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Spanish PM woos disappointed voters ahead of snap election

Ahead of a snap election on July 23, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is struggling to win back moderate voters who were put off by controversial positions pushed by his far-left governing partners.

Published: 16 July 2023 10:29 CEST

Spain's Prime Minister and Socialist Party (PSOE) candidate Pedro Sanchez delivers a speech during a campaign meeting in Valencia on July 15th, 2023, ahead of Spain's July 23rd general elections. Photo by: Jose Jordan / AFP

Sanchez’s Socialists have since January 2020 governed in a minority coalition government with Podemos, born out of grassroots anti-austerity “indignados” protests.

Sanchez once said the thought of such a tie-up prevented him from sleeping, but he was forced to agree to it after two inconclusive general elections.

It is Spain’s first coalition government since the country returned to democracy in the 1970s and it has been marked by high-profile feuds between the two parties over contested policies that have alienated more moderate Socialists.

“There has been a transfer of votes from the left to the right,” said Maria Martin of private pollster GAD3.

About ten percent of former Socialist voters who said they voted for Sanchez during the last general election in November 2019 now say they will vote for the main opposition conservative Popular Party (PP), she added.

That is roughly 700,000 voters who Sanchez could lose in the upcoming election which surveys tip the PP will win.

The issue that has contributed the most to this transfer of votes is a loophole in a new sexual violence law adopted last year that saw over 1,000 imprisoned offenders have their sentences reduced, Martin said.

Roughly 100 offenders were eventually released, prompting Sanchez to apologise and his government to amend the law which had been put forward by Podemos.

Dubbed the “only yes means yes law”, it has become an effective weapon with which to bludgeon Sanchez.

‘Monsters on the streets’

“It is a problem which will follow you forever,” PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo said during a TV debate on Monday with Sanchez.

Far-right party Vox has put up a giant billboard in central Madrid depicting a bearded man wearing a black hoodie that covers his eyes, with his hand covering the mouth of a young woman to stifle her scream.

“Sanchez has put hundreds of these monsters on the streets,” reads a message in block letters above the image.

There is also a “confrontation at the centre of the left between the more classical feminism represented by the Socialist party and that defended by Podemos,” said Jose Pablo Ferrandiz of polling firm Ipsos.

At the centre of the row is a law adopted in February and proposed by Podemos which allows anyone 16 and over to change their gender on their ID card on the basis of a simple statement.

The Socialists blocked the draft law for months while they tried in vain to amend it.

Part of the feminist camp – including former Socialist deputy prime minister Carmen Calvo – openly criticised the law on the grounds that it jeopardised the decades-long fight for equality between the sexes.

This view was shared by a part of the electorate, which was uncomfortable with the “very ideological position” defended by Podemos regarding social issues, said Martin.

‘Mistakes’

Podemos has also railed against meat consumption for the good of the planet, which has hurt support for the Socialist in rural areas, she added.

Sanchez tried to distance himself from the far-left party’s position, saying for him “a medium-rare steak is hard to beat”.

The premier is aware of the disaffection of moderate voters and is trying to “mobilise this segment of the Socialist electorate which is close to the centre and is very sizeable,” said Ferrandiz.

In TV and radio interviews, Sanchez has recognised his government has made “mistakes”.

“According to several polls, men, but also women, feel uncomfortable vis-a-vis certain feminist discourses,” Sanchez said during one interview, adding he had friends who felt this way.

Analysts warned criticising his government’s measures was not a winning strategy.

“A prime minister who has governed for years and who questions (the action of the executive) in the middle of an electoral campaign sends a confused message to his electorate,” said Martin.

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INTERVIEW: 'A lot of people think Brexit is done, but it's not for Brits in Europe'

In the early days of 2021, after the United Kingdom had left the EU and completed the final stage of Brexit, many British citizens returned to their home countries in Europe only to face a grilling at the border.

Though the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) technically guaranteed their right to live and work in the countries they’d settled in before Brexit, there was widespread confusion about these fundamental rights and many were treated like new arrivals.

Over time, the chaos at the airports subsided as border officials and airlines were given clearer guidance on the treatment of Brits. But three years later, a number of Brits who live on the continent still face problems when it comes to proving their post-Brexit rights.

This was the reason campaign group British in Europe decided to set up their new EU-funded ICE project. Starting this year in March, it aims to build valuable connections between UK citizens abroad and mentor the next generation of civil rights advocates around the continent. The acronym stands for ‘Inform, Empower, Connect’ and the project’s organisers describe it as “the first project of its kind”.

“It’s a completely innovative project – especially the fact that it’s across so many countries,” Jane Golding, chair of British in Europe and one of the project’s founders, told The Local.

Bringing together groups from 11 EU member states, the project aims to train up volunteers to understand both the Withdrawal Agreement and EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, as well as learning skills like advocacy and communication, using real-life civil rights cases that are referred to British in Europe.

“The ultimate goal is to amplify the messages across the wider group,” said Golding. “You start with the volunteers, they go back to their groups, then the people that we train, they go back and train people. Then they pass on that knowledge to the wider groups, on their Facebook accounts and through social media, and hopefully it all snowballs, not just in their countries but across the EU.”

‘Far-reaching repercussions’

So many years after Brexit, it’s hard to believe that there’s still a need for a project like ICE that empowers Brits to protect their rights. Indeed, the future of groups like British in Europe and regional groups like British in Germany and British in Spain felt uncertain just a year or two ago.

But Golding says there are still serious issues cropping up for Brits in several countries around Europe – they just have a different quality to the problems that arose at the start.

“In some ways it’s needed even more because as we predicted right at the beginning, at the first stage of implementation, you’ve got the more routine cases,” she explained.

“What we’re seeing now is not as many cases, but when the cases come up, they’re complex. They can have such far-reaching repercussions on people’s lives. And of course, memories start to fade. A lot of people think Brexit is already done, but it’s not.”

Volunteers in British in Europe ICE project

The volunteers of the British in Europe ICE project pose for a photo at the kick-off meeting in Brussels on May 21st, 2024. Photo courtesy of Jane Golding

Though the rights set out in the Withdrawal Agreement apply across the continent, different countries have taken different approaches to implementing them.

That means that while in Germany, for example, UK citizens simply had to declare that they lived in the country, people in neighbouring Denmark had to apply for their rights.

This led to a notorious situation in Denmark in which as many as 2,000 Brits were threatened with deportation after not applying in time or completing the right application process. According to Golding, this had a lot to do with the fact that people who arrived in 2020 weren’t given the same information as other UK migrants who arrived before.

In Sweden, meanwhile, the situation is still difficult for many Brits who lived there prior to Brexit.

“There have been issues with an anomalously high numbers of refusals compared to other countries, and they seem to be taking a very strict approach on late applications,” Golding explained.

Portugal has been another difficult case. Although the country opted for a declaratory system where Brits could simply exchange old residence documents for a new ID card after Brexit, reports suggest that the authorities have taken years to issue these cards, leaving many of the some 34,000 Brits in the country in limbo.

“While people are still waiting to have their status confirmed and have their card in their hand, it’s difficult to access a whole range of services, like health services, or applying for jobs or dealing with the authorities, or even going to the bank,” Golding said. “All of these problems just affect people’s lives.”

A French border guard checks a passport at the border

A French border guard checks a passport at the border. Photo by DENIS CHARLET / AFP

There are also concerns about the EU’s new exit and entry system (EES), due to come into force in October, which is based on biometric documentation.

“We still do not have clear data on how many people in declaratory countries like Germany, where it wasn’t compulsory to apply for the card, don’t actually have a card,” Golding said. “How is that going to play out if it’s a document-based digitalised system?”

A lack of support

In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, funding from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) was still available to support NGOs in Europe helping Brits with their migration and civil rights issues. But that temporary funding soon expired, leaving groups like British in Europe largely on their own.

“The whole point is people’s lives change at very different paces,” Golding said. “And now this project is really going to start to pick up some of those cases and report on those issues, which is really crucial and exciting for the precedent that it sets, and it’s very clearly necessary still, because people don’t just sort their lives in the 18 months that the FCDO chose to supply that funding.”

This feeling of being left alone and increasingly isolated from the UK is one that many Brits in Europe have felt in the aftermath of Brexit. But the upcoming UK election on July 4th could be a game-changer.

This time, following a change in the law, Brits who have lived abroad for more than 15 years will be able to vote for the first time.

Polling station in the UK

A polling station in the UK. Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

When it comes to the election, the message from British in Europe is clear: “Make your voice count now, make your vote count, make sure you use it,” Golding said.

With the June 18th registration deadline fast approaching, BiE is advising UK citizens abroad to apply for a proxy vote as soon as possible, rather than relying on a postal vote from abroad. Since the 15-year rule was abolished on January 16th, more than 100,000 British citizens have registered to vote, according to official statistics. It is unclear how many were registered before the change in the law.

With an estimated 5.5 million Brits currently living abroad – 1.3 million of whom are in the EU – this could have a significant impact on the electoral landscape, Golding says. But most significantly, the change is creating a feeling of connection and belonging that wasn’t there before.

Nurturing this sense of belonging is one of the main goals of ICE.

With these bridges being built, British in Europe hopes to create a network of support that spans across borders.

“Now we’ve met. We’re going to meet,” said Golding. “We know we’re going to meet again in Berlin in October and then we’ll meet again in the new year in 2025 as well. It means a huge amount because even British in Europe, our steering team, we’ve only met physically three times.”

This opens up the possibility of people sharing their knowledge from country to country, Golding explained.

“There is crossover and the reassurance of having that EU wide view and knowing that you’re not alone and knowing that in this country, we managed to get this solution,” she said. “And then you can go back and say to the authorities in your country, well, in that country they did that – all of that helps. It’s really good.”

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