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POLITICS

How likely is Denmark to have a general election ahead of schedule?

Analysts in Denmark say Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen could announce a general election as early as next week, despite flagging poll numbers.

How likely is Denmark to have a general election ahead of schedule?
PM Mette Frederiksen. A general election in Denmark in the coming weeks is considered a likely eventuality. Photo: Søren Bidstrup/Ritzau Scanpix

Speculation suggests that Frederiksen will announce an election, which could take place by October but possibly earlier, when the Social Democrats convene next week for their summer group meeting. 

Legally, the next general election can take place as late as June 4th, 2023. 

But despite worsening polls, a general election in Denmark this autumn now appears likely due to increasing pressure on Frederiksen from other parties and heightened criticism of her government.

“It will not be possible to make any new, broad political agreements on this side of a general election. There’s no willingness to compromise between parties. So Danish politics is already frozen by the election campaign, even though it hasn’t been formally announced yet,” TV2’s political editor Hans Redder said last week.

Redder said it was “relatively probable” that Frederiksen will announce an election in August.

“The political season begins next week. Several parties will have their summer group meetings and start calling press briefings. So it’s just a question of which date Mette Frederiksen decides on,” Redder said.

The Social Liberal (Radikale Venstre) party, which is an ally of the government, has demanded Frederiksen call a general election by October 4th.

Although a new general election is not due until next year, the Social Liberals earlier in the summer said they wanted an election by October after the government and Frederiksen were severely criticised earlier this summer in an official inquiry into the mink scandal.

The Social Liberals have the ability to bring down the government by withdrawing their support for Frederiksen and bringing an no confidence motion in parliament, although it’s not certain they would actually do this.

In addition to the mink scandal, Frederiksen’s government has been damaged by a high-profile case centred around leaks at intelligence service Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste (FE), as well as broader criticism of her leadership style.

“(Frederiksen) really needs some wins and we have not heard much about what their election platform will be. That will come when the 2030 (political) plan is presented,” political analyst Hans Engell told news wire Ritzau.

“Bad opinion polls are not conducive to an early general election and it doesn’t seem as though there is complete clarity over their 2030 plan. They are probably keeping all their options open,” he said.

Talk of an early election comes despite poll numbers looking as bad for the government as they have at any time since they came to power in 2019.

A new opinion poll by Voxmeter for news agency Ritzau on Monday gave the Social Democrats their worst showing since 2015. 

The ‘blue bloc’ — anchored by the Liberal party (Venstre) and the Conservative party — command 50 percent of the vote according to the latest poll.

Meanwhile, the government’s ‘red bloc’ holds just 47.5 percent. 

The demands that Frederiksen hold elections by October at the latest come from the Social Liberals, also of the red bloc.

The ‘bloc’ classification commonly referred to in Danish politics broadly denotes whether parties are right or left of centre.

‘Blue bloc’ parties will usually work together in parliament and back the leader of the Liberal party to be prime minister if they can command a majority after a general election. The ‘red bloc’ will usually support the Social Democratic leader to become PM, as is currently the case with Frederiksen.

READ ALSO: Danish PM Frederiksen loses majority in ‘neck and neck’ new poll

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POLITICS

Denmark’s Social Democrats overtaken by left-wing ally in new poll

The Socialist People’s Party (Socialistisk Folkeparti, SF) has become the party with the most support in Denmark for the first time in a new opinion poll.

Denmark’s Social Democrats overtaken by left-wing ally in new poll

A new poll from Voxmeter places SF as Denmark’s largest party, should it be replicated in an election vote, with an 18.8 percent share of the vote.

The Social Democrats, traditionally the largest party on the left, received 18.4 percent in the poll. That represents a large drop in support compared to the 2022 general election, when the Social Democrats gained 27.5 percent and went into coalition government with two parties on the right of centre.

The poll result for SF gives it a share 8.3 percent larger than it gained in 2022 and continues the centre-left group’s recent success after becoming the largest Danish party in the EU parliament in the EU elections this month.

Speaking on EU election night, SF leader Pia Olsen Dyhr said the party’s excellent result could be used as a “catalyst” for a new political landscape in Denmark.

The EU election result can fuel further gains for SF when the next general election comes around, Dyhr said in the midst of her party’s celebrations.

“There’s an alternative to this government. There’s an alternative that wants [more] welfare and [to do more for] the climate and we are willing to deliver this in the EU parliament,” she told broadcaster DR.

“It gives us a tailwind and enthusiasm for the party and it means people will be even more ready for local elections next year and the general election further ahead,” she said.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Is left-wing party’s EU election win good news for foreigners in Denmark?

Another notable observation from the poll is that is the worst for the Social Democrats since the 2022 election and since Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen became the party’s leader in 2015.

In 2013, when former leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt was prime minister, the party’s polls dropped as low as 15.8 percent, but they recovered after Frederiksen took over to win the 2019 election.

The other two parties in the coalition government – the Moderates and Liberals (Venstre) – are also struggling in opinion polls.

The new poll gives the Liberals 9.7 percent – compared to 14.7 percent at the EU election and 23.5 percent in 2019.

For the Moderates, the 6.5 percent polling is better than the 5.9 percent achieved by the party in the EU election, but less than the 9.3 percent it gained in 2023.

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