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Mid-term test for Scholz’s coalition at German state polls

Germans cast ballots in two key in two key state elections on Sunday in a test for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's fractious coalition halfway through its term, while the resurgent far right may get another boost.

Published: 8 October 2023 08:55 CEST
Updated: 8 October 2023 17:11 CEST

Bavaria's State Premier Markus Soeder of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) party reacts on stage at the end of CSU's final rally ahead of the Bavaria state elections in Munich, southern Germany, on October 6, 2023. (Photo by CHRISTOF STACHE / AFP)

A surge in immigration and economic woes are top issues for the nearly 14 million people eligible to vote in Bavaria, the country’s biggest state, and in Hesse.

With the voter base making up almost one in five of Germany’s electorate, and both states qualifying as economic heavyweights among the country’s 16 regions, the polls are seen as a crucial indicator of the population’s mood.

Initial indications of how parties have performed are expected around 6:00pm (1600 GMT), with official results later in the evening.

After forming a three-party coalition two years ago, Scholz soon had to contend with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis, which plunged Germany into recession.

Adding to its problems, the chancellor’s coalition — comprising his centre-left SPD, the Greens and the pro-business FDP — has been consumed by bitter infighting on issues ranging from climate laws to spending cuts.

“The parties that form the federal government are in a bad starting position here,” Arndt Leininger, a political expert from the Chemnitz University of Technology, told AFP.

“In both states, all three parties are currently below their results in the last regional elections.”

Not helping the cause of the SPD and its coalition partners, both states are conservative strongholds, with Hesse ruled for 24 years by the main opposition CDU and Bavaria since 1957 by the CSU, headed by Markus Soeder.

Meanwhile the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is forecast to make gains after a recent surge in poll ratings at the national level and a string of local election triumphs.

While the AfD is not expected to enter government in either state — its strongholds are in eastern Germany — further progress would ring alarm bells anew about the party’s growing popularity.

The AfD is traditionally an anti-immigration party but has also focused on attacking the coalition’s climate policies, driven by the Greens, which have proven unpopular in some quarters. Critics say they could unduly burden households.

Coalition tensions

Immigration has emerged as a central theme at the elections as Germany — like elsewhere in Europe — faces a surge of new arrivals, reviving memories of a major influx in 2015.

In a recent survey Bavarians cited it as the most important subject and on Friday state premier Soeder, whose CSU is the sister party of the CDU, renewed calls for a tougher approach.

“The borders must be secured and they must be secured the way that the Bavarian border police do it,” he told broadcaster ZDF, while criticising Scholz’s coalition for “sweeping the issue under the carpet”.

There is little doubt Soeder will extend his party’s decades-old hold on power in the state and he will retain his post.

But there is more at stake for the state premier. If the CSU does not do well enough, his hopes of one day becoming a chancellor candidate may be scuppered.

Ahead of the vote, the state’s ruling coalition was rocked by a scandal when Soeder’s deputy, Hubert Aiwanger, admitted to possessing Nazi pamphlets, found in the schoolbag he used as a teenager in the late 1980s.

Aiwanger, leader of junior coalition partner the Free Voters, managed to hang on to his job and his party actually won more support after he claimed he was victim of a “witch hunt”.

In contrast, the parties from Scholz’s coalition are expected to lose support and the FDP may not even meet the threshold to get into the state parliament.

The SPD has sought to make gains in Hesse by fielding a heavyweight, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser. But the party is also forecast to lose support, while the CDU and its state premier, Boris Rhein, are expected to remain in power.

The biggest losers in Sunday’s elections could be the FDP and Christian Lindner, party chief and finance minister at the national level, which could fuel further coalition tensions, observers say.

Lindner’s “balancing act” between holding his job in the cabinet and leading the FDP could become “increasingly difficult”, daily Tagesspiegel warned.

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Wagenknecht has caused a stir in Germany by calling for negotiations with Putin, an end to the government’s support for Ukraine and a radical crackdown on immigration.

But BSW won an impressive 6.2 percent in June’s European Union elections and looks set to pick up between 15 and 20 percent of the vote on Sunday in Saxony and Thuringia.

At a rally in her hometown of Jena, Wagenknecht spoke passionately about her upbringing in East Germany and “the fear that nuclear bombs could fall here in Europe”.

“Now the fear is back,” she said.

BSW wants to stop weapons deliveries to Ukraine and rejects plans to allow the United States to periodically station long-range missiles in Germany.

Wagenknecht also called for tougher immigration laws, days after a Syrian man allegedly stabbed three people to death in the western city of Solingen.

BSW wants to “reverse” the current government’s immigration policy, she said.

“We cannot welcome the whole world in Germany.”

‘Kingmaker’

Opinion polls for Sunday’s elections have the far-right AfD as the biggest party in Thuringia on around 30 percent, while in Saxony it is running neck-and-neck for first place with the conservative CDU.

The AfD is also leading the polls in a third former East German state, Brandenburg, set to hold an election later in September.

However, the AfD is unlikely to come to power in any of these states, even if it wins, as other parties have ruled out collaborating with it to form a majority.

This could leave the mainstream parties scrambling to form ruling coalitions — and Wagenknecht’s party could end up being the kingmaker.

Leader of left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) Sahra Wagenknecht waves as she arrive for an election campaign rally in Saxony, on August 20, 2024 in Zwickau, eastern Germany, ahead of the state election in Saxony being held on September 1, 2024. Photo by JENS SCHLUETER / AFP

Speaking to AFP, Wagenknecht said the upcoming elections would be “very important” for her party.

“If we make our entrance into each of these regional parliaments with a score in double figures, we will no longer be seen as just a media phenomenon but as a party destined to change our country’s politics,” she said.

Indeed, the “interesting question” about the regional elections will be “how strong the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance will be in the end”, said Marianne Kneuer, a professor of politics at the Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden).

“It is possible that BSW could become an important factor in forming a coalition in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony,” said Kneuer, predicting that the new party could also enter the national parliament for the first time next year.

‘Completely absurd’

Wagenknecht told AFP she accepted that “Putin started a war contrary to international law” but said the “West has its share of responsibility”.

“We could have avoided this conflict if we had taken Russia’s security concerns seriously,” she said.

She rejected allegations of pro-Russian false information being spread by some members of her party, saying it was “shameful to accuse us of that”.

“We are accused of being the voice of Moscow or of representing Russian positions because we are in favour of peace negotiations, which is completely absurd,” she said.

On immigration, Wagenknecht pointed to Denmark’s restrictive policy as an example Germany could follow.

“They have drastically reduced their numbers by signalling to the whole world that there is no hope of staying there if your asylum application is rejected,” she said.

Some have pointed out that BSW’s positions on Ukraine and immigration are broadly similar to those of the AfD, but Wagenknecht has ruled out any kind of collaboration with the far right.

“The AfD has a very radical right-wing faction, especially in the east,” she said. Her party cannot “go into coalition with people who have an ethnic nationalist ideology”.

At the rally in Jena, 83-year-old retired nurse Margit Hoffmann said “the most important thing for me is peace”.

“German public funds should go on other things, not weapons deliveries,” Hoffmann said as she leaned on her walking frame.

By Léa PERNELLE with Céline LE PRIOUX in Berlin