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GERMANY AND UKRAINE

Facing uncertain future, Ukrainians struggle to adapt in Germany

In her previous life in southern Ukraine, Tetiana Chepeliova was an accountant. In Berlin, she is unemployed, like the 16 other Ukrainian women with whom she is learning German in a course aimed at helping them integrate into society.

Facing uncertain future, Ukrainians struggle to adapt in Germany
German teacher Petra Schulte gives a German language lesson to Ukrainian women refugees in Berlin, Germany, on October 21, 2022. Photo: Tobias Schwarz/AFP

The 47-year-old is one of more than a million Ukrainians who have fled to Germany since Russia’s invasion in February. Among the European Union countries, only Poland has welcomed more.

The influx has put huge pressure on local authorities with Interior Minister Nancy Faeser recently describing the situation as “tense”.

But unlike in 2015, when huge protests stoked by the far-right erupted over the arrival of Syrians and Iraqis fleeing war, this time there have been few dissenting voices over the influx.

Instead, a key challenge is turning out to be the “major uncertainty” faced by the Ukrainians, said Benjamin Beckmann, who oversees integration programmes at Germany’s federal office for migration and refugees.

For many of them — mostly women and children — it remains an open question whether or not they will return to their homeland once the war is over, he added.

Qualifications not recognised

At a language school in a residential district of the German capital, Chepeliova is among a group of Ukrainians learning to navigate the German language.

When AFP visited, she was learning basic terms to express herself during a visit to the doctor.

The courses consist of three hours of classes a day, offered free to Ukrainians for nine months.

“The are extremely motivated,” said teacher Petra Schulte. But Schulte also senses the frustration of her class, which has just one male student. They include a mechanical engineer, a dentist, a doctor, nurses,
and a piano teacher.

“They have worked for years… and suddenly, their qualifications are not recognised, and they cannot practise” their professions, the teacher said.

Chepeliova fled the southern city of Kherson after it fell to the Russians in March. Today, she sees her future in Germany: “It is the best place for me. The country is super welcoming towards Ukrainians.”

Her 12-year-old son found German school difficult at first but “after spending a weekend with his class, it is as if a wall fell — he was no longer frightened of speaking German”.

Other women however want eventually to return to Ukraine, where they have left loved ones behind.

“None of them seem happy in the role of housewife,” observed Schulte, 63.

She even questioned sometimes why she was teaching them when they might end up returning home, she admitted.

For now, while the Ukrainians weigh up their future in Europe’s biggest economy, Schulte and others like her can only support them in their journey to adapt in Germany.

“The will to help has not weakened,” she said.

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GERMANY AND UKRAINE

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

For German residents, there is reason to fear a Russian victory in Ukraine. A new mass exodus of refugees would create bottlenecks in housing, childcare and schools, among other issues.

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

Recent news from Ukraine has been bleak. The surge in missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian power plants over recent weeks has plunged whole districts of the capital into darkness for hours on end.

Kyiv has outlined a five-point strategy to weather the storm, including electricity rationing, urging help from abroad, receiving more air defence systems, and overhauling the grid.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week said Ukraine needed “quick” and “cost-effective” repair work ahead of winter.

“We need your equipment and financial support to respond now and maintain normal life,” he told a reconstruction conference in Berlin.

While a plan to use frozen Russian assets for war-torn Ukraine dominates G7 talks in Italy on Thursday, there are voices in Germany – especially among the far-right AfD party – that would rather Germany cut off all its support for Ukraine. But these pro-Russian positions, veiled as arguments for peace, tend to ignore how dramatically a Russian victory in Ukraine would shake Germany.

An investigation by Tagesspiegel looked at what exactly a Russian victory would mean for people living in Germany. Here are the main impacts.

Germany would need to dramatically increase military spending

Andreas Schwarz, the SPD budgeter responsible for the defence budget has warned that if Ukraine lost the war, Germany would be forced to spend even more money on defence in one fell swoop.

Russia would suddenly be at the NATO border in Europe feeling militarily superior.

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter suggests that Germany would run out of ammunition after a few days in the event of a direct war. Kiesewetter has called for at least three percent of Germany’s gross domestic product to be invested in armaments.

Germany has made efforts to up its defence spending recently, but it is still unclear if the country will maintain a two percent GDP target for defence spending going forward.

But a sense of urgent need to ramp up Germany’s military defences does seem to be growing. On Wednesday Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a plan to bring back conscription to the armed forces.

Recently, former British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey estimated that a Ukrainian defeat would cost the West collectively trillions of dollars.

READ ALSO: Is Germany gearing up to reintroduce compulsory military service?

Pistorius with members of the army

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (centre left) and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (centre right) stand with Ukrainian and German soldiers during a visit to a military training area in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, north-eastern Germany, on June 11, 2024. Photo by Jens Büttner / POOL / AFP

Higher prices

Ukraine is one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world and also has stocks of rare earths and critical minerals.

A Russian takeover of the country would likely spell massive price fluctuations for goods like Ukrainian grain – which would spell increased grocery prices in Germany as a start, according to many economic projections.

More war refugees in Europe

Migration researcher Gerald Knaus told the Tagesspiegel that a Russian victory in Ukraine could “turn another ten million people into refugees”.

In parts of eastern Ukraine, such as the metropolis of Kharkiv, Russia has been wearing down peoples’ will to stay with near constant bombardment. 

Hundreds of thousands of people living there regularly go without electricity due to destroyed substations and infrastructure. Kharkiv alone is home to 1.3 million, including 200,000 internally displaced persons.

According to Eurostat, since the beginning of the war, 4.3 million Ukrainians have fled to neighbouring European countries. At 1.27 million, Germany has taken in the majority.

READ ALSO: Two years later, two Berlin residents from Ukraine on how war affects their lives

Germany’s interior ministries don’t expect tensions to ease soon. The Federal Office for Migration (BAMF) continues its efforts to distribute refugees across the country, but there is no doubt that in many places resources are running thin.

Helmut Dedy, Chief Executive of the Association of German Cities has called on federal and state governments to provide more facilities.

Increased pressure on the welfare system

Many refugees from Ukraine, and indeed many refugees broadly, are dependent on state benefits for some period of time after arriving in Germany.

As of January the employment rate among refugees from Ukraine was around 25 percent. In December of last year 710,000 Ukrainians received citizen’s allowance.

Refugees are obliged to apply for a work permit in Germany before they can join the workforce. Additionally they face a language barrier, and many of their professional qualifications may not be immediately recognised.

School and day care spots running thin

Since the outbreak of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nearly 220,000 children and young people who have fled the country have enrolled in German educational institutions.

So far German states have managed to handle the situation relatively quietly, but there is reason to believe that further stress on the system would be more than it can take.

A Ukrainian student in a German classroom

A name badge with an Ukrainian name seen in an international class at the Max-Ernst comprehensive school (Gesamtschule) in Cologne. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)

The president of the North Rhine-Westphalian Teachers’ Association suggests that the region he represents is already at its limit.

The German Association of Cities and Towns and the Association of Towns and Municipalities (DStGB) have also identified a shortage of school and day care places, as well as shortages of language courses and staff for integration services.

Germany’s educational system has already shown signs of stress – in the form of teachers’ strikes and school dropouts – before an additional influx of students are added into the mix.

Exacerbating the housing shortage

In response to the initial wave of incoming Ukrainian refugees, a section of the Building Code was enacted which allowed for the construction of new refugee accommodation without a development plan.

In some places, especially in parts of eastern Germany with growing vacancies, the influx of Ukrainians actually helped to stabilise the housing market.

But in cities where a severe shortage of housing has already been growing for years, there is no doubt that any number of incoming residents only adds stress.

Such is not only the case in popular cities like Berlin, Hamburg or Munich. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, the local Ministry of the Interior sees municipalities facing a major challenge in providing housing.

READ ALSO: ‘Tense housing situation’: Why a Berlin renter can’t be evicted for two years

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter emphasises that the aforementioned impacts on German life are not yet a foregone conclusion. He told Tagesspiegel that Ukraine could still defend itself and restore its 1991 borders according to international law, “But only if we support them accordingly and stop setting red lines for Ukraine and us”.

With reporting by AFP.

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