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Niger’s partners fill void left after French exit

The diplomatic isolation of Niger's junta is easing as the West African country's partners start filling the void left by its former ruler France, whose last soldiers left on Friday.

Niger's partners fill void left after French exit
Supporters of Niger's National Council of Safeguard of the Homeland. Photo: AFP.

The international community, and above all Western countries, had unanimously condemned the July 26 military overthrow of elected president
Mohamed Bazoum.

The United States, the European Union and France suspended military cooperation and financial assistance, while the Economic Community of West African States regional bloc imposed heavy sanctions to encourage a return to civilian rule. 

Four months later, Bazoum is still holed up in the presidential palace and the new military leaders have yet to announce a timetable for elections. But ECOWAS has hinted at easing sanctions if the junta agrees to a “short transition.”

On Thursday, Benin President Patrice Talon said he wanted to “quickly” restore relations between the two countries. The United Nations General Assembly meanwhile on Monday accepted the accreditations of a new ambassador sent by Niamey.

Europeans divided

As Niger military leaders ordered French forces to depart, other Western countries have indicated they wish to keep a toehold in the country, above all to counter Russian influence in the region. 

The United States, which has an air base in the north, was the first to soften its position, saying Wednesday it is ready to resume military cooperation on the condition the junta commits to a short transition.

The last French soldiers board a French military plane to leave Niger. Photo: BOUREIMA HAMA/AFP.
 

European countries have started to break ranks with France, which closed its embassy and has refused to recognise the legitimacy of the military leaders.   

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said during a visit to Niamey that Berlin is “interested in a resumption of projects” with Niger’s military.

“France is disengaging from the Sahel, but afterwards we have to agree on some common European approach in this region, and not each man for himself,” said a European diplomat. According to another Western diplomat, the European Union is in an “untenable position”, with member states showing little hurry to agree on a
common policy.

“Out of seven member states who were present in Niger, six, with France being the exemption, want to return at all costs but are waddling in line,” while Nigerien military leaders “have played a clever game,” the diplomat said. 

Niger put pressure on European countries by ending two EU security and defence missions in the country and repealing a law that criminalised trafficking migrants to Europe.

“One should not see these openings as a capitulation to the military authorities,” said Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone, Sahel specialist at the Institute for Security Studies.

“But in a context of shifting strategic alliances in the Sahel, a certain pragmatism is replacing dogmatic stances,” Kone said. 

“Given their tensions with France, which has an important weight in European diplomacy, the strategy of the Nigerien authorities is to develop bilateral cooperation with certain European actors,” he said. 

Moscow’s spectre

European countries “face a dilemma,” said an Italian diplomat. “We have a responsability to stay, because the void would be immediately filled by the Russians.”   

A Russian delegation arrived in Niamey early December to reinforce military cooperation. Moscow is already the preferred ally of military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso — two countries which formed an alliance with Niger in September and contemplate joining into a confederation.

Outside of military affairs, the “Russians cannot help solve all the challenges,” said ISS’s Kone.

An eventual resumption of European development assistance would be a big relief to the Niger regime, which has been forced to slash government spending by 40 percent.

But Niger can count on dividends from an oil pipeline built by China, which is due to be inaugurated in January and will allow the country to export crude oil for the first time, with some 90,000 barrels a day flowing towards Benin.

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POLITICS

Macron warns of ‘civil war’ if far right or hard left win election

President Emmanuel Macron warned that the policies of his far-right and hard-left opponents could lead to ‘civil war’, as France prepared for its most divisive election in decades.

Macron warns of ‘civil war’ if far right or hard left win election

French politics were plunged into turmoil when Macron called snap legislative elections after his centrist party was trounced by the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in a European vote earlier this month.

Weekend polls suggested the RN would win 35-36 percent in the first round on Sunday, ahead of a left-wing alliance on 27-29.5 percent and Macron’s centrists in third on 19.5-22 percent.

A second round of voting will follow on July 7th in constituencies where no candidate takes more than 50 percent in the first round.

Speaking on the podcast Generation Do It Yourself, Macron, 46, denounced both the RN as well as the hard-left France Unbowed party.

He said the far-right “divides and pushes towards civil war”, while the hard-left La France Insoumise, which is part of the Nouveau Front Populaire alliance, proposes “a form of communitarianism”, adding that “civil war follows on from that, too”.

Reacting to Macron’s comments, far-right leader Jordan Bardella told French news outlet M6: “A President of the Republic should not say that. I want to re-establish security for all French people.”

Bardella, the RN’s 28-year-old president, earlier Monday said his party was ready to govern as he pledged to curb immigration and tackle cost-of-living issues.

“In three words: we are ready,” Bardella told a news conference as he unveiled the RN’s programme.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

Bardella has urged voters to give the eurosceptic party an outright majority to allow it to implement its anti-immigration, law-and-order programme.

“Seven long years of Macronism has weakened the country,” he said, vowing to boost purchasing power, “restore order” and change the law to make it easier to deport foreigners convicted of crimes.

He reiterated plans to tighten borders and make it harder for children born in France to foreign parents to gain citizenship.

Bardella added that the RN would focus on “realistic” measures to curb inflation, primarily by cutting energy taxes.

He also promised a disciplinary ‘big bang’ in schools, including a ban on mobile phones and trialling the introduction of school uniforms, a proposal previously put forward by Macron.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal of Macron’s Renaissance party poured scorn on the RN’s economic programme, telling Europe 1 radio the country was “headed straight for disaster” in the event of an RN victory.

On Tuesday, Attal will go head-to-head with Bardella and the leftist Manuel Bompard in a TV debate.

On foreign policy, Bardella said the RN opposed sending French troops and long-range missiles to Ukraine – as mooted by Macron – but would continue to provide logistical and material support.

He added that his party, which had close ties to Russia before its invasion of Ukraine, would be “extremely vigilant” in the face of Moscow’s attempts to interfere in French affairs.

Macron insisted that France would continue to support Ukraine over the long term as he met with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

“We will continue to mobilise to respond to Ukraine’s immediate needs,” he said alongside Stoltenberg at the Elysee Palace.

The election is shaping up as a showdown between the RN and the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire, which is dominated by the hard-left La France Insoumise.

Bardella claimed the RN, which mainstream parties have in the past united to block, was now the “patriotic and republican” choice faced with what he alleged was the anti-Semitism of Mélenchon’s party.

La France Insoumise, which opposes Israel’s war in Gaza and refused to label the October 7th Hamas attacks as ‘terrorism’, denies the charges of anti-Semitism.

In calling an election in just three weeks Macron hoped to trip up his opponents and catch them unprepared.

But analysts have warned the move could backfire if the deeply unpopular president is forced to share power with a prime minister from an opposing party.

RN powerhouse Marine Le Pen, who is bidding to succeed Macron as president, has called on him to step aside if he loses control of parliament.

Macron has insisted he will not resign before the end of his second term in 2027 but has vowed to heed voters’ concerns.

Speaking on Monday, Macron once again defended his choice to call snap elections.

“It’s very hard. I’m aware of it, and a lot of people are angry with me,” he said on the podcast. “But I did it because there is nothing greater and fairer in a democracy than trust in the people.”

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