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OPINION AND ANALYSIS

Spain’s amnesty dilemma: the ‘end of democracy’ or logical next step?

A legal amnesty holds the key to the future of the Spanish government, and you'll be hard pressed to find someone in Spain who doesn't have an opinion about it.

Spain's amnesty dilemma: the 'end of democracy' or logical next step?
Protesters hold Spain's, EU's flags and 'No to amnesty' signs during a right-wing protest against plans to grant Catalan separatists an amnesty in order to form Spain's next government. Photo: Pau BARRENA/AFP.

For some in Spain, caretaker Socialist (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is a shifty, power hungry politician willing to do and say anything to cling onto power. Others go further. Right-wing Partido Popular (PP) leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo describes him as a ‘danger to democracy’, and the Spanish right-wing media machine have long painted the smooth PSOE leader as a dictator seeking to establish ‘Sanchismo’ rule in Spain.

Why do they say this? Because Sánchez has backed a highly controversial legal amnesty for Catalonian separatists who tried to declare independence in 2017. Why would he do this? Most would argue it’s solely because he needs the votes of Catalan parties to be re-elected.

READ ALSO: ‘End of democracy’: Spain’s opposition steps up criticism of amnesty plan

In July’s general election the PP won the most votes but failed to gain an absolute majority, even with the support of far-right party Vox.

After Feijóo failed in his own attempt at forming a government, it fell to Sánchez to try and find votes.

He already has the support of far-left coalition partners Sumar, but needs the support of Junts per Catalunya, led by exiled Carles Puigdemont, and the ERC. They have demanded a legal amnesty in return.

READ ALSO: Who are the ‘thousands’ of people who could benefit from Spain’s amnesty?

The proposed amnesty, let alone the prospect of an amnesty in exchange for votes in order to stay in power, has seriously divided Spanish society. Thousands have taken to the streets in protest. But it is not only Sánchez and the PSOE’s political opponents that oppose it.

Members of the Spanish judiciary have also stepped up their criticism, as well as members of Sánchez’s own PSOE, including regional leaders. The Professional Association of Magistrates, a body that represents judges in Spain, have called the proposed amnesty “the beginning of the end of democracy” that would “destroy the rule of law.”

Plenty of PSOE voters are unsure about it too.

40.4 percent of those who voted for the PSOE in the general election believe that Sánchez should give into the separatists demand and would prefer another election, according to polling data done for El Mundo. In terms of the wider general public, 50.8 percent say that the amnesty is not acceptable “in any case” and 59 percent prefer another election.

In recent weeks, thousands have taken to the streets to protest against the amnesty. The PSOE even decided to suspend all activity at its headquarters following calls for further protests in front of its buildings and “the aggressive spirit of its appeals.”

READ ALSO: Thousands rally in Spain against amnesty for separatists

A risk worth taking?

Sánchez is well known as a smooth political operator and risk taker. It was his gamble, after all, to call the general election the day after his PSOE took a drubbing in regional and local elections and the Spanish right were in the ascendancy. Did it pay off? Arguably, yes. He denied the right a majority, removed the possibility (for now) of the far-right in government, and did this knowing he had more potential coalition partners than the PSOE.

However, although an effective political maneuverer, we must not forget that ultimately any calculation Sánchez makes is a political one. In this sense, some of the criticisms levelled at him by the Spanish right are accurate — he will do what he needs to do to stay in power.

Dozens of right-wing protests have been held across Spain to protest Sánchez’s planned amnesty in return for Puigdemont’s political support. (Photo by OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP)
 

As a recent Financial Times editorial stated: “Sánchez would not go down this path if his job were not on the line.” In the past, the caretaker Prime Minister had described the idea of an amnesty as “unacceptable.”

But to separate the political from the policy for a moment, does that necessarily mean that an amnesty is the wrong thing to do? Some on the Spanish left argue certainly not. Rather, they suggest that an amnesty would not only be the right thing for Sánchez and the PSOE, but for Spain.

When he came out publicly in support of the amnesty for the first time recently, Sánchez claimed it would be done “in the name of Spain, in the interest of Spain, in defence of coexistence among Spaniards.” Some already give Sánchez credit for taking the sting out of the so-called ‘Catalan question’. His (again, very controversial) decision in 2021 to pardon nine officials jailed for their part in the 2017 referendum was similarly described as undemocratic, anti-Spanish, and unconstitutional.

In political terms, however, the move has served to smooth tensions in Catalan society, and more broadly between Catalan separatists and the central government in Madrid. Since then, pro-independence sentiment in Catalonia has waned and the PSOE has performed well, gaining seats and increasing its vote share by 15 percent in the July general election.

For Sánchez supporters, an amnesty would be the next logical step on the road to normalising ties with Catalonia and bringing it back into the political fold. This is in stark contrast to the harsh rhetoric of the Spanish right. Incessantly pitting real ‘Spaniards’ against Catalans and accusing their political leaders of being traitors or criminals will likely do little to calm tensions.

For all the Spanish right’s criticisms (some of which with regards to Sánchez personally are accurate), it has offered little alternative to how to solve the Catalonia question. One must wonder: would another unilateral independence bid be more likely under the conditions of, firstly, an open dialogue with a PSOE-led coalition, or, secondly, a combative right-wing government?

PSOE bigwigs have been in Brussels to negotiate with Puigdemont in recent days. Reports suggest that a deal is near. Sánchez has until November 27th to finalise it and get the votes he needs. If he fails, Spain will likely head to the polls again in the new year.

But do Spaniards really want to have their sixth general election in a decade? Or is the issue of an amnesty really worth being stuck in a political stalemate for another few months? And what would another election realistically solve? Would either party win an absolute majority? It seems unlikely that those PSOE voters sceptical of the amnesty would switch to the PP and risk putting Vox into power.

Whatever happens, one thing is for sure: la amnistía will continue to be controversial and divide Spanish society at a time when the middle ground seems to have evaporated. 

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ROYAL FAMILY

Could Spain ever dethrone King Felipe and become a republic?

After a decade on the Spanish throne, King Felipe VI is steadily growing in popularity. If things were ever to turn sour, could the Spanish public and government actually oust the monarch and turn Spain into a republic?

Could Spain ever dethrone King Felipe and become a republic?

King Felipe VI is set to celebrate a decade on the Spanish throne. He became king on June 19th 2014 following the abdication of his scandal-ridden father, former King Juan Carlos.

This meant that Felipe took over the crown needing to somewhat rehabilitate the public image of la Casa Real. According to polling data released to coincide with his decade as king, it seems he’s done a decent enough job of it so far. In fact, after 10 years on the throne his approval rating has grown.

READ ALSO: What do Spaniards think of their royal family?

Felipe obtained an average score of 6.6 among Spaniards polled, surpassing, for the first time, the 6.5 mark. This is according to a survey carried out by the IMOP Insights Institute for Vanitatis.

In fact, after a decade the majority of Spaniards approve of the King’s performance: 46.4 percent have a positive view of his work, compared to 20.9 percent who are critical or hold a negative view.

Older people generally have more favourable views of Felipe and the monarchy, whereas under 25s are the only group with a negative opinion of him.

In terms of regional breakdown, the most pro-Felipe part of the country was found to be Andalusia and the least, to the surprise of absolutely nobody in Spain, was Catalonia.

Many royal commentators in Spain argue that Felipe, along with his daughter, Princess of Asturias Leonor, have taken big steps to restoring the Spanish crown’s credibility.

That Felipe’s personal approval rating has grown over time is testament to that, and positive ratings, especially after a decade in the public eye, is something most politicians could only dream of.

That is to say, there doesn’t seem to be any danger of Spaniards turning on their king for now. But what if Spanish public opinion changed over time and suddenly Spain did want to become a republic?

Legally, constitutionally speaking, could Spain ever dethrone King Felipe and become a republic?

Spain’s King Felipe VI and Spain’s Queen Letizia attend a ceremony for the Spanish Crown Princess of Asturias. Photo: JAVIER SORIANO/AFP.

The steps to a republic

Even if Spaniards themselves wanted it, transitioning from a constitutional monarchy to a republic involves a lot of steps that make it highly unlikely, perhaps even impossible.

The change would require two-thirds support in both chambers of the Spanish Congress, something that is very unlikely in the current political climate. Such consensus across both houses is very, very rare.

But, theoretically speaking, to get rid of the king the Spanish legislature would first need to amend Article 1 of the título preliminar of the Spanish Constitution, which outlines the state structure and clearly says that: “the form of the Spanish state is a parliamentary monarchy”.

To do this, the government or Congress would have to call for a vote on constitutional reform in the Congress of Deputies and it would have to pass with a qualified majority, that is, with a majority of two thirds or more, which is equivalent to 234 or more deputies.

READ ALSO: How much do Spain’s king and royal family make?

It would then have to be ratified in the Senate with the same qualified majority. Of the 265 senators, 177 would have to be in favour.

But it doesn’t end there. If both chambers agree, Congress would be dissolved, a general election would have to be called, and the voting would have to be repeated among the new deputies.

However, there’s still one final hurdle: a general referendum. The people’s referendum is meant to function as a sort of fail-safe or quality control on the actions of the legislature, especially on such a huge constitutional question.

Javier Tajadura, Professor of Constitutional Law at the University of the Basque Country, told Spanish website Newtral that “the referendum serves as a form of citizen control of what the Cortes want to carry out, and it must be carried out after the votes [in both houses] have been taken.”

If, after all the votes in Congress pass with suitable majorities, the referendum also results in a yes and it is undeniable that Spaniards want to change from monarchy to republic, Spain would become a republic.

Then the debate would shift to whether Spain would need an entirely new constitution, or it would need to make some (pretty huge) changes to the pre-existing constitution of 1978.

So, yes. Spain could, in theory, become a republic. Clearly, the Spanish system has a lot of checks and balances embedded within it that makes moving from a monarchy to a republic constitutionally complicated, politically unlikely, and, in realistic terms, very improbable to the point of being almost impossible.

As Miguel Ángel Cabellos, Professor of Constitutional law at the University of Girona, puts it: “Beyond the fact that it is a change of an essential and core element of the political system, which would also radically divide society, the truth is that from a legal point of view the difficulties are very notable, one could almost say insurmountable in practice.”

READ ALSO: The one thing to know about each of Spain’s ‘crazy’ kings and queens

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