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LIVING IN FRANCE

MAP: Which areas of France are set to see a population fall by 2070?

Forecasts predict that the French population in 2070 will be about the same size it is today - but the overall population will be considerably older and have seen a significant geographical shift.

Published: 28 November 2022 11:53 CET
MAP: Which areas of France are set to see a population fall by 2070?
France's population is set to see a significant geographical shift in the next 50 years. Image: AFP/Datawrapper

National statistics agency Insee estimates that, by 2050, the population of France will peak at around 70 million. Twenty years later, it is expected to be about 68.1 million, compared to 67.8 million at the start of 2022, held up by migration as birth rates continue to fall.

In common with most European countries, the birth rate in France has been falling steadily for years.

By 2070, some 20 million residents will be aged 65 or more – that’s 29 percent of the forecast population, compared to 20 percent currently. 

And where those people live will also have changed quite significantly over the next 50 years, with the map showing a marked drift to the west. 

Insee’s projections, based on current population trends, show that demographic decline has already begun in Normandy, the Grand Est region in eastern France and Hauts-de-France in the north. 

MAP Parts of France set to be underwater as sea levels rise

Areas where the population is expected to fall

If current trends continue, the population of Normandy will fall by 460,000 people by 2070 from its 2018 figure, an average decline of 8,850 inhabitants each year over the period. In 2070, the region is forecast to be home to 2.9 million people.

The eastern Grand Est will see a decline of about 750,000 inhabitants, falling to 4.8 million by 2070. All départments, apart from the Bas-Rhin (which houses Strasbourg) will see population falls.

Meanwhile, population numbers in Hauts-de-France will fall by about 600,000, compared to 2018 figures, to 5.4 million. Currently the third most-populous region in France, it will fall to fifth in 48 years.

In decline since 2015, Centre-Val de Loire is expected to see a fall of 162,000 people by 2070, with the population dropping to 2.41 million, Insee said.

Bourgogne Franche-Comté in the east will see a 14 percent drop in population (about 200,000 people) to about 2.4 million to become one of the least-populated regions in France.

Areas with rising population

Population growth, the forecast suggests, will continue slowly until 2050 everywhere else in the country - but between 2050 and 2070, only Occitanie in the south and Pays-de-la-Loire in the west will see population numbers continue to rise. 

Occitanie’s population will jump by 824,000 by 2070 to about 6.7 million - a figure mostly driven by migration - while Pays de la Loire will see an increase of 430,000, reaching 4.2 million.

The south-west region of Nouvelle Aquitaine will see an increase of 420,000 people to reach 6.2 million by 2070, compared to 2018’s figures. But the region will also bear the brunt of the ageing population figures. In five départments, including Dordogne and Charente-Maritime, over 65s will make up 40 percent of the local population.

An additional 32,400 people are expected to live on Corsica in 48 years, taking the total number of people on the island to 371,000.

Brittany, too, will see an increase in population of 283,000 to reach 3.6 million by 2070, as will Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes - which will see an increase of 283,000 by 2070, reaching a total of 8.65 million residents.

What about Paris and the Riviera?

The greater Paris Île-de-France region is predicted to see a rise and then a fall.

Île-de-France is expected to be home to about 12.53 million people by 2070 - an increase of 300,000 compared to 2018 figures, but down on the peak of about 12.75 million in 2050. It will also be the ‘youngest’ region of France, with just 22 percent of the population aged 65 or over, compared to an expected national average of 29 percent.

A similar rise and fall will occur in the southern Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region - which includes the Riviera and France's second-biggest city of Marseille - which will see the population rise to 5.23 million in 2050 before falling back to 5.17 million by 2070.

Predicted population in 2070 

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes - 3.6 million people, a 283,000 increase on 2018

Bourgogne Franche-Comté - 2.4 million, 200,000 decrease

Brittany - 3.6 million, 283,000 increase

Centre-Val de Loire - 2.41 million, 162,000 decrease

Corsica: - 371,000, 32,400 increase

Grand Est - 4.8 million, 750,000 decrease

Hauts-de-France - 5.4 million, 600,000 decrease

Ile-de-France - 12.53 million, 300,000 increase

Normandy - 2.9 million, 460,000 decrease

Occitanie - 6.7 million, 824,000 increase

Pays de la Loire - 4.2 million, 430,000 increase

Nouvelle Aquitaine - 6.2 million, 420,000 increase

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur - 5.17 million, 120,000 increase 

Member comments

  1. These images show an extrapolation of past trends. However, the effects of climate change don’t seem to be included. The heat waves of the last few Summers have made the south almost unlivable, and add to that the drought that continues to make life very difficult for animals and humans. That will see many people leave the hot and dry south to move more northwardly, where house prices may be lower only for a short time.

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LIVING IN FRANCE

Why you might get a letter about French benefits

France is introducing stricter residency requirements for certain benefits, including those that foreigners in France can qualify for, and has begun sending letters out to recipients.

Published: 30 April 2024 14:07 CEST
Why you might get a letter about French benefits

In April, the French government passed a decree that will tighten up residency requirements for different types of benefits, including the old-age top-up benefit.

Previously, the rule for most benefits was residency in France for at least six months of the previous year to qualify, though some required eight months and others, like the RSA (a top-up for people with little to no income) requires nine months’ residency per year.

However, the government announced in 2023 its intention to increase the period to nine months for several different programmes – which was put into decree in April – in an effort to combat social security fraud, as well as to standardise the system.

The changes, which will go into effect at the start of 2025, do not affect access to healthcare – foreigners can still access French public healthcare as long as they have been resident here for a minimum of three months. 

Similarly, the rules for accessing chômage (unemployment benefits) have not changed yet. Currently, you must have worked for at least six months out of the last 24 months to be eligible, as well as meeting other criteria including how you left your previous job.

This may change in the future, however, with the French government poised to reform the unemployment system again.

READ MORE: How France plans cuts to its generous unemployment system

Which benefits are affected?

The old-age benefit – or the ASPA – will apply the new nine month requirement. Previously, people needed to be in France for at least six months out of the year to qualify.

If you receive this benefit already, you will probably get a letter in the mail in the near future informing you of the change – this is a form letter and does not necessarily mean that your benefits will change.

If you are already a recipient – and you live in France for at least nine months out of the year – then you do not need to worry about your access to the ASPA changing.

If you want to access this benefit, it is available to certain foreigners, even though it is intended to help elderly (over 65) French citizens with low state pensions.

It is only available to foreigners who have been living legally in France for at least 10 years, and starting in 2025 you will need to spend nine out of 12 months a year in France. You can find more information at THIS French government website.

Otherwise, prestations familiales, or family benefits will be affected by the new nine month residency rule. These are available to foreigners with valid residency cards, as long as their children also live in France.

This includes the family allowance (given out by CAF), which is available for families on low incomes with more than two children, as well as the ‘Prime à la Naissance’, which is a means-tested one-off allowance paid in the seventh month of pregnancy to effectively help with the start-up costs of becoming a parent, will also be affected by the new nine month residency rule. 

READ MORE: France’s family benefit system explained

If you receive these benefits already, then you will likely receive a letter explaining the changes shortly.

And finally – the RSA, which is the top-up benefit for people with little to no income, was already held to the nine month standard, so there will be no residency-related changes.

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