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UKRAINE

Russia halts gas supplies to Germany

Russia has halted gas deliveries to Germany via a key pipeline for an indefinite period after saying Friday it had found problems in a key piece of equipment, a development that will worsen Europe's energy crisis.

Nord Stream 1 pipeline
Part of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. Photo: Bildnachweis picture alliance/dpa | Jens Büttner

Russian gas giant Gazprom said Friday that the Nord Stream pipeline due to reopen at the weekend would remain shut until a turbine is repaired.

In a statement, Gazprom indicated it had discovered “oil leaks” in a turbine during a planned three-day maintenance operation.

Gazprom added that “until it is repaired… the transport of gas via Nord Stream is completely suspended”.

Resumption of deliveries via the pipeline which runs from near St Petersburg to Germany under the Baltic Sea, had been due to resume on
Saturday.

READ ALSO: Germany plans more LNG capacity as Russian gas dwindles

Gazprom said it had discovered the problems while carrying out maintenance with representatives of Siemens, which manufactured the turbine in a compressor station that pushes gas through the pipeline.

On its Telegram page it published a picture of cables covered in a brown liquid.

Earlier in the day, the Kremlin warned the future operation of the Nord Stream pipeline, one of Gazprom’s major supply routes, was at risk due to a lack of spare parts.

“There are no technical reserves, only one turbine is working,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

“So the reliability of the operation, of the whole system, is at risk,” he said, adding that it was “not through the fault” of Russian energy giant Gazprom.

The turbine-maker Siemens Energy said in a statement that the oil leaks blamed by Gazprom was “not a technical reason for stopping operation”.

“Such leakages do not usually affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site,” it said, adding that it was “not contracted for maintenance work”.

Following the imposition of economic sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has reduced or halted supplies to different European nations, causing energy prices to soar.

The Kremlin has blamed the reduction of supplies via Nord Stream on European sanctions which it says have blocked the return of a Siemens turbine that had been undergoing repairs in Canada.

Germany, which is where the turbine is located now, has said Moscow is blocking the return of the critical piece of equipment.

Berlin has previously accused Moscow of using energy as a weapon.

The announcement by Gazprom comes the same day as the G7 nations said they would work to quickly implement a price cap on Russian oil exports, a move which would starve the Kremlin of critical revenue for its war effort.

Gazprom also announced the suspension of gas supplies to France’s main provider Engie from Thursday after it failed to pay for all deliveries made in July.

READ ALSO: ‘It’s going to be a bleak winter’: How people in Germany are coping with the energy crisis

‘Much better position’

As winter approaches, European nations have been seeking to completely fill their gas reserves, secure alternative supplies, and put into place plans to reduce consumption.

A long-term halt to Russian gas supplies would complicate efforts by some nations to avoid shortages and rationing, however.

Germany said Friday its gas supplies were secure despite the halt to deliveries via Nord Stream.

“The situation on the gas market is tense, but security of supply is guaranteed,” a spokeswoman for the economy ministry said in a statement.

The spokeswoman did not comment on the “substance” of Gazprom’s announcement earlier Friday but said Germany had “already seen Russia’s unreliability in the past few weeks”.

German officials have in recent times struck a more positive tone about the coming winter.

Before the latest shutdown, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany was now “in a much better position” in terms of energy security, having achieved its gas storage targets far sooner than expected.

Europe as a whole has also been pushing ahead with filling its gas storage tanks, while fears over throttled supplies have driven companies to slash their energy usage.

Germany’s industry consumed 21.3 percent less gas in July than the average for the month from 2018 to 2021, said the Federal Network Agency.

Agency chief Klaus Mueller has said such pre-emptive action “could save Germany from a gas emergency this winter”.

Europe as a bloc meanwhile has been preparing to take emergency action to reform the electricity market in order to bring galloping prices under control.

Fear of shortages of natural gas has driven futures contracts for electricity in France and Germany to record levels.

European consumers are also bracing for huge power bills as utilities pass on their higher energy costs.

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GERMANY AND UKRAINE

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

For German residents, there is reason to fear a Russian victory in Ukraine. A new mass exodus of refugees would create bottlenecks in housing, childcare and schools, among other issues.

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

Recent news from Ukraine has been bleak. The surge in missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian power plants over recent weeks has plunged whole districts of the capital into darkness for hours on end.

Kyiv has outlined a five-point strategy to weather the storm, including electricity rationing, urging help from abroad, receiving more air defence systems, and overhauling the grid.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week said Ukraine needed “quick” and “cost-effective” repair work ahead of winter.

“We need your equipment and financial support to respond now and maintain normal life,” he told a reconstruction conference in Berlin.

While a plan to use frozen Russian assets for war-torn Ukraine dominates G7 talks in Italy on Thursday, there are voices in Germany – especially among the far-right AfD party – that would rather Germany cut off all its support for Ukraine. But these pro-Russian positions, veiled as arguments for peace, tend to ignore how dramatically a Russian victory in Ukraine would shake Germany.

An investigation by Tagesspiegel looked at what exactly a Russian victory would mean for people living in Germany. Here are the main impacts.

Germany would need to dramatically increase military spending

Andreas Schwarz, the SPD budgeter responsible for the defence budget has warned that if Ukraine lost the war, Germany would be forced to spend even more money on defence in one fell swoop.

Russia would suddenly be at the NATO border in Europe feeling militarily superior.

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter suggests that Germany would run out of ammunition after a few days in the event of a direct war. Kiesewetter has called for at least three percent of Germany’s gross domestic product to be invested in armaments.

Germany has made efforts to up its defence spending recently, but it is still unclear if the country will maintain a two percent GDP target for defence spending going forward.

But a sense of urgent need to ramp up Germany’s military defences does seem to be growing. On Wednesday Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a plan to bring back conscription to the armed forces.

Recently, former British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey estimated that a Ukrainian defeat would cost the West collectively trillions of dollars.

READ ALSO: Is Germany gearing up to reintroduce compulsory military service?

Pistorius with members of the army

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (centre left) and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (centre right) stand with Ukrainian and German soldiers during a visit to a military training area in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, north-eastern Germany, on June 11, 2024. Photo by Jens Büttner / POOL / AFP

Higher prices

Ukraine is one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world and also has stocks of rare earths and critical minerals.

A Russian takeover of the country would likely spell massive price fluctuations for goods like Ukrainian grain – which would spell increased grocery prices in Germany as a start, according to many economic projections.

More war refugees in Europe

Migration researcher Gerald Knaus told the Tagesspiegel that a Russian victory in Ukraine could “turn another ten million people into refugees”.

In parts of eastern Ukraine, such as the metropolis of Kharkiv, Russia has been wearing down peoples’ will to stay with near constant bombardment. 

Hundreds of thousands of people living there regularly go without electricity due to destroyed substations and infrastructure. Kharkiv alone is home to 1.3 million, including 200,000 internally displaced persons.

According to Eurostat, since the beginning of the war, 4.3 million Ukrainians have fled to neighbouring European countries. At 1.27 million, Germany has taken in the majority.

READ ALSO: Two years later, two Berlin residents from Ukraine on how war affects their lives

Germany’s interior ministries don’t expect tensions to ease soon. The Federal Office for Migration (BAMF) continues its efforts to distribute refugees across the country, but there is no doubt that in many places resources are running thin.

Helmut Dedy, Chief Executive of the Association of German Cities has called on federal and state governments to provide more facilities.

Increased pressure on the welfare system

Many refugees from Ukraine, and indeed many refugees broadly, are dependent on state benefits for some period of time after arriving in Germany.

As of January the employment rate among refugees from Ukraine was around 25 percent. In December of last year 710,000 Ukrainians received citizen’s allowance.

Refugees are obliged to apply for a work permit in Germany before they can join the workforce. Additionally they face a language barrier, and many of their professional qualifications may not be immediately recognised.

School and day care spots running thin

Since the outbreak of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nearly 220,000 children and young people who have fled the country have enrolled in German educational institutions.

So far German states have managed to handle the situation relatively quietly, but there is reason to believe that further stress on the system would be more than it can take.

A Ukrainian student in a German classroom

A name badge with an Ukrainian name seen in an international class at the Max-Ernst comprehensive school (Gesamtschule) in Cologne. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)

The president of the North Rhine-Westphalian Teachers’ Association suggests that the region he represents is already at its limit.

The German Association of Cities and Towns and the Association of Towns and Municipalities (DStGB) have also identified a shortage of school and day care places, as well as shortages of language courses and staff for integration services.

Germany’s educational system has already shown signs of stress – in the form of teachers’ strikes and school dropouts – before an additional influx of students are added into the mix.

Exacerbating the housing shortage

In response to the initial wave of incoming Ukrainian refugees, a section of the Building Code was enacted which allowed for the construction of new refugee accommodation without a development plan.

In some places, especially in parts of eastern Germany with growing vacancies, the influx of Ukrainians actually helped to stabilise the housing market.

But in cities where a severe shortage of housing has already been growing for years, there is no doubt that any number of incoming residents only adds stress.

Such is not only the case in popular cities like Berlin, Hamburg or Munich. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, the local Ministry of the Interior sees municipalities facing a major challenge in providing housing.

READ ALSO: ‘Tense housing situation’: Why a Berlin renter can’t be evicted for two years

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter emphasises that the aforementioned impacts on German life are not yet a foregone conclusion. He told Tagesspiegel that Ukraine could still defend itself and restore its 1991 borders according to international law, “But only if we support them accordingly and stop setting red lines for Ukraine and us”.

With reporting by AFP.

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