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OPINION AND ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS: Macron secures pension victory but gloom deepens in France

President Emmanuel Macron looks to have won his battle to push through a widely unpopular pension reform, but many experts and historians believe he has now deepened the gloom enveloping French democracy.

French President Emmanuel Macron prior to speech
President Emmanuel Macron looks to have won his battle to push through a widely unpopular pension reform, but the move may have triggered a democratic crisis. Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP

France’s constitutional court approved the core parts of Macron’s pension reform on Friday, paving the way for the centrist head of state to sign into law a hike in the retirement age to 64 from its current level of 62.

But the manner in which the legislation has been passed – in the face of opposition from two out of three voters, trade unions, and a majority of MPs in the National Assembly – has dismayed even previously sympathetic observers.

Pierre Rosanvallon, a highly respected sociologist and historian, issued a striking warning in early April that Macron needed to restore the legitimacy of his presidential office in the eyes of voters.

“Without this, the time of revolutions could come back, or else there will be an accumulation of toxic disaffection which will open the way for far-right populism,” the centre-left thinker told Liberation newspaper.

READ ALSO: Macron signs French pension reform into law despite fierce protests

Political historian Jean Garrigues also wrote that it was “all of our institutional foundations, all of our political figures which are discredited” by the way the reform had been passed.

“The link between our citizens and their national representatives has been stretched further in this crisis, as it was during the Yellow Vests,” Garrigues wrote in Le Monde newspaper, referring to fierce anti-Macron protests in 2018.

Clash between police and demonstrators in France

Protests in France look set to continue after President Macron signed his controversial pension reform into law on Saturday. Photo by Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP

Criticism has focused in particular on how the president’s minority government rammed the legislation through parliament on March 16 without a vote.

The move – legal but controversial – came after other constitutional measures were used to keep parliamentary debate to a minimum, deepening the sense of outrage felt by protesters who have taken to the streets almost every week since January.

The sometimes violent protests peaked at 1.28 million people on March 7th, according to official statistics, the biggest in a generation.

“This protest movement will leave a mark in the history of our country, through its size and the new people who have joined in,” the leader of the moderate CFDT union, Laurent Berger, told reporters as he marched – for the 12th time since January – on Thursday.

He repeated his belief that the country faced a “democratic crisis.”

“No crisis”

In his only media interview on the subject of pensions since his election to a second term last April, Macron conceded that he and his government had failed to win the battle for public opinion.

Asked if he had any regrets, he told the TF1 channel: “If I have any, it’s that we haven’t always succeeded in convincing people of the necessity of this reform, which I don’t take pleasure in.”

But he remained convinced that it was “necessary” and for the greater good of the country – to avoid pension deficits forecast to hit 13.5 billion euros by 2030, and to bring the country into line with its EU neighbours.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Why Friday’s court ruling could prolong French pensions dispute for another 15 months

Furthermore, he saw it as legitimate given that he had been re-elected on a platform that included the pension reform and a pledge to make France “work more” to pay for one of the most expensive welfare systems in the world.

Some allies had warned him beforehand, however, about the risks of hiking the retirement age in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis and so soon after Covid-19.

French President Emmanuel Macron speaking in China

Macron shot back at critics during his visit to China last week, saying that his pension reform had been “proposed democratically”. Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP

Speaking in China last week, he shot back at critics.

“You can’t call it a democratic crisis when an elected president […] seeks to implement a policy that has been proposed democratically,” he told reporters in off-the-record remarks that were published in the French media.

“If people wanted to retire at 60, then they shouldn’t have elected me as president.”

A new republic?

The talk of crisis and revolution comes amid gathering evidence that confidence in French democracy is waning.

A widely watched annual poll published by the Cevipof political institute at Sciences Po university in Paris showed in February that two out of three people (64 percent) thought French democracy was functioning “not well”.

An even higher proportion had negative feelings about politicians (72 percent) and still more (82 percent) thought politicians did not share their priorities.

The pensions reform has also revived debate about whether the current constitution, the foundation of the modern Fifth Republic, is fit for purpose.

READ ALSO: OPINION: In France even riots used to have rules, now political violence is spiralling

Approved during a national emergency and shaped by war-time hero Charles de Gaulle, it created an executive presidency with powers superior to any other western European chancellory or prime minister’s office.

“This constitution which hands extremely brutal, authoritarian powers to the governing power is crashing into a society that no longer tolerates decisions seen as too top-down,” said constitutional expert Bastian Francois.

“What was acceptable in the 60s, even in the 80s, is less and less acceptable today,” the historian at the Sorbonne university in Paris told AFP.

By AFP’s Adam Plowright

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FRENCH ELECTIONS

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France’s snap elections

The latest polling in France's parliamentary elections shows no party winning an overall majority - so what happens then? Here's a look at the most likely scenarios.

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France's snap elections

French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call snap parliamentary elections has plunged the country into severe political uncertainty.

Polls project that none of the three main political camps – the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) or Macron’s centrists – will win enough seats to get an absolute majority in parliament.

One thing seems certain – it’s likely to be very messy indeed. But what are the most likely outcomes if parliament is truly deadlocked?

Listen to the team from The Local discussing the election latest in the Talking France podcast. Listen here or on the link below

Cohabitation

The far-right Rassemblement National of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and current party leader Jordan Bardella are tipped to be the party with most seats after the second round on July 7th.

If the RN and its allies did secure a majority in the Assemblée Nationale – and current polling suggests this is doubtful – Macron would find himself in a “cohabitation“, in which the president and government are from opposing parties.

Post-war France has experienced three such forced marriages. All were between the left and the centre-right with the last from 1997-2002 between President Jacques Chirac and Socialist premier Lionel Jospin.

Cohabitation: What happens in France’s political ‘forced marriages’?

A cohabition between the Macron and his far-right arch-enemies would likely be a much unhappier affair.

While the far-right would be able to implement part of its domestic programme, on, for example, curtailing immigration, only the president can call a referendum or trigger a vote on constitutional changes.

The president, who usually sets foreign and defence policy, could also find his hands tied if the RN appointed nationalist defence and foreign ministers opposed to his worldview.

Coalition

France has spurned coalitions since the post-war 4th Republic (1946-1958) when the country went through 22 governments in 12 years.

Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to cobble together alliances in parliament on a vote-by-vote basis or to force through legislation without a vote rather than form a pact with another party.

The RN or the left could try do the same if they fall short of a majority but a minority government of the far-right or left would likely fail to pass a vote of no confidence.

Aware of the risks, RN leader Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister unless he wins an outright majority.

Macron’s camp hopes that in the event of a hung parliament it could form a coalition with moderates of the left and right.

As part of its outreach to possible allies, Macron’s party has not entered candidates in 67 constituencies where centre-right or centre-left candidates are running.

But Macron has limited his options by putting the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — the dominant force in the NFP — on a par with the far-right in what he calls the country’s “extremes”. He accuses LFI of anti-Semitism, which it rejects.

Caretaker government

Another option would be for Macron to appoint a technocratic non-partisan government which all parties could get behind.

Camille Bedock, a political scientist at the Emile Durckheim centre in Bordeaux, cites the example of Italy, where respected former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi formed a national unity government in 2021 when Italy was in turmoil. It lasted a year-and-a-half.

Bedock said Macron could also decide to leave the current government headed by his party’s Gabriel Attal in place in a caretaker capacity for a year. He could then call new elections.

This would have the benefit of ensuring continuity through the Olympic Games (July 26th – August 11th) when the country will be under intense global scrutiny.

Whether the far-right or left would support such a move, which would effectively buy Macron time to try turn around his presidency, is highly uncertain.

Macron resigns

The most dramatic scenario would see Macron resign if faced with the prospect of being neutered by the far right or the hard left.

Le Pen, who is expected to try succeed Macron in 2027 presidential polls, has warned that he “will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis”.

READ ALSO Will Macron resign in the event of an election disaster?

Macron has vowed to remain on office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.

You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive by email our bi-weekly election breakdown

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