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POLITICS

Who are the favourites to become the new French PM?

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne handed in her resignation on Monday, leaving many wondering who will be selected to replace her.

Who are the favourites to become the new French PM?
French former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne (C) flanked by cabinet ministers including French Minister for the Economy and Finances Bruno Le Maire (L) and French Junior Minister for Public Accounts Gabriel Attal (top) at parliament in Paris in October 2022. (Photo by Emmanuel DUNAND / AFP)

Several names have been floating around, as political commentators in France attempt to determine who will take over as PM after Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne’s resignation.

While Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, the only senior minister to be in office since Macron’s election in 2017, is likely to remain in his post, four other names have been listed as favourites to replace PM Borne.

READ MORE: What does a French Prime Minister actually do?

Gabriel Attal

French Education and Youth Minister Gabriel Attal in December 2023 (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Just 34-years-old, Gabriel Attal is France’s current education minister.

In the course of his tenure – which began in July 2023 – Attal has overseen an anti-bullying campaign and the banning of abayas (a loose garment worn by some Muslim women) in French state schools.

Previously, he served as the government spokesperson from 2020 to 2022.

According to recent polling, Attal was a top choice among the French public to replace Borne as PM, with 36 percent of respondents agreeing he would “make a good prime minister”. In comparison, French President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating stood at 27 percent as of January 2024.

On Monday, a source close to the government told AFP that Attal was the favourite to succeed Borne.

If named, he would be France’s youngest ever and first openly gay prime minister.

Sébastien Lecornu

French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu in January 2024. (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP)

37-year-old armed forces minister, Sébastien Lecornu, joined Macron in 2017.

Previously, he served as France’s minister of overseas territories from 2020-2022. He is also a reservist with the rank of colonel in the Gendarmerie Nationale.

As a defector from the centre-right Republicans party, Lecornu would follow in the footsteps of two previous prime ministers — Philippe and Jean Castex — if he were to be named for the position.

Lecornu has become a close adviser to Macron, who has used his experience in local and regional government. 

Macron’s political party lacks a majority in parliament and is already riven by disagreements over the immigration law, which was greatly hardened as a condition for receiving necessary support from The Republicans.

Julien Denormandie

France’s former Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandie in 2022. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Denormandie, aged 43, served as the agriculture minister from 2019 to 2022 and has been with Macron from the start of his presidential campaign. 

Denormandie almost founded a start-up with Macron in 2014 before becoming his deputy chief of staff when Macron was Economy Minister under President Francois Hollande. 

He has been working in the private sector since 2022 at a company called ‘Sweep’, a platform which seeks to reduce carbon emissions for businesses, where he holds the title of “chief impact officer”.

Catherine Colonna

France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna in Beirut in December 2023 (Photo by ANWAR AMRO / AFP)

A seasoned diplomat and France’s current foreign minister, Colonna, aged 67, has been in her position since May 2022. 

Previously, she served as France’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom from 2019 to 2022. She has also been Ambassador to Italy (2014-2017), as well France’s permanent representative to the OECD and UNESCO.

Some have speculated that her tenure as foreign minister may be nearing its end – according to Ouest France (citing Politico), several appointments she had scheduled for this week have been cancelled.

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POLITICS

Macron warns of ‘civil war’ if far right or hard left win election

President Emmanuel Macron warned that the policies of his far-right and hard-left opponents could lead to ‘civil war’, as France prepared for its most divisive election in decades.

Macron warns of ‘civil war’ if far right or hard left win election

French politics were plunged into turmoil when Macron called snap legislative elections after his centrist party was trounced by the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in a European vote earlier this month.

Weekend polls suggested the RN would win 35-36 percent in the first round on Sunday, ahead of a left-wing alliance on 27-29.5 percent and Macron’s centrists in third on 19.5-22 percent.

A second round of voting will follow on July 7th in constituencies where no candidate takes more than 50 percent in the first round.

Speaking on the podcast Generation Do It Yourself, Macron, 46, denounced both the RN as well as the hard-left France Unbowed party.

He said the far-right “divides and pushes towards civil war”, while the hard-left La France Insoumise, which is part of the Nouveau Front Populaire alliance, proposes “a form of communitarianism”, adding that “civil war follows on from that, too”.

Reacting to Macron’s comments, far-right leader Jordan Bardella told French news outlet M6: “A President of the Republic should not say that. I want to re-establish security for all French people.”

Bardella, the RN’s 28-year-old president, earlier Monday said his party was ready to govern as he pledged to curb immigration and tackle cost-of-living issues.

“In three words: we are ready,” Bardella told a news conference as he unveiled the RN’s programme.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

Bardella has urged voters to give the eurosceptic party an outright majority to allow it to implement its anti-immigration, law-and-order programme.

“Seven long years of Macronism has weakened the country,” he said, vowing to boost purchasing power, “restore order” and change the law to make it easier to deport foreigners convicted of crimes.

He reiterated plans to tighten borders and make it harder for children born in France to foreign parents to gain citizenship.

Bardella added that the RN would focus on “realistic” measures to curb inflation, primarily by cutting energy taxes.

He also promised a disciplinary ‘big bang’ in schools, including a ban on mobile phones and trialling the introduction of school uniforms, a proposal previously put forward by Macron.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal of Macron’s Renaissance party poured scorn on the RN’s economic programme, telling Europe 1 radio the country was “headed straight for disaster” in the event of an RN victory.

On Tuesday, Attal will go head-to-head with Bardella and the leftist Manuel Bompard in a TV debate.

On foreign policy, Bardella said the RN opposed sending French troops and long-range missiles to Ukraine – as mooted by Macron – but would continue to provide logistical and material support.

He added that his party, which had close ties to Russia before its invasion of Ukraine, would be “extremely vigilant” in the face of Moscow’s attempts to interfere in French affairs.

Macron insisted that France would continue to support Ukraine over the long term as he met with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

“We will continue to mobilise to respond to Ukraine’s immediate needs,” he said alongside Stoltenberg at the Elysee Palace.

The election is shaping up as a showdown between the RN and the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire, which is dominated by the hard-left La France Insoumise.

Bardella claimed the RN, which mainstream parties have in the past united to block, was now the “patriotic and republican” choice faced with what he alleged was the anti-Semitism of Mélenchon’s party.

La France Insoumise, which opposes Israel’s war in Gaza and refused to label the October 7th Hamas attacks as ‘terrorism’, denies the charges of anti-Semitism.

In calling an election in just three weeks Macron hoped to trip up his opponents and catch them unprepared.

But analysts have warned the move could backfire if the deeply unpopular president is forced to share power with a prime minister from an opposing party.

RN powerhouse Marine Le Pen, who is bidding to succeed Macron as president, has called on him to step aside if he loses control of parliament.

Macron has insisted he will not resign before the end of his second term in 2027 but has vowed to heed voters’ concerns.

Speaking on Monday, Macron once again defended his choice to call snap elections.

“It’s very hard. I’m aware of it, and a lot of people are angry with me,” he said on the podcast. “But I did it because there is nothing greater and fairer in a democracy than trust in the people.”

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