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What are the big issues in Danish politics this autumn?

Denmark’s politicians are back debating and voting on bills in parliament from Tuesday, following the annual official reopening of parliament. Bad polls, international labour and the Quran burning law are among the issues and conflicts facing the coalition government and opposition parties this autumn.

What are the big issues in Danish politics this autumn?
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (right hand side) and Queen Margrethe and Crown Prince Frederik (top centre) can be seen during the opening of parliament on October 3rd 2023. Photo: Ida Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix

Poor government polling 

The government has not fared well in the popularity stakes since it came to office at the end of last year in an unusual coalition constellation involving the two traditional rivals from the centre-left and centre-right, the Social Democrats and the Liberals, and the newly-formed centrist Moderate Party.

The three parties, particularly the two legacy ones have a challenge on hand keeping core voters happy on one side, and compromising on policy to make the coalition work on the other.

For their part, they have argued that a coalition across the centre of politics will bring stability and stop the extremes of the political spectrum from influencing government.

Recent poll results, though, show they are bleeding support. The Social Democrats are suffering the most, with opinion polls putting them down by 7.1 percent on their result at the election last November. The Liberals are down by 4.6 percent and the Moderates by 2 percent.

During the summer, leadership figures from the three parties toured Denmark in a bid to boost connection and support among the public, but instead faced criticism and protests in several places.

Discord over foreign labour 

There is strong evidence of disagreement between the coalition parties over hiring from abroad in response to a longstanding labour shortage.

The Social Democratic employment minister, Ane Halsboe-Jørgensen, said last month that she is not in favour of easing immigration rules to make it easier for companies to recruit foreign labour. That came despite calls from elsewhere in the government to do so.

While Halsboe-Jørgensen said she was against allowing more foreign labour in Denmark, saying it could have a negative impact on society, the leaders of both the Liberals and Moderates have advocated more foreign labour.

Moderate leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen wants work permit rules to be made far simpler and linked to labour market agreements, and has suggested Denmark could make individual deals with non-EU countries on labour, citing Kenya as an example of a potential partner.

The leader of the Liberal party, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, also wants international labour to help ease the shortage of workers and argued that policy leans too much on a fear of being seen as soft on immigration.

With only the Social Democrats clinging to the established hard line on immigration over the labour shortage, it is unclear how the coalition will iron out its differences on this area and come up with a viable solution to a shortage which has seen businesses repeatedly call for government action.

READ ALSO: Can Denmark solve its labour shortage by finding workers in Denmark?

Voting on the Quran burning law

With parliament now back in the chamber, the government’s proposal to change the law to make it illegal to burn the Quran in public will be debated and voted upon.

The proposal was made by the government this summer after repeated Quran burnings in Copenhagen damaged relations with Muslim majority countries.

The government has said it solely wants to restrict Quran burnings at embassies, arguing they risk damaging Denmark’s international standing as well as threaten security, but the move faces criticism in parliament, with opponents saying it is the beginning of a ‘slippery slope’ to further free speech curbs.

On Monday, legal spokesperson Steffen Larsen of the opposition Liberal Alliance party challenged the government not to instruct its lawmakers how to vote on the bill (the equivalent of “whipping” in British politics). Larsen told news wire Ritzau he wants “clear demonstration of who is for and who is against this law”.

The move would potentially raise the chances of the bill failing if there are any members of government parties prepared to vote against their own bill.

READ ALSO: ‘One in two’ in Denmark support ban on Quran burnings

What is going on with the Conservatives? 

The Conservative party, one of the more influential opposition parties is in a muddled state with some doubt about the future of its leader Søren Pape Poulsen.

Poulsen is struggling to hold on to the support of local party figures including municipal councillors and committee chairpersons, newspaper Politiken reported in September after it conducted a survey.

Some 50 of the 143 local Conservative leaders who responded to the anonymous survey said Poulsen was no longer the right leader for the party.

The Conservatives have seen their poll numbers tank from a strong position at the beginning of last year, precipitated in part by Poulsen’s ill-fated decision to run as a candidate for prime minister in the general election.

Poulsen maintains he is still the right person for the job but has conceded in interviews that the last year was a difficult one.

Broadcaster DR writes that there are internal concerns in the Conservatives that he cannot lead the party to a comeback because he is so closely associated with the failed election campaign.

Whether he holds on to his job could depend on the party’s polls in the coming months, but also whether a potential replacement emerges with strong enough backing, according to DR.

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POLITICS

Denmark’s Social Democrats overtaken by left-wing ally in new poll

The Socialist People’s Party (Socialistisk Folkeparti, SF) has become the party with the most support in Denmark for the first time in a new opinion poll.

Denmark’s Social Democrats overtaken by left-wing ally in new poll

A new poll from Voxmeter places SF as Denmark’s largest party, should it be replicated in an election vote, with an 18.8 percent share of the vote.

The Social Democrats, traditionally the largest party on the left, received 18.4 percent in the poll. That represents a large drop in support compared to the 2022 general election, when the Social Democrats gained 27.5 percent and went into coalition government with two parties on the right of centre.

The poll result for SF gives it a share 8.3 percent larger than it gained in 2022 and continues the centre-left group’s recent success after becoming the largest Danish party in the EU parliament in the EU elections this month.

Speaking on EU election night, SF leader Pia Olsen Dyhr said the party’s excellent result could be used as a “catalyst” for a new political landscape in Denmark.

The EU election result can fuel further gains for SF when the next general election comes around, Dyhr said in the midst of her party’s celebrations.

“There’s an alternative to this government. There’s an alternative that wants [more] welfare and [to do more for] the climate and we are willing to deliver this in the EU parliament,” she told broadcaster DR.

“It gives us a tailwind and enthusiasm for the party and it means people will be even more ready for local elections next year and the general election further ahead,” she said.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Is left-wing party’s EU election win good news for foreigners in Denmark?

Another notable observation from the poll is that is the worst for the Social Democrats since the 2022 election and since Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen became the party’s leader in 2015.

In 2013, when former leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt was prime minister, the party’s polls dropped as low as 15.8 percent, but they recovered after Frederiksen took over to win the 2019 election.

The other two parties in the coalition government – the Moderates and Liberals (Venstre) – are also struggling in opinion polls.

The new poll gives the Liberals 9.7 percent – compared to 14.7 percent at the EU election and 23.5 percent in 2019.

For the Moderates, the 6.5 percent polling is better than the 5.9 percent achieved by the party in the EU election, but less than the 9.3 percent it gained in 2023.

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