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UKRAINE

Germany probing several hundred possible Russian war crimes

German police said on Saturday that they were investigating several hundred potential Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

Germany probing several hundred possible Russian war crimes
Russian soldiers patrol the premises of the Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol, which is controlled by the government of the Donetsk People's Republic. Photo: 13th June 2022, Picture Alliance/DPA/AP

“Up until now we have received a three-digit number of leads,” Holger Muench, head of the Germany’s federal police, told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper on Saturday

The inquiry does not only cover suspected perpetrators of war crimes but also political and military officials, he said.

“It’s the most difficult part of our inquiry, intricate puzzle work,” he added.

“Our clear goal is to identify those responsible for atrocities, to prove their actions through our investigations and bring them to justice,” including in Germany.

Germany is operating under universal jurisdiction, which allows a foreign country to prosecute crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide, regardless of where they were committed.

However “that may take time” because investigations linked to the Ukraine conflict are only at their “very beginning”, Muench said.

The BKA is being helped in its inquiries by Germany’s foreign intelligence service among others which has for instance recorded the radio conversations of Russian soldiers.

German investigators could also be sent to Ukraine, Muench said, adding however that they would need an international mandate to do so.

The UN’s Ukraine commission on Wednesday confirmed receiving multiple allegations of rights abuses by Russian forces, but said it was too early to say whether they constituted war crimes.

READ MORE: Germany’s Scholz vows military backing for Ukraine for ‘as long as needed’

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GERMANY AND UKRAINE

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

For German residents, there is reason to fear a Russian victory in Ukraine. A new mass exodus of refugees would create bottlenecks in housing, childcare and schools, among other issues.

What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

Recent news from Ukraine has been bleak. The surge in missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian power plants over recent weeks has plunged whole districts of the capital into darkness for hours on end.

Kyiv has outlined a five-point strategy to weather the storm, including electricity rationing, urging help from abroad, receiving more air defence systems, and overhauling the grid.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week said Ukraine needed “quick” and “cost-effective” repair work ahead of winter.

“We need your equipment and financial support to respond now and maintain normal life,” he told a reconstruction conference in Berlin.

While a plan to use frozen Russian assets for war-torn Ukraine dominates G7 talks in Italy on Thursday, there are voices in Germany – especially among the far-right AfD party – that would rather Germany cut off all its support for Ukraine. But these pro-Russian positions, veiled as arguments for peace, tend to ignore how dramatically a Russian victory in Ukraine would shake Germany.

An investigation by Tagesspiegel looked at what exactly a Russian victory would mean for people living in Germany. Here are the main impacts.

Germany would need to dramatically increase military spending

Andreas Schwarz, the SPD budgeter responsible for the defence budget has warned that if Ukraine lost the war, Germany would be forced to spend even more money on defence in one fell swoop.

Russia would suddenly be at the NATO border in Europe feeling militarily superior.

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter suggests that Germany would run out of ammunition after a few days in the event of a direct war. Kiesewetter has called for at least three percent of Germany’s gross domestic product to be invested in armaments.

Germany has made efforts to up its defence spending recently, but it is still unclear if the country will maintain a two percent GDP target for defence spending going forward.

But a sense of urgent need to ramp up Germany’s military defences does seem to be growing. On Wednesday Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a plan to bring back conscription to the armed forces.

Recently, former British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey estimated that a Ukrainian defeat would cost the West collectively trillions of dollars.

READ ALSO: Is Germany gearing up to reintroduce compulsory military service?

Pistorius with members of the army

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (centre left) and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (centre right) stand with Ukrainian and German soldiers during a visit to a military training area in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, north-eastern Germany, on June 11, 2024. Photo by Jens Büttner / POOL / AFP

Higher prices

Ukraine is one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world and also has stocks of rare earths and critical minerals.

A Russian takeover of the country would likely spell massive price fluctuations for goods like Ukrainian grain – which would spell increased grocery prices in Germany as a start, according to many economic projections.

More war refugees in Europe

Migration researcher Gerald Knaus told the Tagesspiegel that a Russian victory in Ukraine could “turn another ten million people into refugees”.

In parts of eastern Ukraine, such as the metropolis of Kharkiv, Russia has been wearing down peoples’ will to stay with near constant bombardment. 

Hundreds of thousands of people living there regularly go without electricity due to destroyed substations and infrastructure. Kharkiv alone is home to 1.3 million, including 200,000 internally displaced persons.

According to Eurostat, since the beginning of the war, 4.3 million Ukrainians have fled to neighbouring European countries. At 1.27 million, Germany has taken in the majority.

READ ALSO: Two years later, two Berlin residents from Ukraine on how war affects their lives

Germany’s interior ministries don’t expect tensions to ease soon. The Federal Office for Migration (BAMF) continues its efforts to distribute refugees across the country, but there is no doubt that in many places resources are running thin.

Helmut Dedy, Chief Executive of the Association of German Cities has called on federal and state governments to provide more facilities.

Increased pressure on the welfare system

Many refugees from Ukraine, and indeed many refugees broadly, are dependent on state benefits for some period of time after arriving in Germany.

As of January the employment rate among refugees from Ukraine was around 25 percent. In December of last year 710,000 Ukrainians received citizen’s allowance.

Refugees are obliged to apply for a work permit in Germany before they can join the workforce. Additionally they face a language barrier, and many of their professional qualifications may not be immediately recognised.

School and day care spots running thin

Since the outbreak of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nearly 220,000 children and young people who have fled the country have enrolled in German educational institutions.

So far German states have managed to handle the situation relatively quietly, but there is reason to believe that further stress on the system would be more than it can take.

A Ukrainian student in a German classroom

A name badge with an Ukrainian name seen in an international class at the Max-Ernst comprehensive school (Gesamtschule) in Cologne. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)

The president of the North Rhine-Westphalian Teachers’ Association suggests that the region he represents is already at its limit.

The German Association of Cities and Towns and the Association of Towns and Municipalities (DStGB) have also identified a shortage of school and day care places, as well as shortages of language courses and staff for integration services.

Germany’s educational system has already shown signs of stress – in the form of teachers’ strikes and school dropouts – before an additional influx of students are added into the mix.

Exacerbating the housing shortage

In response to the initial wave of incoming Ukrainian refugees, a section of the Building Code was enacted which allowed for the construction of new refugee accommodation without a development plan.

In some places, especially in parts of eastern Germany with growing vacancies, the influx of Ukrainians actually helped to stabilise the housing market.

But in cities where a severe shortage of housing has already been growing for years, there is no doubt that any number of incoming residents only adds stress.

Such is not only the case in popular cities like Berlin, Hamburg or Munich. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, the local Ministry of the Interior sees municipalities facing a major challenge in providing housing.

READ ALSO: ‘Tense housing situation’: Why a Berlin renter can’t be evicted for two years

German defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter emphasises that the aforementioned impacts on German life are not yet a foregone conclusion. He told Tagesspiegel that Ukraine could still defend itself and restore its 1991 borders according to international law, “But only if we support them accordingly and stop setting red lines for Ukraine and us”.

With reporting by AFP.

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