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POLITICS

Spain’s regional elections: Who will win in each autonomous community?

With regional elections coming at the end of the month, The Local takes a look at the polls to see who the likely winners will be in each of Spain's regions.

Published: 17 May 2023 16:52 CEST
Spain’s regional elections: Who will win in each autonomous community?
Valencian Socialist Party (PSPV) candidate for regional government presidency Ximo Puig waves during a PSOE campaign meeting. Photo: JOSE JORDAN/AFP.

On Sunday May 28th, local and regional elections will be held throughout most of Spain. 

Foreigners cannot vote in regional or national elections, but local elections are the only elections that non-EU foreigners can vote in (and even run in) in Spain.

Regional elections in most autonomous communities will be held on the same day, though not in all of them. Though foreigners don’t have a say in the results, they are important because the decentralised nature of the Spanish political system means that regional governments have a big say in how things are run, and some regional Presidents (take Madrid’s Isabel Díaz Ayuso or head of the Valencian Community, Ximo Puig, for example) can be significant political power brokers on the national level.

READ ALSO: How to vote by post in Spain’s regional and local elections

Regional parliaments can also be a springboard to national politics in Spain. Leader of the centre-right Partido Popular (PP), Alberto Núñez Feijóo, was Galician President from 2009 to 2022, and Ayuso was pivotal in the downfall of his predecessor Pablo Casado.

This year, there are regional elections across the country except in Andalusia, Catalonia, Galicia, the Basque Country and Castilla y León, where they have already been held in the last couple of years.

The regionals are particularly important this year because Spain will also have a general election by the end of 2023, and a positive (or negative) showing in the regions can help generate or hinder political momentum for national parties gearing up for the campaign trail at the end of the year.

They can also be useful bellwethers to gauge the political temperature of the country at large. But what do the polls say?

2023 polls

Judging by poll data done for Spanish broadcaster RTVE and polls by media outlet La Sexta, we can surmise which party will likely come out on top in each region if an election were held today. 

Madrid

With its second election in two years, there seems to be little prospect of a change in regional government in Madrid. Ayuso, a PP member who has been dubbed the ‘Iron Lady of Madrid’ in reference to Margaret Thatcher by the British press, secured a resounding victory in the last Madrid elections in May 2021 and seems set to come close to an overall majority, with 66 seats, increasing her share of the vote by around four percent, from 44.73 percent in 2021 to a projected 47.5 percent based on the average of polls throughout 2023.

Polls predict that PP would still fall two short of the number of seats required for a majority, but with the support of Vox, could govern. Local party Más Madrid looks to be on the verge of bypassing PSOE as the capital city’s second party.

2023 averages: PP (66); Más Madrid (27); PSOE (24); Vox (11); Podemos (7).

Balearics

The polls are tight in the Balearic Islands, with a very close struggle between the right-wing electoral bloc made up of PP and far-right Vox, and the left-wing block made up of the Socialists (PSOE) and various smaller, regional parties.

Judging by an average of poll data put together by RTVE, it is likely PP would be the biggest party but would fall short of a majority, even with the support of Vox.

If there were an election today, PSOE’s Francina Armengol would lose her government, and though PP seems set to be the biggest party on the islands, smaller regional parties such as Més per Mallorca and El Pi could prove to be kingmakers depending on which block they lend their support and votes to.

PP (22); PSOE (17); Vox (6); Podemos (4); Més per Mallorca (4); El Pi (2).

Canary Islands

The average 2023 polls suggest a victory for PSOE in the Canary Islands, but the Socialists would need to seek the support of other parties in order to form a government. According to the average of DatosRTVE surveys, however, the projected PSOE seats along with those of Nueva Canarias, Unidas Podemos and the Agrupación Socialista Gomera (ASG), would not be enough as it was four years ago.

The PP could overtake local party Coalición Canaria as the second biggest party, but would likely be forced to rely on Vox. Like in the Balearics, it is the local party, in this case, the Canarian Coalition, that could tip the regional government right or left.

According to RTVE, PSOE is projected to win 25 seats; PP 18; Coalición Canaria 17.

Valencian Community

According to the polls, PP are on course to be the biggest party in the Valencian Community but would fall short of an absolute majority even with Vox’s seats. This would be viewed as a big loss for the Socialist regional president Ximo Puig, who has been vocal in national politics in recent years and a supporter of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

READ ALSO: Spain’s regional elections: What will happen in the Valencia region?

PP are projected to go from 19 to 35 seats, mainly due to the disappearance of Ciudadanos as a political force. 18 Ciudadanos seats are up for grabs in the Mediterranean coastal region, while Vox are projected to capitalise on this and go from 10 to 14 seats.

The left-wing block, which won 52 seats in the last election, are forecast to drop seats with local party Compromís dropping one and Unidas Podemos falling by three. The polls predict PSOE will win 29 seats; PSOE 29; Compromís 16; Vox 14; and Podemos 5.

Murcia

The current PP president of Murcia, Fernando López Miras, looks like he will win reelection in the southern region, according to an average of polls for DatosRTVE.

With 19 seats, PP is projected to have more than the entire left coalition (15 projected seats for PSOE and 3 for Unidas Podemos).

Despite that, PP will likely continue to be reliant on Vox’s support and votes in the regional assembly in order to get their legislation through. Judging by polling data, Vox could double their number of seats, going from 4 seats to 8, by swallowing up Ciudadanos as in Valencia.

Aragón

In Aragón the polls have been tight all year but PP are forecast to win the most seats while falling short of a majority. The polls predict: PP (25); PSOE (23); Vox (6); regional party Aragón Existe (5); Podemos (3).

Asturias

PSOE President Adrián Barbón seems set to stay in office in Asturias, though his party is projected to lose a seat while PP gains 6. PSOE will likely have enough seats, together with Podemos and Convocatoria por Asturies to govern.

Average polling: PSOE (19); PP (16); Vox (4); Podemos (3).

Cantabria

PP looks like it will win the most votes in Cantabria, but not enough for an overall majority. It would likely have to rely on the support of regional PRC to govern.

2023 averages: PP (13); PRC (9); PSOE (7); Vox (4); Podemos (2).

Castilla-La Mancha

Polls suggest PSOE will win the most votes in Castilla-La Mancha, but will fall short of an overall majority. According to 2023 averages, PP and Vox could between them win enough seats to wrestle the regional assembly away from the Socialists and open the door to PP candidate Paco Núñez.

2023 averages: PSOE (17); PP (13); Vox (3).

Extremadura

PSOE would win the elections in Extremadura if they were held now, but Socialist President Guillermo Fernández Vara would likely lose his absolute majority and depend on Podemos to govern.

This coalition left would garner 34 seats (an absolute majority is 33) and narrowly beat out PP and Vox (31 seats between them). 

2023 averages: PSOE (33); PP (25); Vox (6); Podemos (4).

Navarre

Polling throughout 2023 in Navarre has been tight, with several parties polling at similar levels, including several regional groups.

2023 averages: UPN (14); PSOE (10); Geroa Bai (9); EH Buldi (8); PP (4); Vox (2).

READ ALSO: Shock as 44 convicted ETA terrorists to run in elections in Spain’s Basque Country

La Rioja

La Rioja looks ready for a rightward turn, with PP on the verge of an absolute majority, according to average poll data. Both PSOE and Podemos would lose seats, although PP would likely be forced to rely on Vox.

2023 averages: PP (15); PSOE (13); Vox (2); Podemos (2).

Ceuta

2023 poll averages: PP (9); PSOE (7); Vox (6).

Melilla

2023 poll averages: PP (10); CpM (9); PSOE (3); Vox (3).

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POLITICS

The plan for Catalonia to handle its own finances separately from Spain

Catalan separatists are pushing for 'financiación singular' to gain greater fiscal autonomy from the Spanish state, but the proposals are tied up with politics at the national level.

Published: 24 June 2024 14:06 CEST
The plan for Catalonia to handle its own finances separately from Spain

The recent regional elections in Catalonia in May were hailed by political pundits as the end of the procés and turning the page on the Catalan question. The evidence for this was that separatist parties lost their majority in the regional legislature for the first time in over a decade and that the Socialists (PSOE) won the most votes overall.

However, since then things have been far from simple. The PSOE candidate, Salvador Illa, is yet to secure an investiture vote and the political horse trading is ongoing with ramifications for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s fragile majority at the national level.

The controversial amnesty law pushed by Sánchez’s government then got clogged up in the courts, despite being approved in the Congress, and Catalan separatist parties managed to cling onto the role of speaker in the regional parliament. Catalan lawmakers elected Josep Rull, a member of the hardline separatist Junts per Catalunya, which is led by exiled former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont.

READ ALSO: Separatists retain speaker in new Catalan parliament

The important context to understand here is that the Sánchez government is dependent on separatist parties, including Junts and the more moderate Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC). After inconclusive general election results last summer, Sánchez essentially made a deal with the Catalans in exchange for their votes to maintain his position in La Moncloa.

Catalan finances and national politics

Now separatist parties, particularly ERC, are leveraging this support in order to gain concessions from the national government. The main way they’re doing this is through a demand for financiación singular — ‘singular financing’. That is to say, how Catalonia raises and uses taxes, and whether or not it should be allowed greater fiscal autonomy closer to something like the Basque model.

ERC secretary general Marta Rovira has said in the Spanish press that greater fiscal autonomy “is the minimum that can be demanded,” and alluded to the conditionality of their support for Sánchez: “The Socialists must know that if Pedro Sánchez is not able to move on the singular financing… it will be very difficult for ERC to support him. Salvador Illa must bear this in mind.”

la financiación ‘singular’

But what is singular financing? Former president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, described the plan as “full fiscal sovereignty” in the election campaign, and essentially what the ERC is proposing is a bespoke fiscal arrangement for Catalonia that allows the Generalitat to collect (and keep) more of its taxes.

This would be a step, albeit financial rather than constitutional, towards greater regional autonomy for Catalonia and likely viewed as a political victory for separatists.

For critics of Sánchez, it would be more evidence of his capitulation to Catalans.

Singular finance is an idea inspired by the so-called “Basque quota”. This is basically a fiscal arrangement that allows the Basque government control of most of its taxes but means it must also contribute a set ‘quota’ to the Spanish government.

READ ALSO: Spain’s contested Catalan amnesty bill comes into force

In Catalonia, the long-term aim would be something similar: for the Generalitat to collect all (or more than it currently does, at least) of the taxes paid in Catalonia and then transfer to the Spanish state an agreed portion of that.

In terms of cash, this would mean that the Generalitat would collect billions more in tax (some estimates put it as high as €52 billion overall) and more than double the €25.6 billion it received in 2021 under the current model.

Proponents of the singular finance model also suggest that giving the Generalitat greater fiscal autonomy would do something to redress the so-called ‘Catalan deficit’, the difference between what the Catalan economy contributes to the Spanish state coffers and what it receives in return investment. Generalitat estimates for 2021 put this figure at over €20 billion in 2021.

Therefore, the demand is not only political but economic. The ERC claims that changing the fiscal model would do something to resolve what it calls the “chronic underfunding” of the region.

Negotiations for a singular financing model, which will be tied up in the investiture negotiations for Illa, which are themselves tied up in the fragile arrangement at the national level, will likely continue for many weeks.

If no candidate has won an investiture vote in the regional parliament by August 25th, further elections will be called.

READ ALSO: Which Catalans want independence from Spain?

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