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EXPLAINED: The plan to lessen Ukraine war impact on Spain’s economy

The Spanish government on March 28th unveiled its investment of €16 billion to address the issue of spiralling living costs in Spain caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Here are the measures that cover everything from jobs to rent, fuel, electricity and benefits.

EXPLAINED: The plan to lessen Ukraine war impact on Spain's economy
A lorry driver puts some petrol in his vehicle at a petrol station in Pamplona on March 15, 2022. - Energy prices have risen sharply in recent months, driven by strong demand triggered by the revival of the economy following the covid-19 epidemic. This dynamic accelerated considerably after the start of the war in Ukraine on February 24, especially in the European Union. (Photo by ANDER GILLENEA / AFP)

On Monday March 28th, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez unveiled details of the long-awaited emergency response plan to Spain’s economic struggles in the face of runaway inflation and rising prices.

This follows an ongoing truck drivers’ strike, production stoppages, mass protests by farmers and fishermen, all adding to a period of social discontent in Spain, one that’s being replicated elsewhere in Europe.

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Of the €16 billion promised, the Spanish government will release “approximately €6.0 billion in direct aid and tax rebates and €10 billion in state-guaranteed loans to cushion the impact of the crisis on families and businesses”, Sánchez told a business forum on Monday.

So what are the measures proposed and which are likely to come into effect in the coming days?

Ban on layoffs and other job-protecting measures 

Spanish employers will not be able to sack any employees until June 30th under the government’s plans.

“Companies will be able to resort to internal flexibility measures such as furlough (ERTE),” Sánchez pointed out on Monday about the scheme which was available to struggling businesses during most of the Covid-19 pandemic, having only ended last February. 

Although all the job protection measures are yet to be disclosed, Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz has hinted her department also wants to prevent company salaries from being lowered during this period of high inflation and sky-high energy costs.

Minimum bonus of 20 cents on every litre of fuel

The Spanish government plans include “a minimum reduction of 20 cents per litre of fuel”, Sánchez said.

The State will finance 15 cents whilst the oil companies will cover 5 cents, although Sánchez praised the fact that some multinationals have committed to subsidising an even higher cost. 

Last week, the government announced a similar reduction but only for lorry drivers, with the new reduction to impact everyone.

On March 28th 2022, average petrol prices in Spain ranged between €1.84 and €1.98 per litre, while diesel stood at between €1.86 and €1.95, according to dieselogasolina.com.

Minimum vital income will increase by 15 percent

This non-contributory benefit that Spain’s Social Security offers guarantees a minimum income to people without work or unemployment benefits.

The benefit, which ranges between €461 and €1,015 depending on different factors, will be increased on average by 15 percent. 

Extension of VAT reduction for electricity

The Spanish government reduced VAT on electricity bills from 21 percent to 10 percent in June 2021, deciding in December to extend the measure until April 2022, before the crisis in Ukraine pushed prices to even more exorbitant levels.

What is likely to happen next is that this drop in IVA (VAT in Spanish) will be extended yet again until further notice in order to help vulnerable consumers. 

This reduction in VAT on the bill will apply to all consumers with a contracted power of up to 10 kilowatts, provided that the average monthly price of the wholesale electricity market is above €45 per megawatt/hour (Mwh).

More cost-cutting energy measures

Even though they didn’t set a final amount, the Spanish government has announced it will put a “cap” on the price of gas for the production of electricity as an “exceptional” measure that will reportedly not curtail incentives for renewables nor distort the market, and will allow “electricity prices to be significantly lowered immediately. 

This will be approved shortly across Europe, Sánchez said, “and the next day it will be published in the Spanish BOE bulletin with immediate effect on the electricity bill”. 

Additionally, there will continue to be a temporary suspension of the 7 percent tax on electricity production.

Spanish authorities also plan to add 600,000 more vulnerable families to the country’s social energy tariffs, taking the total up to 1.9 million households.

READ ALSO: How to apply for a discount on your Spanish electricity bill 

Rents can’t be raised by more than 2 percent 

Landlords will not be able to increase the rent of tenants by more than 2 percent for the next three months. 

One of the consequences of the rise of the Consumer Price Index in Spain is that many landlords are using this general increase in costs to raise the rents of their tenants.

This is legal, but only in certain circumstances.

Renting in Spain: Can my landlord put up my rent due to rising inflation?

Money to support different sectors

There will be a new line of credit guarantees of a value of €10 billion offered by Spain’s Official Credit Institute to cover liquidity needs caused by the temporary increase in the cost of energy and fuel, as well as extended grace periods for repayment. 

The government has also promised an aid package of €362 million for the agriculture and livestock sector, and another of about €68 million for Spain’s fishing sector. 

As for the industrial sector, a large consumer of energy that has suffered the rise in prices in particular, €500 million will be allocated to help soften the economic blow.

A further €450 million in direct aid will be offered to freight and passenger transport companies. Depending on the type of vehicle, the amount they receive will vary from €1,250 per truck, €900 per bus, €500 per van and €300 per taxi.

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LIFE IN SPAIN

More foreigners and people living alone: What Spain will be like in the future

Within three decades, new data reveals that there will continue to be more deaths than births in Spain, population growth will be mainly due to immigration and a third of all households will be occupied by a single person.

More foreigners and people living alone: What Spain will be like in the future

Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) has released a report revealing what the country will look like all the way up to 2074. The figures have been based on how the population will evolve if current demographic trends continue.

Spain’s population will grow by five million

Spain currently has 48,692,804 inhabitants, but this number is set to grow by an extra 5 million by 2039. It’s important to note that the growth will not be equal across the country, and will only focus on specific areas. Much of the country will continue to suffer from depopulation.

Catalonia and Madrid will be the two regions with the greatest growth, with nearly 1.2 million and one million respectively. The greatest relative increases, however, will be recorded in the Balearic Islands (19.0 percent), Valencia (19 percent ) and Murcia (17.2 percent).

On the other hand, the steepest declines will be seen in Asturias (-4.1 percent), Extremadura (-3.4 percent) and Castilla y León (-0.7 percent).

READ ALSO: Growing number of foreigners drives Spain’s population rise

28 percent of the population will be over 65

Spain’s population is growing older and older, and by 2042, 28 percent will be over age 65 compared to the current 20.4 percent. Fast forward to 2055, and this will reach 30.5 percent.

Six percent of the population of Spain has already turned 80, but in 2074 this will double, reaching 12.3 percent. And within 15 years the number of even older people will practically triple. Centenarians will exceed 46,000 compared to nearly 17,000 this year.

Birthrates will increase

Spain’s birthrate has been in decline over recent years, but starting this year, it will begin to grow until 2042. The data predicts that 5.5 million children will be born in the next 15 years,  and the average number of children per woman will grow slightly, going from 1.16 registered this year to 1.24 in 2038.

In 2042, birthrates will begin to fall again, but from 2058 they will rise once more, due to more people having reached fertile ages. The number of births is also thought to be boosted by immigration, with more and more foreigners moving here and having children too.

But, the 5.5 million babies predicted to be born here between 2024 and 2038, will still be 8.7 less than those born in the previous 15 years.

Over a quarter of the population will have been born outside Spain

Spain’s population will not only grow thanks to increasing birthrates but more so because of the numbers of foreigners continuing to move here.

By 2039, the INE predicts that a total of 28.7 percent of the people living in Spain will have been born outside of the country. And by 2074 that figure will reach 39 percent.

This means the population born in Spain is set to gradually decrease, going from 81.9 percent today to 61 percent within 50 years.

READ ALSO: Spain needs 25 million foreign workers to keep its pensions afloat

7.7 million will live alone

It seems that Spaniards are increasingly choosing to live or will be forced to live on their own, with stats revealing that by 2039, one-third of households in the country will only be occupied by a single person.

This equates to 7.7 million single-person homes, compared to the current 5.4 million. In fact, in 2039 the most common type of household will be that of a single person – 33.5 percent of the total, ahead of the 31 percent of two-person households.