For many years, as in many countries, the election of the European parliament was something of a non-event in Germany.

Between 1999 and 2014, a meagre 38-43 percent of the German electorate made it to the polling booth to vote for their EU representatives, despite the country’s reputation as a cornerstone of the European project.

Over the past five years, however, the mood has changed. According to analysts at the Konrad Adenauer Stifting, EU elections have become something of a temperature check in Germany, giving disgruntled voters a chance to air their views on the governing parties in between federal and state elections. 

This year, a record 64.8 percent of voters cast their ballot – and the message to the government was clear. All three of the traffic-light coalition parties – the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) – languished well below 15 percent, while the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) parties won the largest vote share at 30 percent. 

READ ALSO: Conservatives lead as Scholz’s coalition suffers defeat at EU polls in Germany

Most shocking, however, was the other clear winner of Germany’s EU elections: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which landed in second place with 15.9 percent of the vote and increased their vote share by almost five percent, compared to the results of the last EU elections in 2019. 

In eastern states like Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony, the party gained the largest share of the votes, polling around 30 percent. 

Similar results were returned in the local elections that were held the same day. In the former GDR states of Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania, the AfD emerged as the clear victor in the vast majority of local communes. 

For many foreigners in Germany – especially those who were unable to vote themselves – the gains made by the far-right have been shocking.

The AfD is emerging as a serious contender in German politics, and appears to be moving from the fringes to the mainstream. 

READ ALSO: Germany’s far-right AfD sees strong gains in local eastern elections

Normalisation of the far-right

The election results made clear that for many AfD voters, there’s no longer a reason to have to hide. A recent study by the Scientific Centre for Social Research in Berlin confirmed this view, highlighting how far-right ideas on topics like migration and Islam had come to be more widely accepted among the general public, as well as shaping media discourse.

For more than six months now, the AfD has been buffeted by scandal after scandal: in Thuringia, AfD fraction leader Björn Höcke was recently found guilty of spouting banned nazi slogans in speeches, while in the run-up the EU elections, leading candidate Maxmilian Krah was rocked by accusations of corruption after an aide was arrested on suspicion of spying for China. Then he was banned from appearing in the election after he made comments downplaying the crimes of Nazi SS officers.

Back in November, an investigation by Correctiv revealed that prominent members of the AfD had attended a secret meeting in which they discussed the concept of ‘remigration’: sending unwanted foreigners, including those with a migration background, back to their supposed home countries. 

But despite the media frenzy around these revelations, the far-right party still made significant gains on polling day, though admittedly not as well as earlier polls suggested.

“The strong turnout of the AfD, especially in the east German states, shows that the party increasingly establishes itself in Germany’s party system,” York Albrecht, researcher at the Institute for European Politics in Berlin, told Al Jazeera.

This increasing normalisation of extreme parties and positions could make it hard to reverse the gains that the AfD has made and may push other more parties even further to the right. 

Influence on German politics 

With all of Germany’s major parties refusing to govern alongside the AfD, it’s highly unlikely that the party will ever get a chance to enact their own policies – but their growing influence in Germany means that others may well deliver them on their behalf. 

Nowhere is this more prominent than in the backlash against widespread migration, with even centre-left parties in government taking a tougher and more populist line on the treatment of refugees, for example by restricting access to social benefits.

Though the CDU/CSU parties emerged as the winner of the EU elections, there are some questions about why they failed to capitalise fully on the disastrous polling numbers of the three ruling parties. 

Germany (European Parliament election):

Preliminary final results (seats)

CDU-EPP: 23
AfD-NI: 15
SPD-S&D: 14
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12
CSU-EPP: 6
BSW→NI: 6
FDP-RE: 5
LINKE-LEFT: 3
FW-RE: 3
Volt-G/EFA: 3
…

Special election page: https://t.co/1An2baUJmP#Europawahl2024 #EP2024 pic.twitter.com/XYWJKG0Esc

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) June 10, 2024

While the SPD, Greens and FDP lost a total of 21 points collectively, the Union picked up just six of these, while the AfD made gains across the board. This fact could lead the centre-right parties to conclude that a further move to the right is required, such as calling for stricter migration controls, the scrapping of green policies or the restrictions of certain rights for foreigners.

This is a trend we’ve already seen in recent months from the CDU. When the party released its party programme back in May, the concept of Leitkultur took centre-stage. As opposed to multiculturism, Leitkultur involves migrants integrating fully into the dominant culture of Germany, adopting its language, culture, customs and way of life. 

READ ALSO: How the CDU wants to change Germany

Meanwhile, the poor results for the traffic-light coalition will put Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) under increased pressure to change course as the parties sit down for budget negotiations this month and next.  

Outside of the realm of parliamentary politics, it seems like fears about foreigners and the impact of migration are also on the rise.

In a 2023 survey ranking the fears of the Germans, the proportion of people who feared that Germany and its institutions could be overwhelmed by refugees rose by 11 points to 53 percent, while the proportion of people who feared migration could lead to a breakdown of German society increased by 10 point to 47 percent. 

This sense of fear and hostility may not have yet convinced the governing traffic-light coalition to change course on its plans to boost skilled migration, but the feeling of being unwelcome could have a tangible effect on foreigners’ lives.

Furthermore, if the EU elections can function as a predictor of what’s to come when the federal elections roll around in September next year, the CDU/CSU may well be in the driving seat, along with migration and social policies that echo those of the far-right. 

The wider EU picture

When it comes to the European parliament itself, the picture is slightly more nuanced.

Though the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) groups made gains, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by European President Ursula von der Leyen, remains the largest bloc. 

At present, it also appears that the extreme right is starting to fragment, especially after the AfD were kicked out of ID – in reaction to the aforementioned comments by Maximilian Krah that not all Nazi SS soldiers were criminals. 

READ ALSO: What the EU election results say about the state of politics in Germany

That said, experts agree that the latest round of parliamentary elections represents a drastic lurch to the right in European politics and could make it easier for right-wing and far-right parties to set the agenda over the next five years.

In concrete terms, that could mean torpedoing climate initiatives like the European Green Deal and plans to phase out combustion engines over the coming years.

READ ALSO: INTERVIEW – ‘Failed climate policies are fuelling far-right politics in Germany’

On the migration policy side, the European parliament could move towards implementing tougher rules for migrants and refugees and permitting the erosion of some civil rights for foreigners. 

However, experts say a key outcome of the current parliamentary constellation is that it will simply be harder to get anything done.

“Under this parliament, it will be hard to read a clear strategic agenda other than some of the core principles around security and the economy,” Susi Dennison, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Al Jazeera this week.

“What we will see emerging is deal-by-deal policymaking.”

In this situation, the far-right are bound to “play hard” to enforce their policies over the next five years, Dennison added.