Hej,

When the Turkish parliament this week ratified Sweden’s Nato application, almost two years after Sweden sent it in, the next step was for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to put his signature on the document for it to win legal force.

He had up to two weeks to do that, and I assumed he would wait until the very last moment in order to keep running the show. Even Turkey experts said as much. But then he surprised all of us by signing the document two days later.

The next step now is for Turkey to hand the document over to the US, which will mark the end of their involvement in the process. When it approved Finland, it handed over the ratification three days after Erdogan signed the document.

But as far as Sweden is concerned, Turkey isn’t the last country to approve its application – Hungary also has yet to ratify it, and there have been mixed messages coming from Hungary’s side in the past few months.

Hungary used to say they wouldn’t be the last country to ratify Sweden, but they’ve since backtracked on that, and it’s now a fact that they are. 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wrote on the X platform this week that he had sent a letter to his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, inviting him to come to Hungary to negotiate Sweden’s Nato accession (although the actual letter was far more diplomatic and didn’t use the term “negotiate”).

However, Orban also reiterated his government’s support of Sweden’s Nato membership and urged parliament “to vote in favour of Sweden’s accession and conclude the ratification at the first possible opportunity”.

Kristersson told Swedish media that he would be happy to meet Orban to discuss all sorts of things, but not negotiate the terms of ratification. In an interview with broadcaster TV4 on Friday morning he used a great politician phrase – det är inte aktuellt – which coincidentally, we had described in one of The Local’s Swedish Word of the Day articles only a few hours earlier.

Hungary’s parliament is supposed to reconvene on February 26th after the winter break, but could in theory be called back for an extraordinary session. 

This looks unlikely, though, as the parliamentary speaker said that he saw no reason to hurry things along, “on the contrary”, quoted the TT newswire.

If Hungary does decide to schedule a vote, things could move swiftly – as they did this week when Turkey voted to ratify. The document needs to be signed by President Katalin Novak, before being handed over to the US. 

The final step is then for Sweden to hand over its own accession documents to the US. One possible date when this could occur is February 14th-15th – when Nato defence ministers are due to meet in Brussels – but obviously this is only possible if Hungary has ratified Sweden’s application by then.

So if I’m to venture a guess – fully aware that I may have to eat my words – I predict that Sweden will join Nato in February or March. But if there’s anything we’ve learned from this process, it’s that some things are hard to predict.

(Also, I’m writing this on Friday afternoon, so I really hope nothing major changes between now and you reading this on Saturday!)

In other news

Sweden’s government has moved to tighten up the rules for citizenship via notification. But what is citizenship via notification, and who is eligible?

This week’s winner of The Local’s photo contest is Nicole Pieren Broekema, who snapped this snowy picture on the way to the sauna at Glamping Höga Kusten, the ecofarm she and her partner run on the High Coast of Sweden.

Food prices have gone up by 27 percent over the last two years on the same basket of groceries. But prices vary widely depending on the kind of shop you visit. We’ve put together our best tips for saving money on your food shop. 

What’s on the agenda for Sweden-India relations in 2024? From ministerial visits to factory openings, from the start of the cricket season to classical music recitals, it looks like it’s going to be a busy year.

More than 60,000 public employees were affected when a huge ransomware attack knocked out services for several retailers and authorities across the country. How prepared is Sweden for hacker attacks? We discuss this question on the latest episode of The Local’s Sweden in Focus podcast.

Stockholm commuters have been refunded almost one million kronor in the past few years, after discovering they were accidentally double-charged. You may want to check your bank statements to see if you’re one of them.

And finally, February is a busy month this year, with an interest rate announcement, semla extravaganza and Melodifestivalen all on the agenda, among other things. Here’s what to expect in Sweden next month.

Have a great weekend,

Emma Löfgren

Editor, The Local Sweden

Inside Sweden is our weekly newsletter for members that gives you news, analysis and, sometimes, takes you behind the scenes at The Local. It’s published each Saturday and members can receive it directly to your inbox, by going to your newsletter preferences.