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Spain’s government drops 2024 budget bill and opts for extension

Spain's left-wing government will not present a bill for the state's 2024 budget and will instead extend the current one for the rest of this year.

Published: 14 March 2024 16:45 CET
Spain's government drops 2024 budget bill and opts for extension
Under Spain's Constitution, the government can extend the budget for several years under certain conditions if there is no parliamentary agreement, which has happened several times in recent years.(Photo by Pierre-Philippe MARCOU / AFP)

The decision was taken following Wednesday’s announcement of snap elections in the Catalonia region, which could spell problems for the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to muster the necessary parliamentary support to ensure the budget passes.

With the Catalan elections “the political conditions change” and “parliamentary arithmetic is key to advancing the state budget,” admitted Juan Espadas, spokesman for Sánchez’s Socialist party.

Speaking to Cadena Ser radio on Wednesday night, Treasury Minister Maria Jesus Montero said the government was trying to be “realistic” in light of the changing political panorama and would instead “work on the budget for 2025”.

The 2024 budget should have been approved by the end of last year but was delayed due to an extended period of uncertainty following last July’s general election which resulted in a hung parliament.

Sánchez eventually secured a new four-year term in November following months of talks which involved the key support of two Catalan separatist parties, the hardline JxCat and its more moderate rival ERC.

His minority government relies on a fragile network of parliamentary allies to pass legislation.

The 2023 budget was initially extended on January 1st.

Catalonia’s snap elections, which will take place on May 12th, will monopolise the attention of JxCat and ERC and likely condition any parliamentary support they might offer to Sánchez’s Socialist party, which will also be contesting the regional vote.

“Without any doubt, the elections in Catalonia clearly alter the political landscape,” Montero told Cadena Ser radio, saying she wanted to “make the most off” the “preliminary” agreements already reached over the 2025 budget.

Under Spain’s Constitution, the government can extend the budget for several years under certain conditions if there is no parliamentary agreement, which has happened several times in recent years.

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POLITICS

Who will win the European elections in Spain?

Spaniards will soon vote in European elections. Here's what the polls say and which party is likely to come out on top.

Published: 31 May 2024 15:51 CEST
Who will win the European elections in Spain?

From June 6th to 9th, millions of people across Europe will go to the polls to elect members of the world’s only multinational parliament. In Spain polling day is, as always, on Sunday, so Spaniards will head to the polls on June 9th.

This comes at a politically delicate time not only around the world (economic uncertainty, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, major elections in India, the U.S and U.K this year, among other issues) but also in Spain.

After the Spanish government finally passed its controversial amnesty law for Catalan separatists on May 30th, many political pundits in the country are viewing the upcoming European polls as a referendum on the government and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in particular. If the Spanish right win a comfortable victory, as most polls predict, they may call for a general election.

READ ALSO: 10 things you should know about the European Parliamentary elections

If you’ve followed Spanish politics in the last year or so, you’ll know that it’s been something of a telenovela (soap opera), even by Spanish standards. Whether it be surprise snap general elections, Catalan separatists propping up the government, Spain’s Transport Minister saying the Argentinian President was on drugs, or Sánchez’s jaw-dropping five day sabbatical to decide whether or not he wanted to continue, Spanish politics is many things but certainly never boring.

We won’t go into too much detail now, but you can find all The Local’s political coverage here to get up to speed.

The important thing to understand is the political unpredictability that makes up the background to these European elections. And like with local and regional elections in Spain, these European results will be picked apart by politicians and pundits alike in order to score points, find deeper meaning and underlying trends, and make predictions about what they mean for the future.

READ ALSO: Spanish parliament approves controversial Catalan amnesty bill

Following recent regional elections in Galicia, the Basque Country and Catalonia, and on the back of regional and general elections last year, at times it can feel like Spanish politics is a never ending series of elections.

As such, Spanish pollsters are always busy. In recent weeks, they’ve turned their attention to the European elections.

Let’s take a look at some of the polls and what they’re predicting.

CIS

The pre-election poll conducted by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) gives Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE) a considerable lead over the right-wing Partido Popular (PP). It is worth noting here that the CIS is state-run, and therefore sometimes accused of being overly sympathetic to the government of the day, in this case PSOE.

CIS estimates that the PSOE will obtain between 32.8 percent and 35.2 percent of the vote, winning between 21 and 24 seats, followed by the PP with between 27.9 percent and 30.2 percent, which would give them between 18 and 20 MEPs.

In third place would be far-right Vox with 5 or 6 projected seats on between 8.6 percent and 10.1 percent of the vote.

On the far-left, Spain’s parties have been divided of late. In short, there’s been a split between Sumar, the current junior coalition member in government, and Podemos, the former junior coalition member in government. An interesting wrinkle to the European campaign is the reemergence of Irene Montero, Spain’s controversial former Equalities Minister, onto the political scene, who will be heading the Podemos list.

CIS projects Sumar will win 4 MEPs with between 5.9 percent and 7.2 percent of the vote.

Podemos is, according to CIS, on course for a vote share somewhere in the range of 4.4-5.4 percent, which would garner 2 or 3 seats. In 2019, the two parties ran together as Unidas Podemos and obtained 10.17 percent and 6 MEPs, so the split could propel the far-right into third place in Spain.

NC Report

The NC Report poll commissioned for La Razón published paints a very different picture to the CIS results, and gives the PP a comfortable victory. NC polling has the PP winning 36.1 percent of the vote and 24-25 seats. If the PP do win, it’s likely that it will heap pressure on Sánchez and call for a general election.

PSOE were projected to win 27.9 percent of the vote, almost ten points behind the PP, and 19 seats.

Where the NC poll does mirror the CIS results is that it puts Voxs in third place (9 percent of the vote, 6 seats).

Of the other parties, it has Sumar (6.8 percent, 4 seats), Ahora Repúblicas (5.2 percent, 3 seats), Podemos (3 percent, 2 seats), and Catalan separatists Junts (2.9 percent, 1-2 seats).

Sigma Dos

The Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo also gives victory to the PP with 35.1 percent of the vote and 24-25 seats.

The PSOE would come second and win 19-20 seats with 30.2 percent of the vote.

Sigma Dos also had Vox in third place (meaning all three major polls had the same result) obtaining 9.7 percent of the vote and 6 or 7 seats. Sumar was projected to win 7 percent of the vote and 4-5 seats, followed by Podemos (2 seats), Junts (1 seat) and new upstart political party ‘Se acabó la fiesta’ (1-2 seats)

For more on the 2024 European elections across Europe visit The Local Europe’s special election web page.

CIS is the only major poll putting the PSOE on course for victory.

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