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ELECTIONS

Former French president Hollande says Macron ascendency ‘is over’

French President Emmanuel Macron's ascendancy is "over", former head of state Francois Hollande told AFP Saturday, after his former protege called a snap election likely to hand massive gains to the far right.

Published: 22 June 2024 17:45 CEST
Former French president, member of French left-wing Socialist Party (PS) and candidate for left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) in the Correze department Francois Hollande (R) shakes hands with a butcher as he meets locals during a campaign visit, ahead of the upcoming elections, in Ussel, central France
Former French president, member of French left-wing Socialist Party (PS) and candidate for left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) in the Correze department Francois Hollande (R) shakes hands with a butcher as he meets locals during a campaign visit, ahead of the upcoming elections, in Ussel, central France on June 22, 2024. (Photo by Pascal LACHENAUD / AFP)

“I have no scores to settle at all. That’s all in the past,” Hollande said on the campaign trail in his native Correze department in central France, where he is standing to be an MP.

Suffering at the time from abysmal poll ratings, Socialist Hollande did not himself stand for a second term at the 2017 election.

Running as a pro-business centrist, his former economy minister Macron pulled off a surprise win that shattered traditional governing parties on the left and the right.

Now just two years into the younger man’s second term, “Macronism is over, if indeed it ever existed. But it’s over, I say it with no special hostility,” Hollande said.

“I don’t mean that his presidential term is coming to an end, that’s something different. But what he may have represented for a time is over,” he added.

Re-elected in 2022 for a second five-year term, Macron lost his absolute majority in parliament in legislative polls the same year.

His party has limped on in minority government, passing hard-fought and controversial reforms including raising the pension age and toughening immigration law.

But a heavy defeat at June 9’s European Parliament election prompted Macron to dissolve parliament in hopes of breaking the deadlock.

READ ALSO: French left vows new taxes as snap election draws near

A new chamber will be elected on June 30 and July 7 with the far-right National Rally (RN) looking set to win the most seats.

‘Heavy cost’

France’s two-round electoral system makes predicting outcomes tricky, but it is highly unlikely that Macron’s gamble will pay off by winning a new majority.

Instead, he could find himself presiding over a government run by an ideological opponent.

Macron’s rule has “had a heavy political cost,” Hollande said.

“The parties were heavily damaged and public morale was too. The far right has never been so strong.”

Hollande’s Socialist party has formed an electoral alliance with other left parties including Greens, Communists and hard-left France Unbowed (LFI).

Their New Popular Front (NFP) is currently running second to the RN in the polls, both well ahead of Macron’s Renaissance outfit.

“It’s time for a political realignment,” Hollande said.

READ ALSO: OPINION: France has taken leave of its senses, and it’s no laughing matter

“I didn’t plan to stand for any election in my position, something very serious had to happen” in the shape of the RN’s more than 31 percent in the European election, he added.

Some Socialist voters have struggled with the idea of backing an alliance with LFI and its fiery leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, with some party figures accused of anti-Semitism and a history of Eurosceptic statements.

“I’m in the framework of an alliance because it has to be done, but there’s no kind of confusion” between his positions and Melenchon’s, Hollande said.

If elected, “I’ll be an MP who will call for responsibility whatever happens… vigilant and committed to finding solutions,” he added.

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FRENCH ELECTIONS

French elections: What next after first round of voting?

Sunday, June 30th sees the first round of voting in France's extremely dramatic snap elections - but this is only half the story. Here's a look at what happens next.

Published: 30 June 2024 08:08 CEST
French elections: What next after first round of voting?

Two-round voting

Voters in France go to the polls twice, meaning that the voting of June 30th is only the first phase, with a second round required if no candidate polls more than 50 percent in the opening round.

In this election the first and second rounds are just one week apart – voters will return on Sunday, July 7th and make their choice between the second-round candidates. Votes are not carried forward between the rounds, meaning that July 7th is a blank slate.

While most areas will have a choice of around eight candidates in round one, only the highest scorers go through to round two.

The two highest scorers from round one go through, along with any other candidate who gets more than 12.5 percent of the total votes cast. In most areas, round two is a two-horse race, but in some places there are three-way or even four-way contests.

READ ALSO How does France’s two round voting system work?

There are also some places that don’t have a second at all – if one candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes cast in round one (and if that also makes up more than 25 percent of the registered voters in that area) then they win outright and no second round is held.

This is rare but it does happen at parliamentary election level – it has never happened during a presidential election – so there will likely be a few constituencies that have no second round.

First round results 

Therefore the results of round one in most cases will tell us only who will be the candidates for each area in round two – not who has or will win.

That’s still pretty significant though, especially in these elections where it is predicted that many Macronist candidates will be knocked out in the first round.

The seats with a second-round contest between a candidate from the far-right Rassemblement National and the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire will be the ones that all eyes are upon.

France’s most experienced pollsters admit that predicting which way voters will go in a choice between an RN or NPF candidate is tough – although that doesn’t mean that many people won’t try to make that calculation over the next week.

Faire un barrage

Typically in French elections, the defeated parties will urge their supporters to vote for one side or the other in the second round.

That’s usually even more the case when a far-right candidate is still involved – parties will call on voters to Faire un barrage (make a roadblock) against the far right, or invoke Le Front républicain, the term for when parties unite across the political divide to combat the far-right.

However, having called this election as a referendum on the far-right, Emmanuel Macron and many of his ministers have spent the campaign referring to both RN and NPF as ‘les extremes‘ and saying both pose a threat to the country.

Will the Macronists take part in the Front républicain in seats where they have been defeated? Time will tell.

Voters who find the second-round choices unpalatable have the option of abstaining (which is why turnout will be carefully monitored) or casting a ‘vote blanc‘ – a blank ballot paper – to express their opposition.

Round two

Round two of voting takes place on Sunday, July 7th and – like round one – provisional results will be released at 8pm.

A party needs a minimum of 289 seats to get an overall majority in parliament – any party that gets this number will be able to put forward their candidate for prime minister. If it is either RN or NPF, that prime minister will then enter a cohabitation with Emmanuel Macron – who remains president whatever the results are.

If no-one gets 289 seats, then we’re in for messy and protracted negotiations.

The most likely scenarios are either a coalition or some kind of ‘government of national unity’ headed by figures from outside politics.

Coalition, resignation of unity government? The possible outcomes of France’s snap elections

Truthfully, however, no-one really knows since this has never happened since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958. We’re entering uncharted waters . . .

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