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CLIMATE CRISIS

MAPS: The parts of France set to be underwater as sea levels rise

The map of France is changing due to climate change. These are are primary areas in France that will be most impacted by rising tides:

Published: 15 November 2022 16:28 CET

MAPS: The parts of France set to be underwater as sea levels rise

Which parts of France are most at risk of rising sea levels? Photo: LOU BENOIST / AFP

France and its long coastline are unfortunately not slated to be spared from sea level rise.

According to the latest IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) estimates – in the best case scenario – the average level of the ocean will rise by at least 28 cm by 2100. However, based on the planet’s current trajectory, experts consider it more likely that sea level rise could increase by between 63 cm to 1.01 metres, should humanity fail to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

Should oceans rise by one metre, many parts of France would be severely impacted. The American research institute Climate Central sought to simulate what the world would look like with such a rise in sea levels, highlighting in red the land most at-risk to be underwater.

From the coastal area near Montpellier (Les Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer) becoming a peninsula to many of La Vendée’s beautiful beaches under water, here is how the face of France could change as a result of one metre of sea level rise:

The North

One metre of sea level rise would particularly impact the area from Calais to Dunkirk – a distance of almost 45 kilometres – as shown in the map below. Higher tides would cover areas up to 15-20 km inland, as well.

In Normandy, the collapse of cliffs, like those in Étretat has been a sign of rising waters, Denis Lacroix, a representative from the French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea told BFMTV.

He added that while coastal erosion is one sign, the sea will not “rise like a bathtub,” and that first there will be “extreme weather events.”

Another part of the English Channel coastline, the coastline south of the chic coastal town of La Touquet to Ault stands to be eroded by water, with some higher altitude sections spared, though destined – in a scenario of one metre sea level rise – to become islands.

That area includes the low lying Baie de Somme, and stunning villages such as Saint-Valery sur Somme and La Crotoy.

Parts of Normandy that could be impacted are the flood planes along the mouth of the Seine river near La Havre, and the national wetland park made up of the Cotentin & Bessin marshes, which is home to much wildlife and a diverse bird population on the Cotentin peninsular.

In Loire-Atlantique

Much of the mouth of the Loire river near Nantes will be under water amid these climate forecasts. Riverside parts of the city of Nantes will be impacted, though based on current projections city as a whole is set to mostly remain above water.

In La Vendée

The map shows significant portions of red in the area north of La Rochelle, particularly the regional Park of the Marais Poitevin – known for its canals and wetlands.

Some of La Vandée’s stunning beaches, like Plage des Becs could be underwater in 2100, if waters go up by one metre.

According to Lacroix, sea level rise is “an accelerating phenomenon,” as evidenced by the fact that “in the last century, the rise in sea level was two milimetres per year, but over the last twenty years it has been four milimetres.”

In Gironde and Charente-Maritime:

Most of the coastline north of Bordeaux to Rochefort could be underwater by 2100.

One symbol of coastal erosion in Gironde is the building Le Signal, in Soulac-sur-Mer. When it was built in 1967, it was 200 metres from the shore, and in 2022 it was only about ten meters from the water.

« Le Signal » / Soulac-sur-Mer#Érosion #Littoral #Médoc #Gironde pic.twitter.com/7Y3pw5DUM3

— Jean-Philippe Vriet (@JeanPhilipVriet) January 1, 2021

There is particular concern for the Lacanau area in Gironde, which has a population density on its coasts which is “2.5 times higher than the national average,” according to France’s ministry of environment. In the coming years, inhabitants in this area may have to be evacuated due to sea level rise.

On the Mediterranean

Finally, along the Mediterranean, the coastline of the Hérault département will be particularly affected. This area is mostly located near Montpellier, as shown below:

There is considerable risk for the Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer to become a peninsula over time.

The map below from France’s Ministry of Ecology shows which parts of the country are at risk of rising sea levels, but also forest fires and flooding.

How will France will be affected by climate change, from forest fires to coastal flooding. Image: Ministry of Ecology

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Explained: How dangerous are French heatwaves?

A recent report highlighted the potential risks to athletes’ health if this summer’s Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games take place during a heatwave. The report, backed by climate scientists and athletes, warned of the potentially fatal risks of high temperatures at this year’s Games.

While most people are unlikely to be trying to break a 100m record during a heatwave – or any other time in fact – high temperatures bring with them serious risks to health.

Mercury rising

Any temperatures in France are getting higher, the country has endured a series of record heatwaves in recent years.

The all-time temperature record for Paris is 42.6C, set during a heatwave in 2019. It’s entirely possible this record won’t last long – 2022 was the hottest year on record in France, with a record 33 days meeting officially defined heatwave conditions: five in June and 14 in both July and August.

Vérargues, in the southern Hérault département, holds the highest recorded temperature in France – 46C set on June 28th, 2019.

The highest national average temperatures in France were recorded later in the year: August 5th, 2003, saw an average national temperature of 29.47C, followed by July 25th, 2019, when the average daily temperature was 29.4C.

And remember – air conditioning is not standard in French homes.

Health risks

There is no question that heatwaves can be fatal – some 400 people died in France in a two-week heatwave in August 2023 when new local temperature records were set around the country, according to public health data.

Over the whole of last summer, some 5,000 excess deaths were recorded between June 1st and September 15th, 2023, of which 1,500 were attributed to the heat.

Over the same period, nearly 20,000 heat-related emergency calls were recorded, according to a report by Santé Publique France published in February this year, and 10,600 additional hospitalisations followed a visit to the emergency department during periods of high temperature.

The risk is highest among the elderly or people with chronic health conditions, but also at risk are outdoor workers and people exercising – including hiking – during the hottest part of the day.

The government issues weather warnings – ranging from yellow (be aware) to red (potential risk to life) during heatwaves and we would strongly advise people to take notice and follow the advice, even if you come from a hot country.

Climate trends

And it seems that the situation is not going to get better soon, even if the response has improved.

“By the end of the century, heatwaves will be more frequent, more intense, and spread over a period from May to October,” warned France’s Haut Conseil pour le climat (High Council for the Climate) in a report in 2021.

Around 80 percent of the French population will experience 16 to 29 abnormally hot days each year over the three decades to come, as climate change takes hold according to a 2022 study by national statistics institute Insee – with Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Occitanie the most affected regions.

It estimates that more than 9 million people will have to endure more than 20 extremely hot days each year in the years to come. Nighttime temperatures will also rise, with some areas seeing up to 19 abnormally hot nights each year, compared to seven between 1976 and 2005.

The phenomenon of ‘tropical nights’ – where the temperature does not drop below 23C even at night – is linked to sleepless nights and heat stress, as the body does not get the chance to cool itself.

Meanwhile, Santé Publique France’s figures underline the impact of high temperatures during heatwaves, it said, and confirmed the need for measures throughout the country, and for a reinforced strategy of adaptation to climate change, to reduce the impact of heat on health.

The unusual Pentecôte public holiday in France, when many people work ‘for free’ by donating that day’s salary a government ‘solidarity fund’ for the elderly, was introduced in 2005 following the disastrous 2003 heatwave, when more than 15,000 French people, most of them elderly, died in the sweltering temperatures.

Heat islands

The particular problem with Paris – and other major conurbations – is that it is a noted ‘urban heat island’, where temperatures can be up to 10C warmer than in the surrounding countryside, due to a combination of human activities, concrete surfaces that reflect heat, and heat pollution such as air conditioning units and cars.

The phenomenon also leads to significantly warmer nighttime temperatures, as heat accumulates during the day but cannot escape in the same way it might in a less dense environment – making for sticky nights that make it hard to sleep and increase the effects of heat stress, especially among the elderly or ill.

Emergency plans

One thing that has improved in recent years is how France deals with its heatwaves.

After 2003’s fatal summer, the French government introduced new protocols to protect the public whenever the temperature rises above a certain threshold.

Today, when the temperature soars, the government issues health advice on staying safe, which includes: drinking plenty of water to stay hydrated, staying indoors during the hottest part of the day (afternoon and early evening), keeping in the shade, exercising only during the coolest parts of the day (early morning and late nights) and eating regular meals.

Most cities now have heatwave plans. Parks stay open at night and ‘cool rooms’ open up to give those in at-risk groups a chance to be taken somewhere they can cool down.

Fire risk

Extreme temperatures and long periods without rain also increase the risk of wildfires.

The year 2022 was the worst on record for wildfires in France. In total 72,000 hectares, or an area seven times the size of Paris, burned over the summer.

Overall, 90 percent of fires are caused by humans – either deliberately or accidentally. But while casually throwing away a cigarette is objectively dumb, heatwaves can – and do – increase the risk of fires.

Where weather conditions do have a major effect is in turning what would perhaps have been a containable fire into a wildfire that devours thousands of hectares of ground and prompt evacuations.

High temperatures make it more likely that fires will start, but drought conditions cause these fires to spread – parched vegetation with no moisture catches extremely easily. In the height of summer, large parts of the south of France are particularly at risk of wildfires.

This is far from a new phenomenon. It’s why there has always been a wildfire ‘season’ in the hottest months of the year and why wildfires are much less common – though not unheard of – in winter.

In October 1970, 11 people died in a wildfire near France’s far southeastern border with Italy and in 1985 an inferno in the same area killed five volunteer firefighters.

Deaths are more unusual today, thanks to improved techniques and technology, but the fires themselves are getting more common, bigger and occur over a wider geographical area.

Poor air quality resulting from wildfire smoke can be a serious health risk to those with respiratory conditions.

If you live in an area where wildfires are common, make sure you sign up to the government emergency text alert system so you get the latest advice on whether you need to evacuate. You can also keep track of the risk of wildfire in your area by checking the government’s forest fire map, which is updated daily.

And you have legal obligations, too, relating to keeping your property as clear as possible of fire hazards during key wildfire periods.

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