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Spain’s regional elections: Who will win in each autonomous community?

With regional elections coming at the end of the month, The Local takes a look at the polls to see who the likely winners will be in each of Spain's regions.

Published: 17 May 2023 16:52 CEST

Spain’s regional elections: Who will win in each autonomous community?

Valencian Socialist Party (PSPV) candidate for regional government presidency Ximo Puig waves during a PSOE campaign meeting. Photo: JOSE JORDAN/AFP.

On Sunday May 28th, local and regional elections will be held throughout most of Spain.

Foreigners cannot vote in regional or national elections, but local elections are the only elections that non-EU foreigners can vote in (and even run in) in Spain.

Regional elections in most autonomous communities will be held on the same day, though not in all of them. Though foreigners don’t have a say in the results, they are important because the decentralised nature of the Spanish political system means that regional governments have a big say in how things are run, and some regional Presidents (take Madrid’s Isabel Díaz Ayuso or head of the Valencian Community, Ximo Puig, for example) can be significant political power brokers on the national level.

Regional parliaments can also be a springboard to national politics in Spain. Leader of the centre-right Partido Popular (PP), Alberto Núñez Feijóo, was Galician President from 2009 to 2022, and Ayuso was pivotal in the downfall of his predecessor Pablo Casado.

This year, there are regional elections across the country except in Andalusia, Catalonia, Galicia, the Basque Country and Castilla y León, where they have already been held in the last couple of years.

The regionals are particularly important this year because Spain will also have a general election by the end of 2023, and a positive (or negative) showing in the regions can help generate or hinder political momentum for national parties gearing up for the campaign trail at the end of the year.

They can also be useful bellwethers to gauge the political temperature of the country at large. But what do the polls say?

2023 polls

Judging by poll data done for Spanish broadcaster RTVE and polls by media outlet La Sexta, we can surmise which party will likely come out on top in each region if an election were held today.

Madrid

With its second election in two years, there seems to be little prospect of a change in regional government in Madrid. Ayuso, a PP member who has been dubbed the ‘Iron Lady of Madrid’ in reference to Margaret Thatcher by the British press, secured a resounding victory in the last Madrid elections in May 2021 and seems set to come close to an overall majority, with 66 seats, increasing her share of the vote by around four percent, from 44.73 percent in 2021 to a projected 47.5 percent based on the average of polls throughout 2023.

Polls predict that PP would still fall two short of the number of seats required for a majority, but with the support of Vox, could govern. Local party Más Madrid looks to be on the verge of bypassing PSOE as the capital city’s second party.

2023 averages: PP (66); Más Madrid (27); PSOE (24); Vox (11); Podemos (7).

Balearics

The polls are tight in the Balearic Islands, with a very close struggle between the right-wing electoral bloc made up of PP and far-right Vox, and the left-wing block made up of the Socialists (PSOE) and various smaller, regional parties.

Judging by an average of poll data put together by RTVE, it is likely PP would be the biggest party but would fall short of a majority, even with the support of Vox.

If there were an election today, PSOE’s Francina Armengol would lose her government, and though PP seems set to be the biggest party on the islands, smaller regional parties such as Més per Mallorca and El Pi could prove to be kingmakers depending on which block they lend their support and votes to.

PP (22); PSOE (17); Vox (6); Podemos (4); Més per Mallorca (4); El Pi (2).

Canary Islands

The average 2023 polls suggest a victory for PSOE in the Canary Islands, but the Socialists would need to seek the support of other parties in order to form a government. According to the average of DatosRTVE surveys, however, the projected PSOE seats along with those of Nueva Canarias, Unidas Podemos and the Agrupación Socialista Gomera (ASG), would not be enough as it was four years ago.

The PP could overtake local party Coalición Canaria as the second biggest party, but would likely be forced to rely on Vox. Like in the Balearics, it is the local party, in this case, the Canarian Coalition, that could tip the regional government right or left.

According to RTVE, PSOE is projected to win 25 seats; PP 18; Coalición Canaria 17.

Valencian Community

According to the polls, PP are on course to be the biggest party in the Valencian Community but would fall short of an absolute majority even with Vox’s seats. This would be viewed as a big loss for the Socialist regional president Ximo Puig, who has been vocal in national politics in recent years and a supporter of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

PP are projected to go from 19 to 35 seats, mainly due to the disappearance of Ciudadanos as a political force. 18 Ciudadanos seats are up for grabs in the Mediterranean coastal region, while Vox are projected to capitalise on this and go from 10 to 14 seats.

The left-wing block, which won 52 seats in the last election, are forecast to drop seats with local party Compromís dropping one and Unidas Podemos falling by three. The polls predict PSOE will win 29 seats; PSOE 29; Compromís 16; Vox 14; and Podemos 5.

Murcia

The current PP president of Murcia, Fernando López Miras, looks like he will win reelection in the southern region, according to an average of polls for DatosRTVE.

With 19 seats, PP is projected to have more than the entire left coalition (15 projected seats for PSOE and 3 for Unidas Podemos).

Despite that, PP will likely continue to be reliant on Vox’s support and votes in the regional assembly in order to get their legislation through. Judging by polling data, Vox could double their number of seats, going from 4 seats to 8, by swallowing up Ciudadanos as in Valencia.

Aragón

In Aragón the polls have been tight all year but PP are forecast to win the most seats while falling short of a majority. The polls predict: PP (25); PSOE (23); Vox (6); regional party Aragón Existe (5); Podemos (3).

Asturias

PSOE President Adrián Barbón seems set to stay in office in Asturias, though his party is projected to lose a seat while PP gains 6. PSOE will likely have enough seats, together with Podemos and Convocatoria por Asturies to govern.

Average polling: PSOE (19); PP (16); Vox (4); Podemos (3).

Cantabria

PP looks like it will win the most votes in Cantabria, but not enough for an overall majority. It would likely have to rely on the support of regional PRC to govern.

2023 averages: PP (13); PRC (9); PSOE (7); Vox (4); Podemos (2).

Castilla-La Mancha

Polls suggest PSOE will win the most votes in Castilla-La Mancha, but will fall short of an overall majority. According to 2023 averages, PP and Vox could between them win enough seats to wrestle the regional assembly away from the Socialists and open the door to PP candidate Paco Núñez.

2023 averages: PSOE (17); PP (13); Vox (3).

Extremadura

PSOE would win the elections in Extremadura if they were held now, but Socialist President Guillermo Fernández Vara would likely lose his absolute majority and depend on Podemos to govern.

This coalition left would garner 34 seats (an absolute majority is 33) and narrowly beat out PP and Vox (31 seats between them).

2023 averages: PSOE (33); PP (25); Vox (6); Podemos (4).

Navarre

Polling throughout 2023 in Navarre has been tight, with several parties polling at similar levels, including several regional groups.

2023 averages: UPN (14); PSOE (10); Geroa Bai (9); EH Buldi (8); PP (4); Vox (2).

La Rioja

La Rioja looks ready for a rightward turn, with PP on the verge of an absolute majority, according to average poll data. Both PSOE and Podemos would lose seats, although PP would likely be forced to rely on Vox.

2023 averages: PP (15); PSOE (13); Vox (2); Podemos (2).

Ceuta

2023 poll averages: PP (9); PSOE (7); Vox (6).

Melilla

2023 poll averages: PP (10); CpM (9); PSOE (3); Vox (3).

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INTERVIEW: 'A lot of people think Brexit is done, but it's not for Brits in Europe'

In the early days of 2021, after the United Kingdom had left the EU and completed the final stage of Brexit, many British citizens returned to their home countries in Europe only to face a grilling at the border.

Though the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) technically guaranteed their right to live and work in the countries they’d settled in before Brexit, there was widespread confusion about these fundamental rights and many were treated like new arrivals.

Over time, the chaos at the airports subsided as border officials and airlines were given clearer guidance on the treatment of Brits. But three years later, a number of Brits who live on the continent still face problems when it comes to proving their post-Brexit rights.

This was the reason campaign group British in Europe decided to set up their new EU-funded ICE project. Starting this year in March, it aims to build valuable connections between UK citizens abroad and mentor the next generation of civil rights advocates around the continent. The acronym stands for ‘Inform, Empower, Connect’ and the project’s organisers describe it as “the first project of its kind”.

“It’s a completely innovative project – especially the fact that it’s across so many countries,” Jane Golding, chair of British in Europe and one of the project’s founders, told The Local.

Bringing together groups from 11 EU member states, the project aims to train up volunteers to understand both the Withdrawal Agreement and EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, as well as learning skills like advocacy and communication, using real-life civil rights cases that are referred to British in Europe.

“The ultimate goal is to amplify the messages across the wider group,” said Golding. “You start with the volunteers, they go back to their groups, then the people that we train, they go back and train people. Then they pass on that knowledge to the wider groups, on their Facebook accounts and through social media, and hopefully it all snowballs, not just in their countries but across the EU.”

‘Far-reaching repercussions’

So many years after Brexit, it’s hard to believe that there’s still a need for a project like ICE that empowers Brits to protect their rights. Indeed, the future of groups like British in Europe and regional groups like British in Germany and British in Spain felt uncertain just a year or two ago.

But Golding says there are still serious issues cropping up for Brits in several countries around Europe – they just have a different quality to the problems that arose at the start.

“In some ways it’s needed even more because as we predicted right at the beginning, at the first stage of implementation, you’ve got the more routine cases,” she explained.

“What we’re seeing now is not as many cases, but when the cases come up, they’re complex. They can have such far-reaching repercussions on people’s lives. And of course, memories start to fade. A lot of people think Brexit is already done, but it’s not.”

Volunteers in British in Europe ICE project

The volunteers of the British in Europe ICE project pose for a photo at the kick-off meeting in Brussels on May 21st, 2024. Photo courtesy of Jane Golding

Though the rights set out in the Withdrawal Agreement apply across the continent, different countries have taken different approaches to implementing them.

That means that while in Germany, for example, UK citizens simply had to declare that they lived in the country, people in neighbouring Denmark had to apply for their rights.

This led to a notorious situation in Denmark in which as many as 2,000 Brits were threatened with deportation after not applying in time or completing the right application process. According to Golding, this had a lot to do with the fact that people who arrived in 2020 weren’t given the same information as other UK migrants who arrived before.

In Sweden, meanwhile, the situation is still difficult for many Brits who lived there prior to Brexit.

“There have been issues with an anomalously high numbers of refusals compared to other countries, and they seem to be taking a very strict approach on late applications,” Golding explained.

Portugal has been another difficult case. Although the country opted for a declaratory system where Brits could simply exchange old residence documents for a new ID card after Brexit, reports suggest that the authorities have taken years to issue these cards, leaving many of the some 34,000 Brits in the country in limbo.

“While people are still waiting to have their status confirmed and have their card in their hand, it’s difficult to access a whole range of services, like health services, or applying for jobs or dealing with the authorities, or even going to the bank,” Golding said. “All of these problems just affect people’s lives.”

A French border guard checks a passport at the border

A French border guard checks a passport at the border. Photo by DENIS CHARLET / AFP

There are also concerns about the EU’s new exit and entry system (EES), due to come into force in October, which is based on biometric documentation.

“We still do not have clear data on how many people in declaratory countries like Germany, where it wasn’t compulsory to apply for the card, don’t actually have a card,” Golding said. “How is that going to play out if it’s a document-based digitalised system?”

A lack of support

In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, funding from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) was still available to support NGOs in Europe helping Brits with their migration and civil rights issues. But that temporary funding soon expired, leaving groups like British in Europe largely on their own.

“The whole point is people’s lives change at very different paces,” Golding said. “And now this project is really going to start to pick up some of those cases and report on those issues, which is really crucial and exciting for the precedent that it sets, and it’s very clearly necessary still, because people don’t just sort their lives in the 18 months that the FCDO chose to supply that funding.”

This feeling of being left alone and increasingly isolated from the UK is one that many Brits in Europe have felt in the aftermath of Brexit. But the upcoming UK election on July 4th could be a game-changer.

This time, following a change in the law, Brits who have lived abroad for more than 15 years will be able to vote for the first time.

Polling station in the UK

A polling station in the UK. Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

When it comes to the election, the message from British in Europe is clear: “Make your voice count now, make your vote count, make sure you use it,” Golding said.

With the June 18th registration deadline fast approaching, BiE is advising UK citizens abroad to apply for a proxy vote as soon as possible, rather than relying on a postal vote from abroad. Since the 15-year rule was abolished on January 16th, more than 100,000 British citizens have registered to vote, according to official statistics. It is unclear how many were registered before the change in the law.

With an estimated 5.5 million Brits currently living abroad – 1.3 million of whom are in the EU – this could have a significant impact on the electoral landscape, Golding says. But most significantly, the change is creating a feeling of connection and belonging that wasn’t there before.

Nurturing this sense of belonging is one of the main goals of ICE.

With these bridges being built, British in Europe hopes to create a network of support that spans across borders.

“Now we’ve met. We’re going to meet,” said Golding. “We know we’re going to meet again in Berlin in October and then we’ll meet again in the new year in 2025 as well. It means a huge amount because even British in Europe, our steering team, we’ve only met physically three times.”

This opens up the possibility of people sharing their knowledge from country to country, Golding explained.

“There is crossover and the reassurance of having that EU wide view and knowing that you’re not alone and knowing that in this country, we managed to get this solution,” she said. “And then you can go back and say to the authorities in your country, well, in that country they did that – all of that helps. It’s really good.”

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