALSO How does France’s two-round voting system work?

On Wednesday, July 3rd, the official list of candidates for the second round in each constituency is published, and by this date posters for eliminated candidates should also be removed from the billboards.

Sunday, July 7th, is polling day for round two and it follows the same format as round one – preliminary results are released at 8pm, this time telling us the winner in each constituency.

Then the calculations begin to see if any party or group has scored the magic number of seats – 289 – required for an absolute majority in the Assembleé nationale.

If any party or group has an absolute majority, they have the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister. If there’s no majority then it’s likely that an extended period of negotiations to try and form a coalition will begin – although this is somewhat uncharted territory . . .

You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive these election breakdowns as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

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ELECTION

Explained: What was France’s Fourth Republic and why it’s in the news again

With projections for a deadlocked parliament after the second round of voting and widespread predictions of political chaos, many French commentators are starting to make comparisons with France's Fourth Republic - for those of us who didn't grow up in France, here's what that means.

Published: 2 July 2024 12:06 CEST
Explained: What was France's Fourth Republic and why it's in the news again

Le spectre de la IVe République plane-t-il sur Macron ? – Is the spectre of the Fourth Republic hanging over Macron?

If you’re following French press coverage of the chaotic political situation in France right now, you might be coming across more and more sentences like this.

But while the Fourth Republic is a standard part of the French history syllabus, it doesn’t make it into many lesson plans outside France.

Here’s a look at what the Fourth Republic was, and why it might be relevant to the modern political crisis.

When 

The 4th republic ran from 1946 to 1958. French history is divided into the ancien regième (pre French Revolution) and the post-Revolution period which is divided into a series of republics, interspersed with a few non-republic periods such as when Napoleon got carried away and declared himself emperor.

You can find a fuller history here, but in brief the republics go; 

  • 1792-1804 – first republic. Runs from the abolition of the monarchy during the French Revolution until Napoleon declared himself emperor
  • 1848-1852 – second republic. Ended when Napoleon’s nephew Louis Napoleon (Napoleon III) overthrew the government and declared a second French empire with himself at the head
  • 1870-1940 – third republic. Ended with the Nazi invasion of France in 1940 when the republic was suspended and the period of the occupation and Vichy government began.
  • 1946-1958 – fourth republic. This one ended with a threatened military coup over Algerian independence, a panicked government brought WWII resistance leader Charles de Gaulle back into government and passed a new constitution.
  • 1958-present day – fifth republic. 

Each republic has its own constitution with significant differences in aspects such as how the political system works and the powers of the president versus the government.

What was going on?

The Fourth Republic covered a turbulent period in French politics – in 1946 the country was emerging from one of the most traumatic periods in its history; the Nazi occupation of World War II.

Nearly bankrupt, the country was also dealing with the national shame of the occupation and the collapse of the democratic government in 1940 (replaced by the un-elected collaborationist Vichy regime). 

The Fourth Republic ended in turmoil (as have all French republics so far, in fact) during the exceptionally brutal war of independence in Algeria.

Sensing that the government in Paris was paving the way for Algeria to be given independence from France, French soldiers in Algeria launched a military coup in opposition to this – the military also seized power in Corsica.

The national government panicked, fearing that insurrection could spread to France itself and other colonies.

Charles de Gaulle – who made his name as a figurehead of the French resistance during WWII and as the country’s first post-war leader – was called out of retirement to unite the country, restore order and avoid what some feared would become a civil war.

But what about the politics?

The Fourth Republic wasn’t just a turbulent period in history – it was also an extremely unstable period for governments.

Over its 12-year duration, there were a total of 24 governments. 

Governments rose and fell with dizzying regularity – a man named Pierre Pflimlin was prime minister for a grand total of 18 days in 1958, and he wasn’t even the shortest-serving PM of the fourth republic.

Parliament was also frequently deadlocked, coalitions and alliances were made and broken rapidly and prime ministers came and went as through a revolving door – the shortest serving PM was Robert Schuman who served just nine days, but that was his second shot at the job.

Henri Queuille was prime minister three times, in 1948, 1950 and 1951 and his first period in the job was the longest premiership of the Fourth Republic, lasting a whopping one year and 47 days.

It was a reaction to this political chaos that strongly influenced the constitution of the Fifth Republic – set up with Charles de Gaulle at the head in 1958.

De Gaulle insisted that the president was given widespread powers, at the expense of parliament, in order to curb what he saw at the excess of parliamentary powers that contributed to the turmoil of the Fourth Republic.

It’s why the French president to this day has constitutional powers to over-rule parliament, for example through the tool known as Article 49.3 which allows a president to force through legislation even if parliament opposes it.

The Fifth Republic also set up the president as the dominant political power in France – previously that had been the prime minister, with the president having more of a ceremonial role.

Its sheer instability means that these days the Fourth Republic is little lamented – those who call for a complete change of the system of government and the creation of a Sixth Republic tend to skip over the fourth altogether and use as a model the Third Republic.

But this is ancient history, why are we talking about it now?

The Fourth Republic is back in the news because it looks like France may be facing a new period of chaos in parliament.

The snap parliamentary elections called by president Emmanuel Macron were intended to restore a sense of consensus, but look like they are backfiring and instead creating a more turbulent situation.

Current polls suggest that the far-right Rassemblement National will be the biggest party, but it’s not certain whether they will win enough seats in parliament to gain an absolute majority.

If the party wins a majority the most likely outcome is that Macron will be forced to appoint far-right leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister and rule jointly with him in a very uneasy cohabitation.

If the far-right become the biggest party but don’t get a majority the most likely result is chaos – with attempts to build fragile alliances or coalitions between parties.

The “spectre of the Fourth Republic” is therefore the spectre of chaos and deadlock in parliament and maybe even a PM who will break Robert Schuman’s unenviable record of just nine days in office.

OPINION: The best that France can hope for now is 12 months of chaos

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