COPY LINK

For members

POLITICS

Is Spain’s right wing definitely going to win the general election?

Since the left's drubbing in May's local and regional elections, many have assumed Spain's right will win the general election hands down. But the gap is now narrowing, with Pedro Sánchez the winner so far on the campaign trail. So who will win?

Published: 5 July 2023 17:28 CEST
Updated: 8 July 2023 09:34 CEST

Is Spain's right wing definitely going to win the general election?

Spanish right-wing opposition party Partido Popular (PP) leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo takes part in a press briefing in Madrid, on June 19, 2023. Photo: Thomas COEX/AFP.

It has long been assumed that the Spanish right would win the next general election.

The perceived political wisdom was that the leftist coalition government, led by Prime Minister’s Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE), would be defeated by events beyond its control, controversial laws pushed by its junior coalition partner Podemos and voter fatigue.

After all, just months after coming into government, the Covid-19 pandemic began. Then war in Ukraine sparked an inflationary cost of living crisis just as the country was finally emerging from the coronavirus crisis.

Political commentators in Spain thought Sánchez would be remembered as the pandemic Prime Minister, and that his left-wing coalition would be a one-term government.

Therefore, when the Spanish right made symbolic gains in late-May’s local and regional elections, it seemed to confirm what many (and the polls) had long thought: the general election, something everyone expected at the end of 2023, would be won by the centre-right Partido Popular (PP).

The main political intrigue was whether the PP would win an absolute majority or be forced to rely on far-right Vox to govern. Writing Sánchez off, Spain’s political pundits had looked forward to a relaxing summer preparing for the election later in the year.

So when Sánchez called a snap election for July 23rd, once the country had gotten over the shock (summer elections are rare in Spain) many presumed he was simply getting the inevitable defeat over with sooner rather than later.

But since the pre-campaign (as it’s called in Spain) began, a combination of factors have led to a narrowing in the polls.

Now Sánchez and PSOE don’t seem to be in such a politically precarious position. In fact, many are now quietly wondering: is Spain’s right wing definitely going to win the general election?

Polls narrowing

Recent polling suggests the probable answer is yes – the PP will win – but it’ll be close.

Crucially, there are very few if any pollsters predicting a PP absolute majority, so if the Spanish right is to win it’ll have to be in coalition with the far-right Vox.

One outlying poll, released on July 5th by CIS (Spain’s official polling company), shows the PP slightly edging the vote over PSOE (31.4 percent to 31.2 percent) but also predicts left-wing platform Sumar will pick up between 43 and 50 seats (16.4 percent of the vote) at the expense of Vox (down to 10.6 percent for between 21 and 29 deputies) which would likely give the Spanish left the chance to govern again.

It should be stated that this is just one poll, and most others still maintain a PP lead, albeit a shrinking one. The 40dB survey for national newspaper El País and radio station Cadena SER shows a loss of over 2 percent for the PP vote share (31 percent), and an increase of 1.3 percent for the PSOE (29 percent).

ABC polling puts PP very close to a PP absolute majority, and despite the discrepancies between companies all polling data shows PSOE recovering the gap to varying degrees and there is still two and a half weeks of campaigning to go.

According to the latest polls, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has made gains since embarking on the campaign trail. Photo: John Thys/AFP

PP-Vox pacts

One factor that could explain this polling dip for the Spanish right is the ongoing (and very public) negotiations between PP and Vox at the regional and local level, notably in the regional executives of Extremadura and Murcia.

Put simply, junior coalition partner Unidas Podemos’ electoral collapse and absorption by Sumar meant that the Spanish left got its internal infighting over with before the right did. Now, as the general election campaign really heats up, PP leader Feijóo is bogged down with questions about (and connections to) the far-right and whether he will enter a coalition at the national level.

For many in Spain, particularly those with memories of the dictatorship, this courting of the far-right has likely toxified the PP brand and will make some think twice about enabling a far-right government. This is especially true when much of the PP’s attacks on Sánchez and PSOE are attacks on his coalition partners, and the extremist rhetoric and behaviour of Vox in local and regional governments since being elected won’t help either.

READ ALSO:

Leaders on the campaign

Sánchez

Sánchez seems at home on the campaign. Critics say he is style over substance, but when gearing up for an election this works in his favour and the Prime Minister is a natural on the road, going from TV talkshow to public event, holding campaign rallies, shaking hands, kissing babies. His slick ‘el guapo‘ (the handsome one) brand, his strong public speaking skills, and steadfast defence of his government’s record have all, especially when compared with the rather awkward Feijóo, have likely played a role in PSOE’s poll recovery.

Feijóo

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, on other hand, seems stiff and hasn’t made nearly half as many TV appearances as Sánchez. The gaffe-prone Galician, who has a habit of contradicting himself, particularly when it comes to electoral pacts with Vox, has generally seemed timid on the campaign so far. He is an average public speaker and lacks the charisma or personality to give momentum to the PP campaign, but with his long held poll leads perhaps he feels he doesn’t have to.

Feijóo has also seemed reticent to debate Sánchez, something many expect Sánchez to win convincingly.

‘It’s the economy, stupid’

In the words of Sánchez: ‘la economía va como una moto‘, which literally means the economy is going like a motorbike but can be understood as something along the lines of ‘the economy is on a roll’ or ‘running smoothly’.

And according to the data true – the Spanish economy has repeatedly outperformed expectations, something Sánchez is now beginning to hammer home to the electorate. Despite a pandemic and cost of living crisis, Spain has one of the lowest levels of inflation in Europe and tourism and employment figures are hitting record levels.

A lot of the campaign so far has been anchored on cultural issues (separatism, okupas, LGBT, gender violence, to name just a few) but as a famous American politician strategist once put it: ‘it’s the economy, stupid’, implying that ultimately voters most often vote based on the state of the economy.

Getting positive economic updates during the campaign can’t hurt PSOE’s chances, nor can its record despite difficult conditions.

Congressional arithmetic – who will win?

On balance it seems the most likely outcome is still that the Spanish right will win the election.

A PP absolute majority seems unlikely, so the most plausible outcome is a PP-Vox coalition of some sort. If the complexity of negotiations at the regional level are anything to go by, failure to form a coalition quickly could lead to calls from the left for repeat elections, as there were in 2019.

However, the polls are narrowing, and there is a sense in Spanish political circles that the left (Sánchez and PSOE in particular but also Sumar) is closing the gap and growing in confidence.

Protracted negotiations between PP and Vox at the regional level will further damage the PP brand, as will Vox’s more incendiary rhetoric, and on a personal level Sánchez seems set to easily outperform Feijóo.

If polls continue in the direction they have been going in recent weeks, the Spanish left may well have a chance to form a coalition government with some configuration of PSOE, Sumar and regional parties. Besides Vox, it is unlikely PP will find another coalition partner, so the centre-right party could plausibly win the most votes and still not have the Congressional numbers to form a government.

With two and a half weeks to go, and the most intense period of the campaign still yet to come, the assumption that the Spanish right will win a landslide seems a lot less certain that it was a month ago.

Member comments

Become a Member to leave a comment.

INTERVIEW: 'A lot of people think Brexit is done, but it's not for Brits in Europe'

In the early days of 2021, after the United Kingdom had left the EU and completed the final stage of Brexit, many British citizens returned to their home countries in Europe only to face a grilling at the border.

Though the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) technically guaranteed their right to live and work in the countries they’d settled in before Brexit, there was widespread confusion about these fundamental rights and many were treated like new arrivals.

Over time, the chaos at the airports subsided as border officials and airlines were given clearer guidance on the treatment of Brits. But three years later, a number of Brits who live on the continent still face problems when it comes to proving their post-Brexit rights.

This was the reason campaign group British in Europe decided to set up their new EU-funded ICE project. Starting this year in March, it aims to build valuable connections between UK citizens abroad and mentor the next generation of civil rights advocates around the continent. The acronym stands for ‘Inform, Empower, Connect’ and the project’s organisers describe it as “the first project of its kind”.

“It’s a completely innovative project – especially the fact that it’s across so many countries,” Jane Golding, chair of British in Europe and one of the project’s founders, told The Local.

Bringing together groups from 11 EU member states, the project aims to train up volunteers to understand both the Withdrawal Agreement and EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, as well as learning skills like advocacy and communication, using real-life civil rights cases that are referred to British in Europe.

“The ultimate goal is to amplify the messages across the wider group,” said Golding. “You start with the volunteers, they go back to their groups, then the people that we train, they go back and train people. Then they pass on that knowledge to the wider groups, on their Facebook accounts and through social media, and hopefully it all snowballs, not just in their countries but across the EU.”

‘Far-reaching repercussions’

So many years after Brexit, it’s hard to believe that there’s still a need for a project like ICE that empowers Brits to protect their rights. Indeed, the future of groups like British in Europe and regional groups like British in Germany and British in Spain felt uncertain just a year or two ago.

But Golding says there are still serious issues cropping up for Brits in several countries around Europe – they just have a different quality to the problems that arose at the start.

“In some ways it’s needed even more because as we predicted right at the beginning, at the first stage of implementation, you’ve got the more routine cases,” she explained.

“What we’re seeing now is not as many cases, but when the cases come up, they’re complex. They can have such far-reaching repercussions on people’s lives. And of course, memories start to fade. A lot of people think Brexit is already done, but it’s not.”

Volunteers in British in Europe ICE project

The volunteers of the British in Europe ICE project pose for a photo at the kick-off meeting in Brussels on May 21st, 2024. Photo courtesy of Jane Golding

Though the rights set out in the Withdrawal Agreement apply across the continent, different countries have taken different approaches to implementing them.

That means that while in Germany, for example, UK citizens simply had to declare that they lived in the country, people in neighbouring Denmark had to apply for their rights.

This led to a notorious situation in Denmark in which as many as 2,000 Brits were threatened with deportation after not applying in time or completing the right application process. According to Golding, this had a lot to do with the fact that people who arrived in 2020 weren’t given the same information as other UK migrants who arrived before.

In Sweden, meanwhile, the situation is still difficult for many Brits who lived there prior to Brexit.

“There have been issues with an anomalously high numbers of refusals compared to other countries, and they seem to be taking a very strict approach on late applications,” Golding explained.

Portugal has been another difficult case. Although the country opted for a declaratory system where Brits could simply exchange old residence documents for a new ID card after Brexit, reports suggest that the authorities have taken years to issue these cards, leaving many of the some 34,000 Brits in the country in limbo.

“While people are still waiting to have their status confirmed and have their card in their hand, it’s difficult to access a whole range of services, like health services, or applying for jobs or dealing with the authorities, or even going to the bank,” Golding said. “All of these problems just affect people’s lives.”

A French border guard checks a passport at the border

A French border guard checks a passport at the border. Photo by DENIS CHARLET / AFP

There are also concerns about the EU’s new exit and entry system (EES), due to come into force in October, which is based on biometric documentation.

“We still do not have clear data on how many people in declaratory countries like Germany, where it wasn’t compulsory to apply for the card, don’t actually have a card,” Golding said. “How is that going to play out if it’s a document-based digitalised system?”

A lack of support

In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, funding from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) was still available to support NGOs in Europe helping Brits with their migration and civil rights issues. But that temporary funding soon expired, leaving groups like British in Europe largely on their own.

“The whole point is people’s lives change at very different paces,” Golding said. “And now this project is really going to start to pick up some of those cases and report on those issues, which is really crucial and exciting for the precedent that it sets, and it’s very clearly necessary still, because people don’t just sort their lives in the 18 months that the FCDO chose to supply that funding.”

This feeling of being left alone and increasingly isolated from the UK is one that many Brits in Europe have felt in the aftermath of Brexit. But the upcoming UK election on July 4th could be a game-changer.

This time, following a change in the law, Brits who have lived abroad for more than 15 years will be able to vote for the first time.

Polling station in the UK

A polling station in the UK. Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

When it comes to the election, the message from British in Europe is clear: “Make your voice count now, make your vote count, make sure you use it,” Golding said.

With the June 18th registration deadline fast approaching, BiE is advising UK citizens abroad to apply for a proxy vote as soon as possible, rather than relying on a postal vote from abroad. Since the 15-year rule was abolished on January 16th, more than 100,000 British citizens have registered to vote, according to official statistics. It is unclear how many were registered before the change in the law.

With an estimated 5.5 million Brits currently living abroad – 1.3 million of whom are in the EU – this could have a significant impact on the electoral landscape, Golding says. But most significantly, the change is creating a feeling of connection and belonging that wasn’t there before.

Nurturing this sense of belonging is one of the main goals of ICE.

With these bridges being built, British in Europe hopes to create a network of support that spans across borders.

“Now we’ve met. We’re going to meet,” said Golding. “We know we’re going to meet again in Berlin in October and then we’ll meet again in the new year in 2025 as well. It means a huge amount because even British in Europe, our steering team, we’ve only met physically three times.”

This opens up the possibility of people sharing their knowledge from country to country, Golding explained.

“There is crossover and the reassurance of having that EU wide view and knowing that you’re not alone and knowing that in this country, we managed to get this solution,” she said. “And then you can go back and say to the authorities in your country, well, in that country they did that – all of that helps. It’s really good.”

SHOW COMMENTS

Url copied to clipboard!