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Macron to meet UK opposition chief Starmer

French President Emmanuel Macron will host UK Labour party chief Keir Starmer in Paris next week, his office said on Wednesday, in a sign of shifting winds ahead of a likely election next year.

Macron to meet UK opposition chief Starmer
French president Emmanuel Macron (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Starmer’s centre-left party looks like the favourite to become the biggest in the UK parliament at the vote as the Conservative government under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak flounders.

Macron “will meet Mr Keir Starmer on Tuesday September 19 (…) as part of his dialogue with European political actors,” his Elysee Palace office said, confirming reports in British media.

The Labour leader’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Starmer last week reshuffled his top team in what many observers saw as preparation for an election campaign, and has recently made promises not to raise taxes if he secures power.

Rishi Sunak, who only became Conservative prime minister last October, must call an election by the end of January 2025.

The Tory leader is expected to wait for as long as possible in the hope that the country’s grim economic picture will improve, after months of record inflation and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

For now, Labour consistently beats the Conservatives by some distance in polls of voting intentions.

Macron’s office said on Wednesday that he had spoken with Sunak “on the fringes of the G20 summit” in India at the weekend.

The French head of state will also welcome Britain’s King Charles III later this month on a state visit — delayed earlier this year as France was wracked by fierce protests against Macron’s pension reforms.

Britain is a key diplomatic partner for France, with the two nuclear-armed NATO members both holding permanent seats on the UN Security Council and engaging in close military cooperation.

But the two often scuffle over bilateral issues, including migrants crossing into the UK on small boats — arrivals Sunak has vowed to cut off — and fishing rights.

The relationship grew more tense during Britain’s years-long departure from the European Union, which coincided with Macron’s vocally pro-EU first term.

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FRENCH ELECTIONS

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France’s snap elections

The latest polling in France's parliamentary elections shows no party winning an overall majority - so what happens then? Here's a look at the most likely scenarios.

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France's snap elections

French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call snap parliamentary elections has plunged the country into severe political uncertainty.

Polls project that none of the three main political camps – the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) or Macron’s centrists – will win enough seats to get an absolute majority in parliament.

One thing seems certain – it’s likely to be very messy indeed. But what are the most likely outcomes if parliament is truly deadlocked?

Listen to the team from The Local discussing the election latest in the Talking France podcast. Listen here or on the link below

Cohabitation

The far-right Rassemblement National of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and current party leader Jordan Bardella are tipped to be the party with most seats after the second round on July 7th.

If the RN and its allies did secure a majority in the Assemblée Nationale – and current polling suggests this is doubtful – Macron would find himself in a “cohabitation“, in which the president and government are from opposing parties.

Post-war France has experienced three such forced marriages. All were between the left and the centre-right with the last from 1997-2002 between President Jacques Chirac and Socialist premier Lionel Jospin.

Cohabitation: What happens in France’s political ‘forced marriages’?

A cohabition between the Macron and his far-right arch-enemies would likely be a much unhappier affair.

While the far-right would be able to implement part of its domestic programme, on, for example, curtailing immigration, only the president can call a referendum or trigger a vote on constitutional changes.

The president, who usually sets foreign and defence policy, could also find his hands tied if the RN appointed nationalist defence and foreign ministers opposed to his worldview.

Coalition

France has spurned coalitions since the post-war 4th Republic (1946-1958) when the country went through 22 governments in 12 years.

Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to cobble together alliances in parliament on a vote-by-vote basis or to force through legislation without a vote rather than form a pact with another party.

The RN or the left could try do the same if they fall short of a majority but a minority government of the far-right or left would likely fail to pass a vote of no confidence.

Aware of the risks, RN leader Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister unless he wins an outright majority.

Macron’s camp hopes that in the event of a hung parliament it could form a coalition with moderates of the left and right.

As part of its outreach to possible allies, Macron’s party has not entered candidates in 67 constituencies where centre-right or centre-left candidates are running.

But Macron has limited his options by putting the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — the dominant force in the NFP — on a par with the far-right in what he calls the country’s “extremes”. He accuses LFI of anti-Semitism, which it rejects.

Caretaker government

Another option would be for Macron to appoint a technocratic non-partisan government which all parties could get behind.

Camille Bedock, a political scientist at the Emile Durckheim centre in Bordeaux, cites the example of Italy, where respected former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi formed a national unity government in 2021 when Italy was in turmoil. It lasted a year-and-a-half.

Bedock said Macron could also decide to leave the current government headed by his party’s Gabriel Attal in place in a caretaker capacity for a year. He could then call new elections.

This would have the benefit of ensuring continuity through the Olympic Games (July 26th – August 11th) when the country will be under intense global scrutiny.

Whether the far-right or left would support such a move, which would effectively buy Macron time to try turn around his presidency, is highly uncertain.

Macron resigns

The most dramatic scenario would see Macron resign if faced with the prospect of being neutered by the far right or the hard left.

Le Pen, who is expected to try succeed Macron in 2027 presidential polls, has warned that he “will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis”.

READ ALSO Will Macron resign in the event of an election disaster?

Macron has vowed to remain on office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.

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