Turkey’s Erdogan says Le Pen’s defeat in French election a ‘win’

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen's defeat in the French election as a "win", saying that the world suffered because of extremism, local media reported on Saturday.

Published: 1 May 2022 14:32 CEST

France's President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend a bi-lateral meeting on the sidelines of a NATO summit at NATO Headquarters in Brussels on March 24th, 2022. Photo by WOLFGANG RATTAY, AFP

Le Pen, 53, failed to unseat President Emmanuel Macron last weekend but achieved an historic score of 41.5 percent.

Erdogan, who in the past has traded barbs with Macron, hailed the election result.

“To put it correctly, the elimination and defeat of extremist ends in French elections is, in my opinion, a win because whatever we suffer is because of extremism,” Erdogan was quoted as saying by Hurriyet daily and several other media outlets, in comments to journalists on his plane back from Saudi Arabia.

Erdogan said he had hoped Macron would win and praised the French president for leading a “very smart” election strategy, especially during the debate.

“God willing, with the result of this election, our relations will be in a much better position,” he added.

Over the last few years, Turkey has been embroiled in a series of disputes with France and its EU partners, from tensions in the eastern Mediterranean to the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The row escalated in 2020 when France moved to crack down on Islamist extremism after several attacks on its soil.

Erdogan, a pious Muslim, described Macron at the time as “trouble for France” and said he hoped that France would “get rid” of Macron “as soon as possible”.

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Cohabitation

The far-right Rassemblement National of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and current party leader Jordan Bardella are tipped to be the party with most seats after the second round on July 7th.

If the RN and its allies did secure a majority in the Assemblée Nationale – and current polling suggests this is doubtful – Macron would find himself in a “cohabitation“, in which the president and government are from opposing parties.

Post-war France has experienced three such forced marriages. All were between the left and the centre-right with the last from 1997-2002 between President Jacques Chirac and Socialist premier Lionel Jospin.

Cohabitation: What happens in France’s political ‘forced marriages’?

A cohabition between the Macron and his far-right arch-enemies would likely be a much unhappier affair.

While the far-right would be able to implement part of its domestic programme, on, for example, curtailing immigration, only the president can call a referendum or trigger a vote on constitutional changes.

The president, who usually sets foreign and defence policy, could also find his hands tied if the RN appointed nationalist defence and foreign ministers opposed to his worldview.

Coalition

France has spurned coalitions since the post-war 4th Republic (1946-1958) when the country went through 22 governments in 12 years.

Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to cobble together alliances in parliament on a vote-by-vote basis or to force through legislation without a vote rather than form a pact with another party.

The RN or the left could try do the same if they fall short of a majority but a minority government of the far-right or left would likely fail to pass a vote of no confidence.

Aware of the risks, RN leader Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister unless he wins an outright majority.

Macron’s camp hopes that in the event of a hung parliament it could form a coalition with moderates of the left and right.

As part of its outreach to possible allies, Macron’s party has not entered candidates in 67 constituencies where centre-right or centre-left candidates are running.

But Macron has limited his options by putting the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — the dominant force in the NFP — on a par with the far-right in what he calls the country’s “extremes”. He accuses LFI of anti-Semitism, which it rejects.

Caretaker government

Another option would be for Macron to appoint a technocratic non-partisan government which all parties could get behind.

Camille Bedock, a political scientist at the Emile Durckheim centre in Bordeaux, cites the example of Italy, where respected former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi formed a national unity government in 2021 when Italy was in turmoil. It lasted a year-and-a-half.

Bedock said Macron could also decide to leave the current government headed by his party’s Gabriel Attal in place in a caretaker capacity for a year. He could then call new elections.

This would have the benefit of ensuring continuity through the Olympic Games (July 26th – August 11th) when the country will be under intense global scrutiny.

Whether the far-right or left would support such a move, which would effectively buy Macron time to try turn around his presidency, is highly uncertain.

Macron resigns

The most dramatic scenario would see Macron resign if faced with the prospect of being neutered by the far right or the hard left.

Le Pen, who is expected to try succeed Macron in 2027 presidential polls, has warned that he “will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis”.

Macron has vowed to remain on office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.

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