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POLITICS

How worried should Germany be about the far-right AfD after mass deportation scandal?

As tens of thousands of people in Germany take to the streets to protest against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Local's Germany in Focus podcast asked a political scientist how concerning the party is and if a ban is likely.

Thousands protest against the AfD in Leipzig on Sunday.
Thousands protest against the AfD in Leipzig. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Sebastian Willnow

People across Germany – from Hamburg to Munich – have been getting out on the streets with placards to protest the far-right AfD following reports that party members discussed a plan to deport people with a foreign background in Germany at a meeting of extremists. 

At the weekend fresh protests took place, with organisers estimating around 1.4 million people in total attended demos calling for action against the far-right party and it’s anti-immigration rhetoric. 

It follows the publication of a report earlier this month by German news outlet Correctiv that exposed a meeting of far-right extremists that took place near Potsdam in November last year. 

The investigation detailed AfD members and other individuals reportedly talking about a concept called ‘remigration’ – which would involve the mass deportation of immigrants and “non-assimilated citizens” from Germany – in the event of the party coming to power.

The meeting was also attended by Martin Sellner, a leader of Austria’s extremist Identitarian Movement who reportedly presented the ‘remigration’ plans, which included details about deporting people to a “model state” in North Africa that could hold space for up to two million people.

The AfD distanced itself from the remigration plan, and party leader Alice Weidel is no longer working with her former aide Roland Hartweg, who is said to have attended the meeting.

READ ALSO: Germany’s far-right AfD denies plan to expel ‘non-assimilated foreigners’

But politicians, advocacy groups and people across Germany are outraged. 

“It’s really like a blast from the past, it reminds you of what happened in Germany in the 1930s and 40s,” political scientist Kai Arzheimer from the University of Mainz, told the Germany in Focus podcast. 

A sign at a protest on Sunday says: 'The whole of Leipzig hates the AfD'.

A sign at a protest on Sunday says: ‘The whole of Leipzig hates the AfD’. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Sebastian Willnow

“Obviously, we have a party, which is the second strongest opposition party in parliament; the strongest party in the eastern states, deliberating how they could deport, not just foreigners from Germany, but also Germans who have an unusual surname or whose skin is a different shade, or who have the ‘wrong’ kind of religion.

“This is very scary. And I’m in fact very worried about these developments. Unfortunately, not surprised, but still very worried.”

PODCAST: Germany’s citizenship law reaches crucial stage and could the AfD be banned?

With the party riding high in the polls, and with strong support in eastern regions ahead of three state elections later this year, many are wondering whether the investigation and backlash will have any impact on AfD voters.

Arzheimer said if an explosive report like this had come to light five or six years ago, he believes it would have severely limited support for the party.

But since then there have been a “drip feed of revelations”, surfacing about the AfD, including that a former MP was involved in an alleged plot to overthrow the German state.

“It hasn’t made a dent so far in support for the AfD,” said Arzheimer. “So unfortunately, those perhaps 20, 22 percent of the German population who intend to vote for that party are not in somehow dissuaded by all these revelations about revolution. So I don’t know what has to happen before these people change their minds.”

‘Germans need to wake up to this danger’

A debate has opened up about whether the AfD, which scored just over 10 percent of the vote in the federal election in 2021, should be banned. 

Arzheimer said the hurdles to banning a political party in Germany are “very high”.

Plans to ban the Communist Party and the neo-Nazi NPD failed “because the only institution that can ban a party in Germany is the Federal Constitutional Court”.

Evidence that the AfD is “actively working against the democratic constitution” would have to be presented to the court and then a “super-majority of two-thirds” would have vote in favour of the ban, said Arzheimer.

READ ALSO: ‘Silent majority’ marches against Germany’s far-right AfD

“So there is a real risk that this could backfire,” he added. “Imagine the government goes to the court and the court says ‘no, we’re not going to ban them’. That would be a boon for the AfD, they would have like a stamp of approval by the highest court in the country.”

This process to try and ban a party could also take around two years, giving the AfD plenty of time to promote their own narrative that would likely revolve around the state trying to ‘silence’ them.

Björn Höcke (AfD), parliamentary group leader in the Thuringian state parliament, speaks to journalists during a press conference in December 2023.

Björn Höcke (AfD), parliamentary group leader in the Thuringian state parliament, speaks to journalists during a press conference in December 2023. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Martin Schutt

“So this is why so far there is not too much political support for such a ban,” said Arzheimer. “But at the moment, there could be a change of heart, if you wish, within the political class because of the danger that the AfD presents for democracy.”

Arzheimer said Germans needed to wake up and take action against the party. 

“What I think is important is that ordinary Germans wake up to this danger, and that those who are disaffected with politics but not happy to basically expel their neighbours from Germany, that they stop non voting or reconsider their vote for the AfD and instead vote for democratic parties.”

Could the AfD enter a government in Germany?

Looking ahead to the elections in Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony, many people are wondering if the AfD could enter into power in future, either in a state or federal election, even though other parties have said they will not work with the AfD. 

READ ALSO: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

Arzheimer said it’s not impossible but “highly unlikely” that the AfD will ever be in a federal government. 

When it comes to the state level, it’s more unclear. This is a year to watch how things develop develop. 

“The AFD is particularly strong in Thuringia and Saxony. They are also particularly radical in these two states, and still, they are the strongest party – they have around 35 percent off the vote,” he said, adding that it’s possible that they could reach a majority in parliament depending on the performance of other parties. 

If the AfD gets the presidency of parliament in Thuringia, a gap in the state constitution “could give power to a future AfD parliamentary president to swear in (AfD leader in Thuringia) Björn Höcke as minister president of Thuringia and then we’re really in uncharted territory”, said Arzheimer. 

Höcke has been classified as a right wing extremist by the state’s intelligence services. 

“The state police would be under his control,” said Arzheimer. “This is scary. It’s not impossible, it’s perhaps not even highly likely, it’s still up in the air and depends on how the political process pans out over the next eight or nine months.”

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For members

GERMAN CITIZENSHIP

German conservatives vow to overturn dual citizenship if re-elected

Foreigners in Germany are waiting on tenterhooks for the introduction of the new dual nationality law on Thursday - but the centre-right CDU and CSU say they would overturn the reform if re-elected next year.

German conservatives vow to overturn dual citizenship if re-elected

“The CDU and CSU will reverse this unsuccessful reform,” Alexander Throm (CDU), spokesperson on domestic policy for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, told DPA on Tuesday.

“Dual citizenship must remain the exception and be limited to countries that share our values.”

Throm also criticised the new citizenship law for reducing the amount of time foreigners need to live in the country before naturalising as Germans, describing the new residence requirements as “far too short”.

“After five or even three years, it is not yet possible to determine with certainty whether integration has been successful in the long term,” he stated.

“The recent caliphate demonstrations and the rampant Islamist extremism, often by people with German passports, must be a wake-up call for us all.”

READ ALSO: Which foreign residents are likely to become German after citizenship law change?

Despite vociferous opposition, the alliance between the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party (CSU) was powerless to stop the traffic-light coalition’s citizenship reform passing in both the Bundestag and Bundesrat earlier this year. 

The reform, which permits the holding of multiple passports, lowers residence requirements and removes language hurdles for certain groups, is set to come into force on June 27th. 

But with the CDU and CSU emerging as clear winners in the recent EU parliamentary elections and regularly landing on 30 percent or above in the polls, it’s possible that the party could be on course to re-enter government next year. 

In this situation, the centre-right parties have pledged to try and undo what senior CDU politicians have described as a “dangerous” reform.

“It is not unusual for successive governments to reverse decisions made by the previous government,” Andrea Lindholz, the head of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group said in a recent response to a question

“We will maintain our position on this and will continue to strive for a corresponding change.”

READ ALSO: What are citizenship offices around Germany doing to prepare for the new law?

Whether the CDU and CSU can secure enough votes at both state and federal elections to change the law in the future remains to be seen.

The parties may also have to compromise on their plans with any future coalition partner, such as the Greens, Social Democrats (SPD) or Free Democrats (FDP), all of whom support liberal immigration laws and the holding of multiple nationalities. 

‘Citizenship devaluation law’

The CDU and CSU parties, which form a centre-right alliance nicknamed the Union, have long been opposed to dual nationality in Germany.

During their years of governing in a so-called grand coalition with the centre-right Social Democrats (SPD), the parties had regularly made reforms of citizenship one of their red lines, citing the danger of hostile nations influencing Germany from within. 

In a recent parliamentary speech back in January, Throm had slammed the bill as a “citizenship devaluation law” and accused the government of trying to generate a new electorate to win votes.

CDU politician Alexander Throm speaks in a debate in the German Bundestag

CDU politician Alexander Throm speaks in a debate in the German Bundestag. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christoph Soeder

In comments aimed primarily at Germany’s large Turkish diaspora, the CDU politician claimed that people who had lived in Germany for decades but not taken German citizenship had already chosen their old country over Germany.

The majority of Turks in Germany are also supporters of the authoritarian president Recep Erdogan, he argued.

Responding to the claims, FDP migration expert Ann-Veruschka Jurisch said the opposition was fuelling resentments against migrants by claiming the government was “squandering German citizenship”.

In fact, she argued, the reform has tightened up requirements by ensuring that people who claim benefits and cannot support themselves are unable to become German citizens.

READ ALSO: What you need to know about Germany’s citizenship law reform

In addition, the B1 language requirements have only been softened in a few exceptional cases, for example to honour the lifetime achievements of the guest worker generation who had few opportunities when they arrived, Jurisch said. 

If foreigners have committed crimes, the authorities will be able to investigate whether these involved racist or anti-Semitic motives before citizenship is granted, she added. 

With reporting by DPA

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