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2022 DANISH ELECTION

A dent in political credibility can cost parties in Denmark thousands of votes, researcher warns

Credibility plays a role when it comes to politicians' likelihood of being elected. Therefore, it is not surprising that the recent coverage of Danish Conservative Party leader Søren Pape Poulsen's private life affected opinion poll figures.

Voting booth
A dent in political credibility can hit a party really hard at the polls. Photo by Arnaud Jaegers / Unsplash

Kasper Møller Hansen, an election researcher at the University of Copenhagen, warns that a dent in political credibility can hit a party hard on election day – especially if it’s the leader’s credibility.

“It may affect many (voters) in the short term. However, in the end, the policy is still the most important thing for the vast majority of voters,” he says.

According to the latest political opinion poll conducted by the analysis institute Voxmeter for Ritzau, the Conservatives have 11.4 percent of the vote.

That is a significant drop from the 16.2 percent of the vote that the party had in a poll on September 5.

Media attention

According to Møller Mortensen, part of the decrease is probably due to the fact that there have been many articles in the media about the Conservative Party’s leader.

Recently, many media reports focused on Pape’s private life, several indiscretions, and the fact that he referred to Greenland as “Africa on ice.”

Since then, Pape Poulsen has apologized to the Greenlandic member of parliament, Aaja Chemnitz, for his statements about Greenland, according to Ekstra Bladet.

The coverage has clearly hurt the Conservatives, Møller Hansen says.

When it comes to the credibility of politicians, hypocrisy can be very damaging when it comes to reputation – especially in cases that can be linked to one’s politics.

For example, if a transport minister is caught driving too fast, or if a politician eagerly talks about sending children to public schools but sends their own children to a private school, that can be perceived as hypocritical, the election researcher says.

“It may take some time before you win back what (note: the credibility) you lost,” he adds.

The case of Løkke Rasmussen

Kasper Møller Hansen highlights the case of the former Liberal Party leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who got in trouble in 2014-2015 in a spending scandal regarding clothing bought for him by his political party.

“In that case, we could actually see that up to 200,000 votes could be attributed to the weakened credibility that Løkke had in the eyes of the voters,” the election researcher says.

The scandal’s effect was reflected in the subsequent measurements of the party’s and party leader’s credibility.

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POLITICS

Denmark’s Social Democrats overtaken by left-wing ally in new poll

The Socialist People’s Party (Socialistisk Folkeparti, SF) has become the party with the most support in Denmark for the first time in a new opinion poll.

Denmark’s Social Democrats overtaken by left-wing ally in new poll

A new poll from Voxmeter places SF as Denmark’s largest party, should it be replicated in an election vote, with an 18.8 percent share of the vote.

The Social Democrats, traditionally the largest party on the left, received 18.4 percent in the poll. That represents a large drop in support compared to the 2022 general election, when the Social Democrats gained 27.5 percent and went into coalition government with two parties on the right of centre.

The poll result for SF gives it a share 8.3 percent larger than it gained in 2022 and continues the centre-left group’s recent success after becoming the largest Danish party in the EU parliament in the EU elections this month.

Speaking on EU election night, SF leader Pia Olsen Dyhr said the party’s excellent result could be used as a “catalyst” for a new political landscape in Denmark.

The EU election result can fuel further gains for SF when the next general election comes around, Dyhr said in the midst of her party’s celebrations.

“There’s an alternative to this government. There’s an alternative that wants [more] welfare and [to do more for] the climate and we are willing to deliver this in the EU parliament,” she told broadcaster DR.

“It gives us a tailwind and enthusiasm for the party and it means people will be even more ready for local elections next year and the general election further ahead,” she said.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Is left-wing party’s EU election win good news for foreigners in Denmark?

Another notable observation from the poll is that is the worst for the Social Democrats since the 2022 election and since Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen became the party’s leader in 2015.

In 2013, when former leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt was prime minister, the party’s polls dropped as low as 15.8 percent, but they recovered after Frederiksen took over to win the 2019 election.

The other two parties in the coalition government – the Moderates and Liberals (Venstre) – are also struggling in opinion polls.

The new poll gives the Liberals 9.7 percent – compared to 14.7 percent at the EU election and 23.5 percent in 2019.

For the Moderates, the 6.5 percent polling is better than the 5.9 percent achieved by the party in the EU election, but less than the 9.3 percent it gained in 2023.

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