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2022 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Today in France: The latest from the election trail

From killer comments to mathematical models, here's the Monday roundup from the election trail as France prepares to head to the polls and elect its next president.

Published: 28 March 2022 17:08 CEST

Today in France: The latest from the election trail

Extreme right candidate Eric Zemmour's rally at Trocadero, Paris. Photo by BERTRAND GUAY / AFP

Killer comments

Politicians from across the political spectrum have condemned the crowd at Eric Zemmour’s Sunday rally who were filmed chanting ‘Macron assassin‘ (murderer Macron).

Zemmour himself has also condemned the chanting, but has frequently attacked Macron for what he calls his “lax” approach to immigration, and linked it to terror attacks that have killed scores of French people since 2015 (although many of the terrorists were French citizens, born in France).

After the rally, Zemmour has said that he didn’t hear what his supporters were chanting, prompting Macron to remark on “one of the most important reforms of my presidential term” – hearing aids are now 100 percent covered on state health insurance.

« Macron assassin »: E.#Macron répond à E.#Zemmour: « 2 hypothèses : l’indignité. La deuxième : la méconnaissance d’une réforme du quinquennat, le 100 % santé. Les prothèses auditives sont remboursées par la sécurité sociale, j’invite le candidat malentendant à s’équiper » pic.twitter.com/RAvTIBBGQu

— Guillaume Daret (@GuillaumeDaret) March 28, 2022

Macron rally

Macron himself has finally hit the campaign trail with a public walkabout event in Dijon. He will hold his first major election rally of the campaign on Saturday, at the La Défense arena in Paris.

Although his announcement that he was standing for re-election contained a paragraph saying that he would not be able to campaign ‘normally’ because of the war in Ukraine, Macron has come in for increasing criticism in recent days – including from some of his own supporters – for appearing disengaged from the the campaign trail.

Negativity

Valérie Pecresse is still out of in-person campaigning with Covid, but her team say they ‘hope’ she will be testing negative and out of isolation by this evening in time for a debate on Europe 1. Her earlier attempt at a zoom interview for France 2’s politics show was marked with technical difficulties.

If not, her team says she should be fit to restart campaigning later in the week with events in the Hauts-de-France, in the north of the country.

Polls

There are of course dozens of polls on the French presidential elections, but The Economist is trying a slightly different model, assessing the mathematical probability of a win by the various candidates.

Macron remains the strong favourite. Our model gives him a 90% probability of victory. But that figure has been sliding back since he announced his plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65. It is always worth recalling that low-probability events do happen pic.twitter.com/VTtgODqG03

— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) March 27, 2022

Mugs

With social media an important campaign tool for any modern politician, more and more Twitter and Instagram accounts are flooded with political messages and pictures of politicians out shaking hands or handing out leaflets.

But if you want something a little more left-field, head over to the Instagram account of finance minister Bruno Le Maire.

For anyone who likes pictures of men holding cups, I can highly recommend the Instagram of French finance minister Bruno Le Maire. Cup content 5/5 ☕ pic.twitter.com/rsgQLuVPm8

— Emma Pearson (@LocalFR_Emma) March 26, 2022

Candidates’ debates

Monday marks the start of the ‘official’ campaign, which means the broadcast media is governed by strict rules on giving all candidates equal airtime.

On Monday evening a joint debate has been organised by Europe 1, Paris Match magazine and the Journal du Dimanche newspaper, which will be broadcast via social media. As of Monday morning, Fabien Roussel, Anne Hidalgo, Marine Le Pen, Yannick Jadot and Valérie Pécresse had accepted the invitation.

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Cohabitation

The far-right Rassemblement National of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and current party leader Jordan Bardella are tipped to be the party with most seats after the second round on July 7th.

If the RN and its allies did secure a majority in the Assemblée Nationale – and current polling suggests this is doubtful – Macron would find himself in a “cohabitation“, in which the president and government are from opposing parties.

Post-war France has experienced three such forced marriages. All were between the left and the centre-right with the last from 1997-2002 between President Jacques Chirac and Socialist premier Lionel Jospin.

Cohabitation: What happens in France’s political ‘forced marriages’?

A cohabition between the Macron and his far-right arch-enemies would likely be a much unhappier affair.

While the far-right would be able to implement part of its domestic programme, on, for example, curtailing immigration, only the president can call a referendum or trigger a vote on constitutional changes.

The president, who usually sets foreign and defence policy, could also find his hands tied if the RN appointed nationalist defence and foreign ministers opposed to his worldview.

Coalition

France has spurned coalitions since the post-war 4th Republic (1946-1958) when the country went through 22 governments in 12 years.

Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to cobble together alliances in parliament on a vote-by-vote basis or to force through legislation without a vote rather than form a pact with another party.

The RN or the left could try do the same if they fall short of a majority but a minority government of the far-right or left would likely fail to pass a vote of no confidence.

Aware of the risks, RN leader Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister unless he wins an outright majority.

Macron’s camp hopes that in the event of a hung parliament it could form a coalition with moderates of the left and right.

As part of its outreach to possible allies, Macron’s party has not entered candidates in 67 constituencies where centre-right or centre-left candidates are running.

But Macron has limited his options by putting the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — the dominant force in the NFP — on a par with the far-right in what he calls the country’s “extremes”. He accuses LFI of anti-Semitism, which it rejects.

Caretaker government

Another option would be for Macron to appoint a technocratic non-partisan government which all parties could get behind.

Camille Bedock, a political scientist at the Emile Durckheim centre in Bordeaux, cites the example of Italy, where respected former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi formed a national unity government in 2021 when Italy was in turmoil. It lasted a year-and-a-half.

Bedock said Macron could also decide to leave the current government headed by his party’s Gabriel Attal in place in a caretaker capacity for a year. He could then call new elections.

This would have the benefit of ensuring continuity through the Olympic Games (July 26th – August 11th) when the country will be under intense global scrutiny.

Whether the far-right or left would support such a move, which would effectively buy Macron time to try turn around his presidency, is highly uncertain.

Macron resigns

The most dramatic scenario would see Macron resign if faced with the prospect of being neutered by the far right or the hard left.

Le Pen, who is expected to try succeed Macron in 2027 presidential polls, has warned that he “will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis”.

Macron has vowed to remain on office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.

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